Why Arizona Will Turn Blue Again
I’ve lived in Arizona for over 20 years, and I’ve watched our state transform into a purple swing state. Many people forget that Bill Clinton narrowly won Arizona in 1996. The writing was already on the wall for the gradual change to blue state status even back then.
Arizona is a Youthful State
Many people think that Arizona is mainly populated with older people and retirees. They are certainly here, but overall, Arizona is a youthful state. The median age in Arizona is 38.8. As we’ve been seeing lately in the polls, the youth vote is swinging towards Kamala by large margins.
Large Hispanic Population
32% of our population is Hispanic. Again, as we’ve seen in recent polls, this group of voters is swinging towards Kamala.
Native American Voters Vote Democratic
There are 22 federally recognized Native American tribes in Arizona. They make up a small percentage of the population, but they vote heavily democratic. These voters have been frequently credited for swinging elections in favor of democrats in Arizona. And more of them are being registered to vote for this election. We have some great diarists on Daily Kos who have written about the importance of the Native American vote in Arizona.
Maricopa County’s Growth
Home to Phoenix and its environs, Maricopa county was up until recently the fastest growing county in the US. It has now dropped down to the 4th fastest growing county in the nation. Where are those voters coming from?
The leading contributors to Maricopa County’s population inflows were California, with 36,965 individuals, followed by Washington, with 10,756, and Texas, with 9,538. It is important to note that these figures represent inflows and not net flows, highlighting only the number of people moving into Maricopa County.
I’m going to surmise that the majority of those new voters will vote for democrats. Maricopa is also the largest county in Arizona. However Maricopa swings on election night, so goes the state. This is why Trump had a hissy fit when Fox News called Arizona first for Biden in 2020 after those Maricopa County vote tallies came in. Watch for Maricopa County results on election night.
Independent Voters Matter
Arizona’s electorate is roughly divided into thirds—1/3 Republicans, 1/3 Democrats, 1/3 Independents. In my experience, Arizona Independents are a proud and feisty bunch. They take elections seriously, and they sway them here. Kamala is winning them now:
She also led the Republican nominee among the potentially key demographic in Arizona (51 percent to 45 percent) and North Carolina (48 percent to 46 percent).
Kari Lake is on the Ballot–Again
Enough said. Trump’s handmaiden. She ran for Governor a few years ago and lost. She’s now running for the open Senate seat that Sinema is leaving. Our great democratic candidate, Ruben Gallego, is polling way ahead of her for this seat. She is pretty much despised in Arizona. She will lose handily, and she will take Trump down with her.
McCain Republicans Do Not Like Trump
There are still a lot of McCain Republicans in Arizona. The former Senator was well-liked and respected here. Trump’s trash talking about John McCain has earned him no favors in Arizona. McCain’s widow, Cindy McCain, endorsed Biden for President in 2020. We’re still waiting to see if she does the same for Kamala in this election. His daughter, Meghan McCain also hates Kari Lake:
Lake and Megan McCain, a political commentator and former host of The View, have long held a feud after Lake made a series of disparaging remarks about John McCain and the moderate Republican influence he still holds in Arizona.
And this:
“Kari Lake is trying to walk back her continued attacks on my Dad (& family) and all of his loyal supporters after telling them to ‘get the hell out,'” McCain wrote in a social media post on Tuesday. “Guess she realized she can’t become a Senator without us.”
“We see you for who you are – and are repulsed by it,” she added.
Abortion is on the Ballot
The nation was shocked by this:
The Arizona Supreme Court gave the go-ahead Tuesday to prepare to enforce a long-dormant law that bans nearly all abortions, drastically altering the legal landscape for terminating pregnancies in a state likely to have a key role in the presidential election.
The law predating Arizona’s statehood provides no exceptions for rape or incest and allows abortions only if the mother’s life is in jeopardy. Arizona’s highest court suggested doctors can be prosecuted under the 1864 law, though the opinion written by the court’s majority didn’t explicitly say that.
And pissed off Arizona voters responded in kind by submitting a huge number of voter signatures for an abortion ballot initiative (more than double what was needed to get on the ballot and the largest citizen initiative in Arizona’s history):
The Arizona Abortion Access Campaign, which aims to enshrine the procedure as a right in the state constitution, announced it filed 823,685 total signatures on Wednesday, the deadline for petition sheets to be handed over to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office for review. The initiative needs just 383,923 verified voter signatures to be placed on the November ballot.
Dawn Penich, a spokeswoman for the campaign, touted it as a record-breaking achievement, and said it highlighted the popularity of the initiative among Arizonans.
“This is the most signatures ever submitted by a citizens’ initiative in Arizona history,” she said, to raucous cheering during a Wednesday morning news conference. “To put that into context: that means one in every five Arizona voters signed this petition.”
This ballot initiative will likely increase voters for Kamala.
We Mainly Vote by Mail and Love It
Arizonans have eagerly adopted early voting by mail. We have about a month to submit our ballots before the election by mail. It is hugely popular and drives up turnout significantly:
Voting by mail remains incredibly popular in Arizona, with almost 90% of ballots in 2020 cast by mail and around 75% of voters signed up to receive early ballots in 2022.
And when we vote, we win.
The Mormons Don’t Like Trump
About 6% of Arizona’s population is Mormon. The Mormons have many qualms with Trump. See Mitt Romney. The Mormon Mayor of Mesa, Arizona, (John Giles) also recently endorsed Kamala and spoke at the DNC convention:
The Mormon vote is up for grabs in Arizona.
Arizonans Like Our Economy
I thank Simon Rosenberg for this:
Arizona Republicans Are in Disarray
There is infighting, and there are indictments for election interference. MAGA has thrown the Republican party into chaos here.
We Like Being Part of the Blue Southwestern Wall
I’m purely speculating with this one, but I believe Arizonans want to be part of the club with our popular blue neighbors (New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada). We need to join the blue Southwestern Wall.
Democrats Control the Levers of Power
We have a democratic Governor (Katie Hobbs), a democratic Secretary of State who runs the elections (Adrian Fontes), and a democratic Attorney General (Kris Mayes). They will all be paying close attention to any election interference. We also have democratic Senator Mark Kelly and his lovely wife, Gabby Giffords. (And soon to be democratic Senator Ruben Gallego.)
There are probably other reasons I haven’t considered on why Arizona will be blue again this election, so please feel free to share.
Vote Harris/Walz!
FAQs About Arizona’s Election Outlook
Here are the top 10 FAQs related to Arizona’s election outlook, based on the content from Daily Kos.
1. Why is Arizona considered a blue state in the 2024 election?
Arizona is considered a blue state in the 2024 election due to several factors, including demographic changes, increased voter registration, and a shift in voter preferences. The state has seen a growing number of young, urban, and minority voters who tend to lean Democratic.
2. What are the key demographics driving Arizona’s shift towards blue?
The key demographics driving Arizona’s shift towards blue include a growing Hispanic population, increasing numbers of young voters, and a rise in urbanization. These groups have historically been more likely to vote for Democratic candidates.
3. How significant is voter registration in Arizona’s election outlook?
Voter registration is highly significant in Arizona’s election outlook. The state has seen a substantial increase in voter registration, particularly among Democratic-leaning groups. This surge in registration is expected to favor Democratic candidates in the 2024 election.
4. What role do urban areas play in Arizona’s election dynamics?
Urban areas play a crucial role in Arizona’s election dynamics. Cities like Phoenix and Tucson have a higher concentration of Democratic voters. These urban centers are expected to contribute significantly to the overall blue vote in the state.
5. How do Hispanic voters impact Arizona’s election outcome?
Hispanic voters significantly impact Arizona’s election outcome. The Hispanic population in Arizona is growing, and this demographic tends to lean Democratic. Their increased participation and support for Democratic candidates are expected to play a crucial role in the state’s election dynamics.
6. What are the implications of Arizona’s shift towards blue for national politics?
The implications of Arizona’s shift towards blue for national politics are substantial. If Arizona remains a blue state, it could potentially flip the balance of power in the Senate or influence key national elections. This shift could also signal broader demographic changes that could impact future elections across the country.
7. How does Arizona’s economic landscape influence voter behavior?
AZ’s economic landscape influences voter behavior by affecting job security, economic stability, and overall quality of life. Voters often prioritize economic issues when casting their ballots, and Arizona’s economy has been experiencing growth, which could benefit Democratic candidates who often focus on economic policies that support working-class voters.
8. What role do environmental issues play in Arizona’s election dynamics?
Environmental issues play a significant role in Arizona’s election dynamics. The state has been at the forefront of environmental debates, particularly regarding water management and climate change. Democratic candidates often emphasize environmental protection, which resonates with many voters in the state.
9. How does Arizona’s history of close elections impact the 2024 election?
AZ’s history of close elections impacts the 2024 election by indicating that every vote matters. The state has seen several close contests in recent years, highlighting the importance of voter turnout and engagement. This history suggests that even small margins could determine the outcome of the election.
10. What are the key issues that will drive voter turnout in Arizona’s 2024 election?
The key issues driving voter turnout in AZ’s 2024 election include healthcare, education, immigration reform, and economic stability. These issues are often central to Democratic campaign platforms and tend to resonate with many voters in the state, particularly those from urban areas and minority communities.
