The Polls Are Tight!
The polls are tight! A polling error like in 2016 could doom Kamala Harris! That’s the message of pretty much the entire mainstream media and all of the polling experts. But there’s a dirty little secret that they aren’t telling you and hopefully after I share it with you, you’ll be able to breathe a little easier.
Keep Doing the Work
You should still be doing the work. You need to continue to donate your time, talent and/or treasure. But maybe you’ll be able to just breathe a little easier.
Comparing 2016 and 2024 Polls
I want to first share with you the final 2016 PA forecast from 538.
Why that looks a little more D friendly than the current PA forecast from 538!
Understanding the Numbers
I’m here to tell you it’s not. Clinton’s vote share from the last 10 PA polls was 46.7. Her final PA vote share was 47.6. That’s pretty close. The problem for Clinton was that Trump basically took almost all of the undecideds.
Could Trump Do It Again?
Well couldn’t he do that again this year?
I guess, but even if he took EVERY undecided, I’m still not sure he’d be able to catch Harris. Why? Because if you take the last nine polls (I’m excluding the bad poll from Redfield Wilson, you should too, but that’s an entirely different diary), Kamala Harris is at 49.11%.
Kamala Harris is Winning
Understand what’s going on friends. She’s winning. She’s going to win big. The media wants to keep this a horserace and pretend that this is 2016. It is not. Remember, since Dobbs Democrats across the board have OVERPERFORMED and the GOP and Trump (yes, look at his primary performances) have UNDERPERFORMED.
Stay Calm and Keep Working
You may now return to your previous freak out, but I hope you don’t.
FAQs on Polling Data
The following questions and answers address common inquiries about polling data and its interpretation.
1. What are the key factors that pollsters consider when conducting surveys?
Pollsters consider factors such as sample size, demographic representation, survey methodology, and response rates to ensure the accuracy of their results.
2. How do pollsters account for bias in their surveys?
Pollsters use techniques like random sampling and weighting to minimize bias. They also adjust for non-response bias by analyzing the characteristics of respondents and non-respondents.
3. What is the difference between a primary and secondary poll?
A primary poll is conducted by a reputable organization using robust methods, while a secondary poll aggregates data from multiple sources. Secondary polls can provide a broader view but may lack the depth of primary polls.
4. How reliable are online polls compared to traditional phone or in-person polls?
Online polls can be less reliable due to self-selection bias and lower response rates. Traditional methods like phone or in-person polls generally yield more accurate results because they ensure a more representative sample.
5. What role do demographic factors play in polling data?
Demographic factors such as age, gender, race, and socioeconomic status significantly influence polling results. Pollsters must ensure that their samples accurately reflect these demographics to produce reliable data.
6. How do pollsters handle issues related to voter turnout in their surveys?
Pollsters often use turnout models based on historical data and demographic trends to estimate voter participation. These models help in adjusting the sample to better reflect actual election outcomes.
7. What is the significance of margin of error in polling data?
The margin of error indicates the range within which the true result is likely to lie. A smaller margin of error suggests greater accuracy, while a larger margin indicates more uncertainty in the results.
8. How do polls account for undecided voters or those who do not identify with a particular party?
Polls often include categories for undecided voters or those who do not identify with a party. These groups are typically analyzed separately to understand their potential impact on election outcomes.
9. What are some common pitfalls that can affect the accuracy of polling data?
Common pitfalls include sampling errors, non-response bias, and methodological flaws. Additionally, external factors like changes in public opinion or unexpected events can also impact poll accuracy.
10. How do recent trends in technology influence modern polling practices?
Technological advancements have improved data collection methods through online surveys and advanced analytics tools. However, they also introduce new challenges like cybersecurity risks and the need for robust data validation processes.
