Kamala Harris Gaining Momentum After Debate
It’s still too soon to judge the full impact of the presidential debate, but early polls suggest that Kamala Harris might be on the rise. Most viewers thought she outperformed Donald Trump, and candidates who win debates often see a boost in the polls.
Polls Show Harris Closing the Gap
The highly respected Des Moines Register poll shows Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by only four points. This is a significant improvement from earlier when Trump led President Biden by 18 points in Iowa.
Vice President Kamala Harris has made up a lot of ground in Iowa, a state previously thought to be safely in Trump’s column. According to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Harris trails Trump by just 4 points, 47% to 43%. This is a big change from spring when Trump led Biden by 18 points.
Harris Making Strides in Alaska
Vice President Kamala Harris has also cut Trump’s lead in Alaska, a state that has been solidly red for six decades. New polling conducted by Alaska Survey Research shows Harris down by only 5 points among likely voters, with Harris at 42% and Trump at 47%.
Recent Polls Favor Harris
Here are some of the most recent polls:
- Data for Progress: Harris leads by 4 points, 50% to 46%, among 1,283 likely voters.
- YouGov: Harris up 49% to 45% among 1,090 likely voters with third-party candidates.
- YouGov: Harris leads 48% to 44% among 1,175 registered voters with third-party candidates.
- YouGov: Harris 50% to 46% among 1,090 likely voters without third-party candidates.
- YouGov: Harris leads 50% to 45% among 1,175 registered voters.
- TIPP: Harris leads 45% to 41% among 1,721 registered voters with third-party candidates.
- TIPP: Harris leads 47% to 43% among 1,721 registered voters without third-party candidates.
- IPSOS: Harris leads 51% to 46% among 2,196 likely voters with third-party candidates.
- IPSOS: Harris ahead 50% to 46% among 2,772 registered voters with third-party candidates.
- IPSOS: Harris ahead 51% to 45% among 3,276 adults with third-party candidates.
- IPSOS: Harris ahead 52% to 46% among 2,196 likely voters without third-party candidates.
- IPSOS: Harris leads 51% to 47% among 2,772 registered voters without third-party candidates.
- IPSOS: Harris ahead 51% to 46% among 3,276 adults without third-party candidates.
- Redfield & Wilton Strategies: Harris ahead 44% to 42% among 1,952 likely voters.
- IPSOS: Harris leads 43% to 39% among 1,690 adults without third-party candidates.
- IPSOS: Harris leads 47% to 42% among 1,405 registered voters without third-party candidates.
- Atlas Intel: Trump 51% to Harris 47% among 1,775 likely voters.
- Atlas Intel: Trump 51% to Harris 48% among 1,775 registered voters without third-party candidates.
- RMG Research: Harris 51% to Trump 47% among 2,756 likely voters without third-party candidates.
- Morning Consult: Harris 50% to Trump 45% among 3,317 likely voters without third-party candidates.
Fundraising Success
Vice President Harris raised $47 million in the 24 hours after the debate. The New York Times reports that the debate may widen the gap in fundraising between Harris and Trump. Large donors to Trump’s campaign expressed concern after his performance, while Democrats raised big money.
In September, Vice President Harris’s campaign raised $361 million, more than three times the amount raised by the Trump campaign. Her entrance into the election attracted a large number of new volunteers.
Volunteer Surge
Over 170,000 volunteers have signed up to help the Harris campaign with phone banking, canvassing, and other get-out-the-vote efforts. Election Day is 100 days away. “The momentum and energy for Vice President Harris is real,” said Michael Tyler, the campaign’s communications director.
Stronger Ground Game
Vice President Harris has a much stronger ground game than Donald Trump. Republican officials are worried that Trump’s campaign has invested fewer resources in voter turnout operations in battleground states compared to previous elections. The Harris campaign has roughly 375 staffers in Pennsylvania alone, compared to Trump’s smaller operation.
Voter Registration Surge
New voter registration numbers show a surge in favor of Democrats since Vice President Harris became the presumptive nominee. Women account for nearly 55% of all new registrants. In Texas, new registrants were +10 Democratic compared to +16 Republican during the same week in 2020. Young Black women are leading this surge, with registration nearly tripling compared to 2020.
Taylor Swift’s Endorsement
Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris on Instagram drove at least 337,826 visitors to Vote.gov. Swift released her endorsement right after the debate between Harris and Trump. This endorsement could be one of the most significant ever, especially since Trump himself acknowledged its impact by saying, “I hate Taylor Swift!”
Enthusiasm Among Harris Voters
Vice President Harris heads into the final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign boosted by a surge in enthusiasm among Democrats. This momentum could attract voters who would have otherwise sat out the election or reluctantly voted for Trump.
Now, we have to keep in mind that we have this asymmetry problem, but Vice President Kamala Harris has mostly resolved it. There are some 53% percent plus of voters who will not vote for Donald Trump.
