Why Seniors Are Leaning Towards Kamala Harris
Bill McKibben raises an important question about the voting patterns of seniors. It’s not just about Social Security and Medicare. Recent polls show some surprising trends among older voters.
Polling Data Shows Strong Support for Harris
Recent polls have shown that Kamala Harris is gaining significant support among older voters:
- A Fairleigh Dickinson poll showed Harris with a seven-point national lead, largely due to her 16-point lead among people over 65.
- A Suffolk University poll found Harris leading Trump 53-42 among voters over 60.
- In swing states like Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine, Harris has a notable lead among older voters.
- In Vermont, 61% of older voters think Trump’s mental and physical health are “very poor.”
Not All Polls Are Rosy, But Trends Are Clear
While some polls show Trump with a slight lead among seniors, these leads are minimal:
- A Washington Post poll showed Trump beating Harris by two points among older voters.
- A Pell Center poll had Trump up by three points.
However, it’s clear that Trump shouldn’t count on older voters.
Older Voters Care About Key Issues
Older voters are not as conservative as some might think. They care deeply about:
- Clean Air and Reproductive Rights: Many older voters want to conserve these essential rights.
- Climate Change: Older Americans have seen how drastically the climate has changed and want action.
- Abortion Rights: 86% of older Americans think abortion should be legal in certain circumstances.
- Democracy: January 6 was particularly shocking for those who have lived through many elections and value the peaceful transfer of power.
Polling May Not Capture the Full Picture
Polling can sometimes miss the mark. For example:
- In 2022, polls underestimated the margins by which Democratic women won statewide races.
- The Kansas abortion referendum was predicted to lose but won by around 20 points.
Special elections and new voter registrations also suggest that Democratic candidates are outperforming expectations.
Insights from the ABC/Ipsos Poll
A recent ABC/Ipsos poll showed a 6% margin for Harris among likely voters. Here are some key takeaways:
- Favorability Ratings:
- Kamala Harris: 46% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+3%)
- Tim Walz: 42% favorable, 31% unfavorable (+11%)
- Donald Trump: 33% favorable, 58% unfavorable (-25%)
- JD Vance: 32% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-12%)
- Honesty and Trustworthiness: 43% think Harris is honest and trustworthy compared to 25% for Trump.
- Mental Sharpness: 47% believe Harris has the mental sharpness to serve effectively, compared to 37% for Trump.
- Physical Health: 57% think Harris is in good enough physical health to serve, compared to 25% for Trump.
- Personal Values: 41% feel Harris represents their personal values, compared to 34% for Trump.
- Understanding Problems: 41% believe Harris understands their problems, compared to 33% for Trump.
The Impact of Historical Context
Many early to mid Baby Boomers grew up during the Eisenhower era and the 60s. This background may influence their reactions to Trump. They are more sensitive to threats posed by Trump, not just to social insurance programs, but also to other rights and traditions.
Looking Ahead
This election is shaping up to be different. With almost two months to go, many things could change. However, current trends suggest that this election may not be as close as the media portrays. If there’s a “Silver Wave” of older voters supporting Harris, Trump has no path forward.
Make of this what you will.
Peace.
Top 10 FAQs About a Potential Silver Wave for Harris-Walz
The article discusses the possibility of a “Silver Wave” in the 2024 elections, particularly focusing on the potential impact on Harris-Walz, a political duo. Here are the top 10 FAQs based on the content:
1. What is a Silver Wave in politics?
A Silver Wave refers to a demographic shift in voting patterns where older, more conservative voters begin to support progressive candidates, potentially altering the electoral landscape.
2. Who are Harris and Walz?
Harris and Walz are likely referring to Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, prominent figures in the Democratic Party. However, without specific context, it’s unclear if they are running together or if this is a hypothetical scenario.
3. How might a Silver Wave affect Harris-Walz’s campaign?
A Silver Wave could potentially increase support for Harris-Walz by attracting older voters who might otherwise vote for more conservative candidates. This demographic shift could be crucial in swing states or districts.
4. What are the key factors driving a Silver Wave?
The key factors driving a Silver Wave include generational changes, economic concerns, and shifting social values. Older voters may be more open to progressive policies as they become more aware of issues like healthcare, climate change, and economic security.
5. How does the Silver Wave differ from previous election trends?
The Silver Wave differs from previous trends by targeting an older demographic that has traditionally voted more conservatively. This shift could lead to unexpected victories for progressive candidates in areas where they were previously less competitive.
6. What role does economic policy play in a Silver Wave?
Economic policy plays a significant role in a Silver Wave as older voters become increasingly concerned about issues like Social Security, Medicare, and economic stability. Progressive candidates who address these concerns effectively may gain more support.
7. How does social policy influence voter behavior in a Silver Wave?
Social policy also influences voter behavior in a Silver Wave. Issues like healthcare, climate change, and social justice resonate strongly with older voters who are more likely to prioritize these concerns over traditional conservative values.
8. What are the potential risks for Harris-Walz if they rely on a Silver Wave?
The potential risks for Harris-Walz include overestimating the extent of the Silver Wave or failing to address specific concerns of older voters. Additionally, they must balance their appeal to this demographic with maintaining support from younger voters who may have different priorities.
9. How can Harris-Walz capitalize on the Silver Wave effectively?
Harris-Walz can capitalize on the Silver Wave by emphasizing policies that directly benefit older voters, such as improving healthcare, enhancing economic security, and addressing climate change. They should also engage in targeted outreach and messaging that resonates with this demographic.
10. What are the long-term implications of a Silver Wave for future elections?
The long-term implications of a Silver Wave could be profound, potentially leading to a more progressive electoral landscape. If successful, it could pave the way for future generations of progressive candidates to win elections by appealing to a broader range of voters.
