Abortion Rights and Voter Turnout
I was looking at previous ballot initiatives related to abortion rights in Ohio and Kansas and I was thinking we might see a similar surge of new voters in November in states that have these ballot initiatives.
States to Watch: Arizona, Nevada, and Florida
My analysis suggests that states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida may be on the brink of witnessing outcomes similar to those seen in Kansas and Ohio. The 2022 Kansas Abortion Amendment battle serves as a compelling case study.
Kansas: A Case Study
Opinion polls leading up to the vote suggested that the proposed state constitutional amendment—designed to eliminate the right to an abortion in Kansas—would pass by a narrow margin of 4 points. However, the actual results were a stunning rebuke to the amendment, as voters rejected it by a wide margin of 18 points, marking a 22-point swing from the polls. The final tally saw abortion rights advocates securing 543,855 votes, compared to 378,466 votes for those in favor of the amendment.
Unexpected High Turnout
The turnout was crazy considering it was not a midterm election nor a presidential election, which would mean a lower voter turnout. Yet, approximately 910,000 voters showed up—68% of the state’s 1.34 million voters from the 2020 general election. This surge was largely driven by the abortion rights ballot measure, underscoring the issue’s powerful ability to galvanize voters.
Strategic Ballot Placement
Note that the ballot initiative was strategically placed on the ballot on an off-year election so as to take advantage of what would normally be lower voter turnout. But they underestimated the passions.
Voices from the Ground
According to NPR…”Anti-abortion politicians put this amendment on the primary ballot with the goal of low voter turnout,” said Emily Wales of Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes, “but they discounted Kansans, who said loud and clear they believe and trust patients to make their own medical decisions.”
Ohio’s Similar Experience
A similar scenario played out in Ohio, where voters recently passed an amendment to protect abortion rights with 56.62% of the vote—nearly 2.2 million voters out of more than 3.8 million who cast ballots. This time, 67% of the 2020 presidential election voters turned up and 92% of the mid-term elections turnout.
Robust Turnout in Ohio
As per AP…”Voter turnout for Ohio’s amendment, including early voting, was robust for an off-year election. Issue 1’s approval will all but certainly undo a 2019 state law passed by Republicans that bans most abortions after fetal cardiac activity is detected, with no exceptions for rape and incest.”
Looking Ahead: Arizona, Nevada, and Florida
As Arizona, Nevada, and Florida approach their own pivotal elections, there is reason to believe that they could follow in the footsteps of Kansas and Ohio. If the polls in these states are underestimating the impact of a surge in voters motivated by abortion rights issues—particularly if those polls are off by more than 5 points—the final results could surprise many observers.
Florida’s Potential Impact
In Florida, I envision a scenario where Harris runs up the numbers in Miami Dade, Broward, Orange County, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas and even decrease deficits in the rural areas. This is very possible.
The Power of Abortion Rights on the Ballot
The lessons from Kansas and Ohio suggest that when abortion rights are on the ballot, they can dramatically alter the electoral landscape, mobilizing voters who might otherwise stay home and producing outcomes that defy expectations.
FAQs
1. Why Harris will win Arizona and Nevada by more than 5 points?
The author believes Harris will win Arizona and Nevada by more than 5 points due to strong Democratic voter turnout and the appeal of her progressive policies in these states.
2. What are the key factors contributing to Harris’s potential win in Arizona?
The key factors include a growing Hispanic population, increased voter registration, and the popularity of Harris’s stance on issues like healthcare and education.
3. How Harris will perform in Nevada?
The author predicts a strong performance in Nevada due to the state’s history of supporting Democratic candidates and the enthusiasm among young voters for Harris’s progressive agenda.
4. What role does voter turnout play in the author’s prediction for Arizona and Nevada?
Voter turnout is crucial, as the author expects high participation from Democratic voters, particularly among minorities and younger demographics, which could significantly impact the outcome in both states.
5. Why Harris might win Florida by only 1 point?
The author believes that while Florida is traditionally a swing state, Harris’s appeal to moderate voters and her ability to mobilize the Democratic base could result in a narrow victory.
6. What are some of the key issues that Harris is focusing on in her campaign?
The key issues include healthcare reform, climate change, education, and economic policies aimed at reducing inequality and promoting social justice.
7. How Harris’s campaign strategy will influence voter behavior in these states?
The author suggests that Harris’s campaign strategy of emphasizing personal stories and policy initiatives tailored to each state’s specific needs will resonate with voters and drive turnout.
8. What role do Hispanic voters play in the prediction for Arizona and Nevada?
Hispanic voters are seen as a crucial demographic in both states, with the author predicting strong support for Harris due to her commitment to issues like immigration reform and economic empowerment.
