Why Kamala Harris is Poised to Win
As we’re all aware, the polling looks tight, especially in the swing states. There is good reason to believe the “red shift” in polling methodology (in response to the 2020 misses) is overstating Republican support. Plenty of polling over the last two years has demonstrated this. But for the sake of this article, let’s assume the polls are more or less accurate and we really are looking at a nearly tied race with perhaps a slight advantage for Kamala Harris. If this is the case, then we are in great shape to win! Here’s why…
Turnout Will Decide the Winner
If two candidates are starting from a nearly equal amount of voter support, and there is only a small number of undecided voters, then winning will ultimately be decided on turnout. And so, if the polls today are indeed accurate, then this is a turnout race—meaning the winner will be the candidate who gets more of their supporters to the polls.
Three Key Factors for Turnout Predictions
With this in mind, there are three variables that can be used to inform turnout predictions:
- Enthusiasm
- Fundraising
- GOTV infrastructure
Right now, Kamala Harris is crushing Trump in all three! That isn’t being hyperbolic—she is genuinely destroying the Trump campaign in each of these categories.
We Are Winning on Enthusiasm
Since 2000, Gallup has asked voters in each election year, “Are you feeling more enthusiastic than usual about voting?” Gallup has released their first enthusiasm poll for 2024, and it shows that a whopping 78% of Democrats and Dem-leaners said they feel “more enthusiastic” compared to past elections (up from 54% in March when it was Biden), while only 64% of Republicans reported being enthusiastic.
That’s a significant 14-point spread! Only once since 2000 has there been an enthusiasm spread between the two major candidates larger than 10 points—that was Barack Obama who had a 29-point advantage over John McCain. When Trump won in 2016, he only had a 6-point advantage (52%-46%).
But more than that, Gallup said that Harris’s 78% is the highest Gallup has ever measured during a presidential general election campaign, and is just one point under the all-time high, which was 79% during the 2008 primary season. So yeah, Harris-Walz supporters are historically pumped to vote!
We Are Winning on Fundraising
We are now all aware of the fundraising gap between Harris and Trump. But the historical nature of the Harris fundraising haul cannot be overstated. Harris dominated in July fundraising, taking in $310 million (in only about 10 days!) compared to $139 million for Trump in the entire month. He actually did worse in August, taking in $130 million. That is not an indicator of a growing or excited base—especially when you compare it to the massive $300 million haul by the Harris-Walz campaign in the same month. They are so flush with money right now they are giving down-ballot campaign committees a $25 million gift!
Of course, money by itself doesn’t win elections. But it does indicate engagement and it is a critical resource for the tools and events needed to win this election. Speaking of that…
We Are Winning on GOTV
The Harris-Walz campaign already has a huge number of field offices in the battleground states. There are 26 in Georgia and 50 in Pennsylvania alone! More will certainly open as we get closer to November. And this is compared to Trump’s 42 field offices—that’s total, by the way. Although it looks like he might be closing up a few of those…
If you want more details on how Harris is dominating in the ground game, check out today’s Good News Roundup, which details things like:
- PA staff: Harris’s 1500 vs Trump’s 300.
- PA volunteers: Harris’s 400,000 vs Trump’s 14,000.
- Harris’s massive advertising advantage in most battleground states.
- Massive voter registration surges in our critical demographics.
- The potential “Silver Wave” of 65+ voters who are breaking for Harris by over 10 points and who are the most reliable voters by age.
When We Put It All Together…
If the polls are accurate and this is indeed going to be a turnout election, we have very good reason to feel optimistic. The Harris-Walz campaign is crushing it! And we can all do our part to help run up the score.
FAQs on Polls and Election Trends
The following questions and answers address common queries related to the recent polls and election trends.
1. What are the current polls indicating about the upcoming election?
The current polls suggest a tight race with both major parties showing strong support. However, the polls may not fully capture the nuances of voter sentiment and turnout.
2. Why are the polls not capturing the full picture of voter sentiment?
Polls often rely on sampling methods that might not accurately represent the diverse demographics of voters. Additionally, voter turnout and late-deciding voters can significantly impact election outcomes.
3. How do polls account for undecided voters?
Polls typically include a category for undecided voters, but these individuals can be difficult to predict. Their final decisions often depend on last-minute campaign events, debates, and other factors.
4. What role do third-party candidates play in the polls?
Third-party candidates generally receive a small percentage of votes in polls but can potentially influence the outcome by drawing support away from the major parties.
5. How do polls handle voter suppression and disenfranchisement issues?
Polls do not directly measure voter suppression or disenfranchisement, as these issues affect the overall electorate rather than individual voter preferences. However, they can reflect broader societal trends and concerns.
6. Can polls accurately predict voter turnout?
Voter turnout is notoriously difficult to predict accurately. Polls can estimate turnout based on historical data and demographic trends but often face challenges in forecasting actual turnout rates.
7. What impact do external factors like economic conditions have on election polls?
Economic conditions can significantly influence voter sentiment and polling results. Economic downturns or improvements can shift support towards or away from incumbent parties.
8. How do polls account for demographic changes in voter populations?
Polls use demographic data to ensure representation of various groups within the electorate. However, these models may not always capture emerging trends or shifts in voter behavior.
9. Can polls be influenced by media coverage and campaign advertising?
Yes, media coverage and campaign advertising can influence polling results by shaping public opinion and voter perceptions. Negative or positive coverage can sway undecided voters or reinforce existing biases.
10. What is the significance of early voting trends in poll analysis?
Early voting trends can provide early indicators of voter behavior but should be interpreted cautiously. These trends might not reflect the final outcome, as late-deciding voters could alter the balance.
