Why Polling Science is Flawed and What It Means for Democrats
I’ve said it many times, and I’ll say it again: polling science is BAD science. Many people ask me about the latest polls, and I remind them of two things:
- All polls before Labor Day in an election year are just for fun.
- Ignore the numbers; they don’t mean much.
The Problem with Mainstream Media (MSM)
The problem with most mainstream media (MSM) is that they rely on these “fantasy politics” numbers to create their stories. Depending on who pays them, they frame these stories in a way that suits them, regardless of the facts. This includes big names like the New York Times, WSJ, and WaPo. These organizations are often unprepared for what will happen as the election nears.
Post-Labor Day Polls: A Slightly Better Indicator
Now that we are past Labor Day, more Americans start paying attention to politics. Polls begin to have a little more meaning, but only as indicators of trends. Current trends show support moving toward Kamala Harris, which is great news. However, polls still don’t accurately predict election outcomes. Modern polling is flawed and often used to justify biased stories.
An Analogy for Understanding Polls
Imagine trying to view a large mural made of 150 million drops of paint, but you only look at a few hundred drops. You make assumptions about the larger picture based on these few drops. It’s absurd! Over time, as more drops are included, you might get a clearer picture, but no poll can truly accomplish this. Pollsters are using bad science, and it’s not really “science” at all.
A Major Political Reformation
The current polls and MSM are missing one of the biggest political changes in our nation’s history. This change is just beginning with this coming election. Over the next six years, the makeup of the electorate and the shift in political views will completely change the political landscape. Things are not looking good for the Republican Party.
Six Predictions for the Upcoming Election
Based on my observations, here are six predictions for the upcoming election:
1. Kamala Harris Will Be the First Woman President
There are still hurdles to overcome, like debates and voter suppression in key states, but all signs point to Harris winning over 300 electoral votes if we can get people to vote. High voter turnout will be key.
2. A Democratic Landslide
The election will be a landslide for Democrats up and down the ballot. New registrations among young voters, Black voters (especially women), Latina/o voters, and first-time voters are setting records. Reproductive freedom and new evidence of Trump’s crimes will drive massive turnout. The Republican Party has lost millions of voters since 2020, and many moderate Republicans are switching sides in protest of Trump.
3. MSM Will Be Shocked
The MSM will act surprised at the outcome and question the election’s validity. They will use their ignorance to keep people watching and clicking. However, most Americans will tune out and focus on real issues like climate change and healthcare.
4. Trump’s Legal Troubles
After the election, Trump’s lawyers will argue that he is mentally incompetent to stand trial. They will claim his failing health should keep him out of jail. Without MSM support, the truth will come out.
5. Potential Violence
Some MAGA supporters will never accept the new reality and may resort to violence. While most will turn away from politics, some will not. We must watch out for our neighbors and protect our loved ones.
6. Trump Won’t Go to Jail
Trump will likely never spend a day in jail. The billionaire class will protect him to maintain their illusion of immunity. His lawyers will continue to file appeals until he dies. However, he will be rejected from the national political stage.
What You Can Do
As the election draws nearer, keep making calls, volunteer, and donate to Democratic candidates. Make sure your voter registration is current and plan to vote with a friend or family member. Make a day of it, have lunch together, and celebrate your efforts to protect American democracy.
