Donald Trump’s trial for conspiracy and obstruction charges related to the 2020 election is set to commence in Washington, D.C., on March 4, a Monday. The following day marks Super Tuesday, with 16 states and territories holding Republican presidential primaries, including California (169 delegates) and Texas (161 delegates). On March 12, another substantial number of delegates will be chosen.
Given the probable delays due to Trump’s appeals regarding immunity and his strong lead among Republicans, he could potentially secure the Republican nomination even before the trial begins.
The process for the election fraud case has begun, with mailers being sent to potential jurors for pre-screening on Feb. 9. Despite some dates being put on hold during Trump’s pursuit of “absolute immunity” through appeals courts and potentially the Supreme Court, the pre-screening process is expected to proceed as scheduled.
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan is likely to keep proceedings moving swiftly, and even if federal trials are delayed, the New York state case involving Trump’s alleged illegal accounting for hush money is set to begin in March, unaffected by Supreme Court rulings.
By the end of March, Donald Trump may find himself either in a federal courtroom facing felony charges or celebrating securing the 1,215 delegates needed for the Republican nomination, or possibly both simultaneously.
The Washington Post has suggested that Trump’s multiple criminal indictments rallied Republican voters around him. However, data from Civiqs over the past year indicates that Trump’s favorability among Republicans remained steadfast, with no significant drop following his indictment.
On the campaign trail, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has seen a decline in approval ratings, as has former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, down 14 percentage points since announcing her candidacy. Meanwhile, Mike Pence’s ratings were consistently low throughout his campaign.
While some claim that Trump’s indictments played a role in uniting Republicans, the charges against him appear to be coordinated efforts to interfere with his campaign. The New York District Attorney moved first due to ongoing investigations, while actions within the Department of Justice led to delays in preparing cases.
Trump’s popularity with Republicans dipped from 81% to 73% following the 2022 midterms but has since partially recovered. This support, combined with a field of weak Republican candidates, has contributed to his resurgence. The Georgia case has no trial date yet, the Florida case is unlikely to go to court before the general election, and the New York case’s March date may be subject to change. The Washington, D.C., case scheduled for March 4 is also likely to experience delays as Trump files appeals, arguing against a trial before the election.
