I Don’t Believe What I’m Asked to Believe

Is the Presidential Race Really Deadlocked?

Here’s what I am supposed to believe in order to accept that the presidential race is really deadlocked.

Favorability Ratings

I have to believe that while Vice President Harris and Governor Walz are both viewed positively, and while Senator Vance and convicted felon Trump are not, the national polling outlook remains too close to call.

Trump’s Legacy

I have to believe that despite being declared the worst president ever by a panel of presidential historians, Trump is remembered as uniquely successful.

Republican Opposition to Trump

I have to believe that even with over 100 prominent Republicans, including many former members of his own cabinet, labeling Trump as unfit to serve and a danger to democracy itself, roughly half of the electorate doesn’t care.

Harris Campaign’s Advantages

I have to believe that the Harris campaign’s overwhelming advantages in fundraising and field organization are completely immaterial. That everything is locked in and all of the ad buys, social media activity, and campaign rallies are pointless. That nothing can move the needle.

Voter Registration Spikes

I have to believe that despite the spikes in voter registration following Harris’ elevation to the top of the ticket, after the convention, after the debate, and even after Taylor Swift’s endorsement, the race remains stubbornly stable.

Gender Gap Post Dobbs

I have to believe that, in the post-Dobbs environment, Harris has a narrower gender gap than Clinton or Biden.

Generation Z and Climate Change

I have to believe that in the era of catastrophic fallout from global climate change, Harris is underperforming with Generation Z.

MAGA Candidates in Swing States

I have to believe that in swing states like Arizona and North Carolina, MAGA candidates for Senator and Governor are facing monumental defeats while the MAGA standard bearer is trending toward victory.

Trump’s Invincibility

I have to believe that despite all of the indictments, convictions, and financial penalties, Trump has an aura of invincibility. That despite all of his failures he’s seen as a success. That despite his obvious deterioration he’s still seen as strong.