How and Why the Polls Are Wrong in a Single Word

Democrats: A New Hope as Elections Approach

A headline at CNN this morning painted a worrisome picture: Democrats grow anxious as Election Day nears. Like much of the mainstream media, the writer warned of a deadlocked race. But is it really?

Surprising Wins for Democrats

Before the 2022 midterms, many thought Democrats would face big losses. Instead, they held their ground with only minor setbacks. In Wisconsin, a crucial Supreme Court race was expected to be very close. Yet, the Democrat won by 11 percent!

In Alabama, a special election for a State Senate seat saw a Democrat win by 25 percent, even though they had lost by 7 percent the year before. Another special election in New York for George Santos’ seat was predicted to be a toss-up. The Democrat won by 8 points.

New Jersey’s last special election showed a strong Democratic hold, with the candidate winning 80 percent of the vote, up from 75 percent previously. In Fairbanks, a city that favored Trump by 14 points, a Democrat won the mayoral race by 15 percent. Are we seeing a pattern here?

The Power of Pro-Choice Initiatives

Across both Blue and Red States, pro-choice advocates have been surpassing poll predictions significantly. This trend shows a strong support for abortion rights initiatives everywhere.

Pollsters’ Struggles and Media Narratives

Many remember the shock of 2016. Pollsters have faced challenges since then, having made errors in both 2016 and 2020. They’ve tried to fix their methods, but it seems they might have over-corrected. What are they missing?

Major media outlets call this the closest race in history. It benefits them to do so because a tight race grabs attention. However, some poll aggregators like 538 and Nate Silver may not be as reliable as they seem. They include data from unknown sources like So Cal Strategies and Red Eagle, which lean heavily towards Trump.

Even well-known pollsters like Trafalgar, Inside Advantage, and Rasmussen show a bias towards Trump. Rasmussen, now under RMG Research, still focuses on negative stories about Joe Biden. Trafalgar even claimed Trump was leading in Pennsylvania, with unlikely support from African-American voters.

Why Democrats Are Outperforming Polls

Despite questionable polling, Democrats and pro-choice supporters have consistently outperformed expectations by 5% or more. This trend continues today. If it encourages voters to participate as if their lives depend on it, that’s a positive outcome.

So why is this happening? The answer is simple: polls are missing something crucial. They aren’t reaching enough women, especially young women, who are registering to vote in large numbers. These women don’t fit the old polling models and are often overlooked.

The Overlooked Gap

It’s surprising that few are discussing the consistent gap between polls and actual results over the past two years. My prediction? Harris is leading by about 3 percent in the aggregate. The final results? 52-44.