Kamala Harris and the Democrats: A Historic Momentum
A Record-Breaking Convention
Kamala Harris and the Democrats just completed the most successful political convention in American history. Harris now has the momentum and holds a narrow lead over convicted felon Don Old Trump in the polls. The Vice President has raised a staggering $540 million since she announced her candidacy — which is four times the amount raised by Trump.
History is on Our Side
We have more than just a polling lead and the momentum; we have history on our side. The modern political history of this country tells us that Harris will win. Let me explain why.
The Two-Term Rule
The first historical pattern is what I call the two-term rule. Whenever a party wins a first term in the White House, voters usually reward that party with a second term unless things in the country are really bad.
Since 1900, every party seeking a second term in the White House has won, except for 1980 and 2020. In those years, the state of the country was very poor. In 1980, Carter was badly hurt by double-digit inflation, a recession, and the Iranian hostage crisis. Four years ago, Trump mishandled a once-in-a-century pandemic, resulting in 200,000 American deaths due to his incompetence.
Examples of Second-Term Wins
Good examples of a party winning a second term in recent history include Roosevelt in 1936, Eisenhower in 1956, Johnson in 1964, Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984, Clinton in 1996, Bush in 2004, and Obama in 2012. In most of those years, the country was in a time of peace and prosperity. Those are the conditions that exist in 2024.
Some might point to Hoover losing in 1932 and Bush 41 losing in 1992. In both cases, the party in power was seeking a fourth straight term in the White House. Winning a third consecutive term is rare, and winning a fourth straight term is even rarer.
Likability Matters
The other historical pattern is that the more likable candidate usually wins. The person voters want to have a beer with usually has the advantage.
This trend dates back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s electoral victories between 1932–44. In subsequent cycles, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Johnson were all more likable than their opponents.
Historical Examples of Likability
Nixon is most remembered as an odious and devious person, but he ran successfully as the “New Nixon” in 1968 and 1972. He was actually well-behaved in public during his winning presidential campaigns, and the Democratic Party was heavily divided over Vietnam.
Carter had a winning smile in 1976 and won a narrow victory over the genial Gerald Ford. Reagan came across as your favorite grandfather when he won his landslide victories in 1980 and 1984. Bush 41 crushed Dukakis in 1988 by falsely portraying him as some kind of effete Harvard liberal.
Clinton was the Man from Hope in 1992 and defeated an overly negative Bush 41. He followed up that win with a landslide victory over an old and grumpy Bob Dole in 1996. Bush 43 came across as an amiable dunce, and the press regularly said that voters would rather have a beer with him than his opponents.
Obama was one of the most charismatic candidates in American history and overwhelmed another old and grumpy Republican, John McCain, in 2008. Four years later, Obama held off a challenge from Romney, who came across as a sneering plutocrat.
The Hillary Exception
Readers may contend that Hillary Clinton was more likable than Trump. This is the hardest election to fit into my theory. Before 2016, Hillary had been demonized by the GOP and the mainstream media for twenty-four years. Many voters had been (unfairly) convinced that Hillary was a mean and corrupt harpy. Another way to look at it is that Hillary did win the popular vote by a 48% to 46% margin but had a fluky loss in the electoral college.
Biden and Harris: Likable Leaders
Joe Biden is more likable than Trump — it wasn’t even a contest in 2020. The current president is best known for his empathy and is great in small groups and one-on-one encounters with voters. Perhaps all voters outside of the MAGA bubble would want to have a non-alcoholic beer with Biden. He is a genuinely nice guy.
Kamala Harris is clearly more likable than Trump. The convicted felon and former TV reality star is a mean and nasty person. He has rejected advice from numerous Republicans to lay off the personal attacks and insults and stick to the issues. In addition, Trump’s mental health is clearly in decline. He will only get worse between now and November 5. This will only enhance Harris’ already good chances to win.
Unity and Confidence
“Fellow Dems, one way we have to make Trump look small, not big, is to remind folks we are winning the election and he is losing.” – Simon Rosenberg.
There is an anti-MAGA majority outside of the red states. Trump has never once gotten more votes than his political opponent. Ever. And under his stewardship, the Republican Party has had historic electoral defeats in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023. The Democratic winning streak has continued into 2024.
Stay Confident and Keep Working
Be confident going forward. Take nothing for granted. Keep working hard.
It’s America or convicted felon Trump. Choose wisely.
FAQ’s
What made Kamala Harris and the Democrats’ political convention the most successful in American history?
The convention was considered the most successful due to its high level of organization, impactful speeches, and the significant momentum it generated for Kamala Harris, who now leads in the polls against Donald Trump.
How much money has Kamala Harris raised for her campaign?
Kamala Harris has raised a staggering $540 million since announcing her candidacy, which is four times the amount raised by Donald Trump.
What is the “two term rule” in modern political history?
The “two term rule” suggests that whenever a party wins a first term in the White House, voters usually reward that party with a second term unless the country is facing severe issues. This pattern has been consistent since 1900, with few exceptions.
Which years did the incumbent party fail to win a second term since 1900?
The incumbent party failed to win a second term in 1980 and 2020. In 1980, Jimmy Carter was hurt by double-digit inflation, a recession, and the Iranian hostage crisis. In 2020, Donald Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic led to his defeat.
Can you provide examples of parties winning a second term in recent history?
Examples include Roosevelt in 1936, Eisenhower in 1956, Johnson in 1964, Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984, Clinton in 1996, Bush in 2004, and Obama in 2012. These victories often occurred during times of peace and prosperity.
Why did Hoover lose in 1932 and Bush 41 lose in 1992?
In both cases, the party in power was seeking a fourth straight term in the White House. Winning a third consecutive term is rare, and winning a fourth straight term is even more rare.
What role does likability play in presidential elections?
The more likable candidate usually has an advantage. This trend dates back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s electoral victories between 1932–44. Subsequent cycles saw more likable candidates like Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Johnson winning their elections.
How did Nixon manage to win despite being seen as odious and devious?
Nixon ran successfully as the “New Nixon” in 1968 and 1972, behaving well in public during his campaigns. Additionally, the Democratic Party was heavily divided over Vietnam during those election cycles.
What were some key factors in Reagan’s landslide victories in 1980 and 1984?
Reagan came across as a likable figure, akin to a favorite grandfather. His charisma and positive demeanor helped him secure landslide victories.
How did Bill Clinton’s image contribute to his victories in 1992 and 1996?
Clinton was known as the Man from Hope and defeated an overly negative Bush 41 in 1992. He followed up with a landslide victory over an old and grumpy Bob Dole in 1996.
Why did George W. Bush win in 2000 and 2004?
George W. Bush came across as an amiable dunce, and the press regularly noted that voters would rather have a beer with him than his opponents. This likability factor played a significant role in his victories.
What made Barack Obama one of the most charismatic candidates in American history?
Obama’s charisma, eloquence, and ability to connect with voters on a personal level made him one of the most charismatic candidates. He overwhelmed John McCain in 2008 and held off Mitt Romney in 2012.
Why is the 2016 election difficult to fit into the likability theory?
Hillary Clinton had been demonized by the GOP and mainstream media for twenty-four years, leading many voters to view her negatively. Although she won the popular vote, she lost in the electoral college.
How does Joe Biden’s likability compare to Donald Trump’s?
Joe Biden is known for his empathy and ability to connect with voters in small groups and one-on-one encounters. He is generally seen as a genuinely nice guy, making him more likable than Donald Trump.
Is Kamala Harris more likable than Donald Trump?
Yes, Kamala Harris is clearly more likable than Donald Trump. Trump is often seen as mean and nasty, while Harris comes across as more personable and approachable.
What impact does Trump’s mental health have on the election?
Trump’s declining mental health is expected to worsen, which could further harm his chances and enhance Kamala Harris’ already good prospects for winning the election.
What is the significance of the anti-MAGA majority outside of red states?
The anti-MAGA majority outside of red states has consistently voted against Trump and his allies, contributing to historic electoral defeats for the Republican Party in recent years.
What advice does Simon Rosenberg give to fellow Democrats?
Simon Rosenberg advises fellow Democrats to remind people that they are winning the election and Trump is losing, thereby making Trump look small rather than big.
What should Democrats do going forward?
Democrats should remain confident, take nothing for granted, and continue working hard to ensure victory in the upcoming election. It’s a choice between America or convicted felon Trump.
