Here Are Some New Polls so You Can All Stop Panicking, Okay?

Here Are Some New Polls so You Can All Stop Panicking, Okay?

Stay Energized: The Time to Act is Now!

While it may feel tempting to take a break, we must keep our momentum going! The current wave of worry among Democrats is understandable but can be exhausting and counterproductive. Let’s look at some recent polls that show positive signs for our party.

National Polling Insights

Here are some key national polls that show support for Kamala Harris:

  • TIPP (Oct. 11-13): 1,212 likely voters show Harris at 49% and her opponent at 46%, giving her a +3 lead.
  • Ipsos (Oct. 4-8): 1,714 likely voters reveal Harris at 51% and her opponent at 48%, also a +3 lead.
  • YouGov (Oct. 8-11): 2,712 likely voters indicate Harris at 51% and her opponent at 48%, maintaining a +3 lead.

Pennsylvania Polling Highlights

Let’s take a closer look at Pennsylvania, a crucial state for our success:

  • TIPP (Oct. 7-9): 1,079 registered voters show Harris at 49% and her opponent at 45%, giving her a +4 lead.
  • Siena (Oct. 7-10): 857 likely voters also show Harris at 49% and her opponent at 45%, again a +4 lead.

Support from Black Voters

A recent YouGov poll shows that Black voters support Harris by a remarkable 87%-12%. This aligns perfectly with the voting patterns we saw in 2020, proving that claims about losing support from Black voters are simply not true.

Trustworthy Polling Data

TIPP Insights has a strong track record. Since 2004, they have only missed the mark by an average of 1.1%. This includes underestimating Obama’s votes in 2012 by 2.9 points and Hillary’s in 2016 by just 1.1 points. In 2020, they were off by only 0.5% for Biden. While it would be great to see Harris leading by more, we all knew this race would be close and depend heavily on voter turnout.

The Importance of Pennsylvania

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, it will be a significant blow to Trump’s chances. He cannot realistically win without it. Both TIPP and Siena showing Harris with a 4-point advantage should give us all a bit of comfort tonight.

Why We Should Feel Confident

While I don’t rely solely on polling, I believe we will win because of several key factors:

  • Strong fundraising from small donors
  • A massive Get Out The Vote (GOTV) operation
  • High enthusiasm levels among voters
  • Unprecedented new voter registrations in Democratic-leaning groups
  • A popular and capable candidate in Kamala Harris

Facing Our Fears Together

I understand that for many Democrats, polls can feel as scary as a clown doll in a thunderstorm. But when we shine a light on the situation, we see that things are looking good for us, including the polls! Harris is gaining strength, and you can help by donating, writing postcards, or knocking on doors.

Rest Easy, But Stay Active!

So, sleep well knowing that we have a solid foundation to build on. But remember, now is not the time to relax—let’s keep pushing forward together!

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