The Debate Bump Looks Real
Since last Tuesday, there have been a number of polls showing good movement for Harris:
- Morning Consult, Sept. 13-15, LV, 51-45%, Harris +6 (up 3 from Sept 4-6 poll)
- PS. This has a huge sample size of 11,022 with MoE +/-1.
- Big Village, Sept. 11-15, LV, 51-43% Harris +8 (up 2 from Sept. 6-8 poll)
- YouGov, Sept. 11-13, RV, 50-45%, Harris +5 (up 3 from Sept. 1-3 poll)
It seems likely that Harris got a 2-3 point bump, which is historically typical. Keep in mind that these numbers are not predictive at this point—they indicate momentum, and right now that’s clearly on the Democratic side.
Fundraising
While Harris’s fundraising haul has been historically large, the huge number of small and first-time donors is even more impressive.
GOTV Operations
We know that an excellent ground game can add anywhere between 2-4 points to the outcome. Harris continues to open more field offices, with over 300 currently in swing states. Meanwhile, Trump has a relatively small field operation, foolishly handing over his GOTV to untested right-wing PACs. Harris is also recruiting a huge group of volunteers, and I imagine Taylor Swift’s endorsement has increased this number substantially.
New Voter Registrations
This is important because new registrants tend to be more likely to vote. Since Harris went to the top of the ticket, the percentage increase of new registrants in Dem-friendly demographic groups has blown the roof off compared to the same time in 2020.
Enthusiasm
This isn’t as easy to measure, but there are some metrics we can look at. Harris and Walz can draw large, enthusiastic crowds, unlike the relatively small and quiet Trump rallies. Gallup’s survey shows that Harris’s voter enthusiasm is at historic highs, with a significant gap over Trump (78%-64%). Bottom line: Harris voters are pumped! There is zero complacency.
Control of the Narrative
While Trump can still pull headlines with his antics, the Harris campaign has done a stellar job of controlling the narrative. None of the GOP attacks on her are sticking, and the Democratic message discipline has been unusually excellent.
Recent Polling/Outcome Results
Nervous Democrats often compare this election to 2016, but the more apt comparisons are with the 2022 midterms and subsequent elections. Pollsters adjusted their techniques after 2020, assuming they undercounted Trump support. However, this adjustment has consistently undercounted Democratic support. Trump underperformed in his own primary races this year in 8 out of 10 states, sometimes by double digits.
All evidence from the last two years indicates that pollsters adjusted too far to the right and are now very likely undercounting Democratic support. They are also not capturing new voter registrants, young voters, or Dobbs voters. Even if pollsters are missing “shy” Trump voters, this year any such effect will be canceled out by the missing youth/Dobbs voters on the left.
The Moral of the Story
Don’t trust the polls. They are weakly predictive at best, especially in light of the fundamentals outlined above. Everything is going our way. So let’s dig in and bury the MAGA movement forever with a blowout Harris-Walz victory!
