Trumpty Dumpty is a very nervous orange egg this morning and for many past mornings, He’s tutting and strutting about how he’s going to derail the election — and make no mistake, he will, if he can see any opening whatsoever that will allow him to manufacture a crisis and mis-characterize the normal functions of ballot counting as something sinister and part of a plot against him. Those moves are already in place. And I think one can say with certainty that Trump’s lame duck period until the inauguration will be a nightmare.
But let’s stay in the moment here. This is where we stand on Democracy Eve, where it looks like Joe Biden will get 270 presents under the tree, and then some, and Trumpty will be a smashed yoke on the sidewalk of history, surrounded by lumps of coal that the electorate has thrown at him and wailing, “Not fair!!”
FL: Biden +6
GA: Biden +2
MI: Biden +7
MN: Biden +9
NC: Biden +1
PA: Biden +9
WI: Biden+13 pic.twitter.com/brgfNXszDB
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 2, 2020
Trump’s path to victory is like a jenga tower, if you take away one state he needs, the entire thing collapses. Trump must win Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. His chances of winning Arizona are not great. Biden has maintained a steady lead, albeit a modest one, in the state for some time. Additionally, Cindy McCain penned an op/ed in USA Today Monday extolling the virtues of Joe Biden and explaining why it’s acceptable for Republicans to vote for a Democrat in this election. Plus, Martha McSally is considered toast by virtually one and all. You don’t need to be able to read chicken entrails to see that these are not good signs. If Trump does take Arizona, it will be narrowly.
Biden is plus six in Florida by the Morning Consult poll, and plus two by AYTM and Fredrick Polls. This is a harbinger of doom for Trump, because He.Must.Win.Florida. No.Exceptions. Without Florida, game over.
As to North Carolina, the latest poll published at 1:26 ET has Trump ahead by 0.6%. Bottom line, if Trump takes Florida, Arizona, North Carolina AND Pennsylvania, he can win. Without all of it, he gets none of it. His situation is that tenuous.
So where does Pennsylvania stand? Monmouth posted a poll at 12:20 p.m. ET showing Biden ahead five points. This could mark Trump’s death knell as well. If he loses Pennsylvania, then unless he scrambles elsewhere, say, taking Minnesota out of the Democratic column, he loses. Pennsylvania is key, which is why Trump has been to Pennsylvania ten times since September. He only won the state by 45,000 votes last time, .09%, and so he needs to pull the same rabbit out of the hat again.
A senior adviser to Joe Biden said, about Biden’s path to 270, “My gut says the true path of least resistance is Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, NE-2. Don’t need Pennsylvania, Ohio or Florida.”
He added, “I am least bullish on Florida and most bullish on Arizona.”
Now this is the playing it safe analysis. It’s always a good idea to err on the side of caution. In point of fact, the electorate may come down on Trump like an anvil. Here’s what that may look like.
Let’s hope for this eventuality. If it goes down like this, it may be over by ten o’clock and wouldn’t that be delightful? Then the revels will begin. Put the champagne on ice. And don’t forget, revenge is a dish best served cold, and with schadenfreude for an appetizer.
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