So you want to impeach President Trump? Well, get in line buddy. Just do yourself a favor, don’t think in terms of hyper speed. Don’t think of it in terms of a calendar, think more in terms of a geologic clock. Such is the speed of politics.
Personally, I think that one of two things will happen. Either The Tiny Thumbs Diktator will try to go all Dr. Strangelove on North Korea, in which case Mike Pence will step in and pull the plug on Trump’s Presidential life support machine, or he will be impeached. Here’s the bad news, not until 20198.
There are a couple of reasons I say this. First, Trump has been a nightmare, and Republicans have nothing to show the folks back home in terms of accomplishments. But the election is next year, and they are loathe to run afoul of Trump and risk both a challenge from the right in a primary, as well as losing his foaming-at-the-mouth base supporters. Also, time is not on their side. By February, no later than March, congress is gonna pretty much shut down while everybody goes into save-my-lazy-ass reelection mode. Anyone here who thinks that any GOP member of congress wants a pending impeachment process of a President of their own party hanging over their heads had better think again.
So, 2019 it is. And I see three different ways that this can unfold. They are a “What?!? How did this shit happen?!?” scenario, a “Well, it wasn’t pretty but a win is a win” scenario, and a pop-the-orks “Hell YEAH! Now daz wat I’M talkin’ about!” scenario. I’ll explain them below, in the same order.
This scenario is our worst nightmare. In it, all of the scandals bullshit, our protests and organizing, none of it means squat. The GOP retains control of the Senate, and the House as well, with possible acceptable losses. If this happens, I can guarangoddamntee you that the Republicans will wipe their foreheads with their sleeves, look at each other with glassy eyes, and shaky grins, and say “Well, that wasn’t so bad, was it?” They will believe that they can survive Trump as a party, and will feel no compunction to act against him. I find this unlikely, I believe that the results in Virginia show the depth of national disgust with all things Trump. A positive showing for Doug Jones in Alabama would only solidify that.
I find this scenario much more likely than the first one. In it, we either win the Senate back, or win either NV or Az, or possibly both, shaving McConnell’s majority. We lose the House, but cause massive damage to the GPO majority, basically making Ryan’s House deadlocked. This will present the GOP with the Specter of not only losing the White House in 2020, but losing both lower chambers as well. The GOP will be as pissed as hell at Trump for visiting this misfortune upon them, and will want him gone to try to salvage anything in 2020. This is especially true in the Senate, where in 2020 there are 20+ GOP Senators running for reelection as opposed to the 8 running in 2018.
This one is the mother lode of scenarios. In it, we win back both the House and the Senate. Speaker Pelosi gets committee chairmanships and majority members to deal out, along with subpoena power. They will vote articles of impeachment. Senate Majority Leader Schumer will order the impeachment trial, and I believe the Senate will convict, with the help of some of those 20+ GOP Senators who will have to run again in 2020. Trump will go to the ash heap of history, and we will have majorities in both houses to make President Pence as impotent as a fixed dog until 2020.
So, the future is bright my friends, all we need is patience, and to bust out asses off to get it done. Remember, good things come to those who wait.