Trump’s final ad buy shows just how broke his campaign really is

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@gregolear / Twitter Strange things are afoot at the 1541940266.jpg...
@gregolear / Twitter

On a call Monday, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien revealed the campaign’s total ad buy for the last two weeks of the presidential race would be a whopping a paltry $55 million … split between no fewer than 11 states.

Um, just wow. And that’s not only the Trump campaign, it represents coordinated spending with the Republican National Committee (RNC) too. Far from being a muscular way to close out the race, it feels more like a cry for help. By comparison, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said last week that she still anticipates raising another $234 million through the election.

The 11 states included on the target list for both entities are: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine-2, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

According to an Axios article last week, Stepien views Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and Maine’s 2nd district as the foundation of their path to 270—in other words, must gets. In fact, the article quoted Stepien calling that line up the “easy part,” but apparently not so easy that they’re forgoing dropping money in all four supposed gimmes.

As New York Times journalist Shane Goldmacher, who was on the call, noted, “On the one hand, Stepien says he is ‘certain’ that they are winning Ohio and Iowa. On the other hand, he announces the campaign will be up with ads in those two states in final two weeks.” Go figure.

One state the Trump campaign appears to have finally given up on altogether is Minnesota. Earlier on Monday, the Trump camp had announced cancelling ad buys in several Midwestern states even as they were preparing to reinvest in some of them through this coordinated ad buy with the RNC. But Minnesota, which has pretty much always been a pipe dream for Team Trump, was dropped altogether.

Even before this final Trump ad buy in the closing weeks, Biden’s ad spending had outpaced Trump’s by a 2-to-1 ratio for months, according to The New York Times. In a review of the two campaigns’ spending in 10 battleground states, the only state where Trump outspent Biden was Georgia—which doesn’t exactly jibe with that state’s inclusion in Stepien’s so-called “easy” list.

Biden’s spending strategy has clearly centered on the Midwest. “His dominance is most pronounced in three critical swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — where he spent about $53 million to Mr. Trump’s $17 million over the past month largely on ads assailing the president’s handling of the virus as well as the economy and taxes,” writes the Times.

And while Trump initially enjoyed a digital ad advantage in the early part of the campaign, Biden has steadily closed that gap in recent months, achieving near parity in the last 30 days at $50 million for each ad campaign on Google and Facebook, according to the Times.

What is perhaps most interesting in these final weeks is just how small Trump is playing even as Team Biden has played very big—and not just in terms of overall spending. As this Politico piece explains, the Biden campaign has seen so many paths to 270 open up that in some cases they realized it would be more cost effective to make national buys rather than spending astronomical amounts in smaller battleground markets. It’s a worth a read.

Under normal circumstances, most campaigns at this point would be making buys to leverage their position in 10 or even fewer states. But the Biden campaign realized that making some national buys through the networks would actually cost only slightly more, for instance, than purchasing air time in states with major Senate races like Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, where pricing had gone through the roof. The big upside of the national buys was that they had the advantage of not only reaching the desired markets in key battlegrounds but also establishing a Biden presence in states that were newly on the radar, like Texas.

“We are looking at a very wide map right now,” Becca Siegel, the Biden campaign’s chief analytics officer, said. “Normally at this stage of the campaign, we would be narrowing in. But at this stage of the campaign, we have a lot of pathways that have opened up.”

So as Trump closes out with a whimper, Biden is heading out with a roar, and his sizable cash advantage has made all that possible.

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8 Comments on "Trump’s final ad buy shows just how broke his campaign really is"

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SteveP
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SteveP

I hope any advertising businesses that are dealing with Trump direct get their money upfront. Otherwise, he’ll stiff them like he does every business he crosses paths with.

Thomas
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Thomas

What a Waste of 55 million

moosetracks
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moosetracks

LOL, get the money up front or you wont see it, the man is not even a millionaire.

Nevatrumper
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Nevatrumper

Trump will need hundreds of millions in legal fees before this is over. I wonder what ally or family member will step up to save him?🤔🤔🤔.

Lou
Guest
He ain’t broke. He told the world he is worth billions, open. You pocket and spend your billions, chicken shit. What an obese liar, he lies so mush he sounds like a kid stealing candy when he has chocolate on his face and saying what candy. He is a criminal mass MURDERER killing 170,000 horrible, sicking, very very corrupt. You have to vote this ass out, before his stupid tribe ( that’s what trump calls them in tv) believes he will save them from the virus, while over 82,000 of his red cap tribe has died. Now they are walking… Read more »
Chris Whitley
Member

If you are worth billions you don’t hold a 400 million dollar note for four years. I never understood why they let that one slide. And who is dumb enough to have a 400 million dollar note on trump. The thought that he’s going to skip is a for gone conclusion.

Marie Tobias
Member

Actually this all makes perfect sense… he’s known for a long time nobody was pulling his bacon from the fire…

He’s been not so quietly siphoning money out of his $1 Billion plus Campaign, the money he stole from his Ginormous $150 million Inauguration (wink, wink, knod), and all those other hundreds of millions he’s been taking in through emolument infractions and illegal foreign deals.

He should almost have enough to get quietly out of the US, default on his debts, and live like a regular millionaire in the UAE, the rest of his life.

J.M.
Guest
J.M.

The chickens 🐔🐔🐔🐔 are almost home. 😀