The Young Turks / YouTube Mueller Subpoenas Trump  s Bank...
The Young Turks / YouTube

I am not a D.C. insider, nor am I an attorney who has represented presidents facing serious investigations (though I am an attorney who has done criminal defense). I am not a Robert Costa or any of the other brilliant journalists who have done yeoman’s work in exposing this White House’s many mistakes, and deplorable actions. I’m damn sure not a prosecutor, especially one as good and principled as Robert Mueller. Yet, I do believe that I have an idea as to how this all ends. I certainly have nothing to gain by putting this out here, I may end up looking foolish. But, I still believe that some will benefit by hearing out my reasoning.

President Trump will not be impeached. Of this I am absolutely positive, with one significant caveat. If Mueller’s second report to Congress (more on the 2 reports later) – the one that is not expected within weeks to months, but after the November elections, the one involving what happened during the campaign, contains an explosive finding that demonstrates Trump received direct funds while running for president, or knew of Russian efforts to assist him, or knew that his fraudulent loans (money laundering) left him with no choice but to act as Russia’s aide, coupled with Mueller having direct proof that Trump instigated some U.S. policy solely because Russia favored it and instructed him to instigate it (same goes for Saudi or the Emirates), in THAT scenario along, then I believe Trump could be impeached.

I actually believe some of this happened, especially the blackmail concerning fraudulent land deals – if such a situation is proven so clearly that even Fox News struggles to explain it away, then it is possible that a Democratic House could impeach him, and enough Republican Senators, facing increasing voter anger, would find their inner practicality, and send Trump packing. It requires 66 votes, and thus we are speaking of a post-November congress, it is unlikely there would be more than 48-49 Democrats, so we are looking for almost 20 Republican votes. Exceedingly difficult absent just shocking evidence. The other reason that I believe this is unlikely – even though the circumstances almost surely occurred, it is so difficult to prove intent. Proving Trump’s intention to act on behalf of Russia will be nearly a block to such an impeachment.

However, that is not the end of the story. Mueller’s team is reportedly weeks to months away from issuing a report on possible crimes committed while president. These crimes involve primarily obstruction. No amount of obstruction will move Republicans in the House to impeach the president. The House Republicans already know that Trump fired Comey because he wanted the Russian investigation stopped. It does not move them in the slightest, even though the same moves ended Nixon’s presidency. It is possible that some of the latest evidence, evidence of money going to Cohen, and possibly then directly to Trump, would constitute crimes exceeding obstruction. It is possible that the evidence will be so overwhelming that Republicans will be left without a choice, but I do not see it, not this Republican House.

Mueller does not believe he has the authority to indict a president for crimes committed while in office. It is an open legal question, but ultimately, Mueller is conservative when it comes to constitutional questions – he will leave the consequences of this first report to Congress. Congress would likely reprimand the president, a formal “censure,” but not remove Trump from office.

That still does not end the story. Mueller is working on a second report, with a separate team, one concerning crimes committed prior to taking office. This is the portion of the Mueller investigation which terrifies Trump. Trump knows he has the money laundering history and tax evasion issues to worry about. That is why Trump has drawn a “red line” in looking at his financial history. Trump knows this is where the easily proven stuff lies.

Mueller does believe that he has authority to indict a sitting president for crimes committed prior to taking office. However, there is a question about whether he could prosecute those indictments while the president was in office, or whether he would need to wait until Trump is out of office, whether by being voted out, or impeached.  But, Mueller can and will prosecute these indictments. It would only be a matter of when.

The second report containing evidence of these crimes would not come out until after November, when it is likely that a Democratic House will suddenly be in charge of oversight, and will institute real investigations into White House abuses. Trump will face scandals and trouble on a level that makes today look like nothing. The indictments, coupled with what could be exposed in a House investigation will motivate Trump to “end this,” “somehow.”

Trump’s primary concern is first and always money. He does not care in the least if he goes down in history as the most corrupt and worst president in history. He cares about whether he enriched himself. If Trump is indicted and convicted of money laundering or any other felony, he will lose whatever “fortune” he has. I do not believe he actually has a large fortune to begin with, I believe he moves massive amounts of cash around, but there is little “there” in actual wealth when one counts the money owed on the other side of the ledger – – Trump made payments to Stormy in installments, he kept money made at fundraisers for veterans until caught – he’s not rich. After the indictments, Trump would face personal bankruptcy – after all, he makes most of his money by laundering it, loaning his name out as a label associated with luxury and value. After Trump is exposed, his name will no longer being value but shame. He could also easily face jail time after stepping down from office. Most importantly, he faces financial ruin.

Knowing this, Trump will look to make a deal, one that preserves the only thing he cares about, his money. Trump’s team will start exploring the possibility of him “stepping down” “for the good of the country” to not have to put the country through the “turmoil” that Putin wants, on the condition, that President Mike Pence (who will have his own issues awaiting) gives Trump a blanket pardon on all things Russia.

This would be an exceedingly tough call, and one that Mueller may not accept. However, Mueller would have to fear that Trump would leave office at the end of the first term, face criminal charges, only to have a possible Republican president (I believe Trump will choose not to run, or be primaried by Mitt Romney, among others, if he is still president going into the campaign season for the 2020 campaign.). If Trump lost the primary, it is possible that the Republican nominee would go on to win the general (possible, not likely) and pardon Trump anyway. The Republican would do so to preserve some of the dignity of the Republican party, but also stating that his motivation is to “not put the country though such a trying period, giving Putin what he wants” – and thus Trump would get off scott-free, having served his full term.

Thus, there would be tremendous pressure upon Mueller to make an agreement whereby Trump steps down from office in exchange for a blanket pardon by the next president. Such a deal would likely have to be ratified by Congress, because it would require agreements made by Mueller with a person (Pence) who is not even president yet. Democrats would not likely agree to such a deal unless it involved a commitment to open real investigations into the full role of the Russian government in penetrating our voter rolls, and other mechanisms as yet not investigated.

Trump will attempt to fire Mueller at some point, however, if enough evidence is brought out through the second investigation, and especially after the evidence brought out in the first investigation, Congress would likely block firing Mueller, even a Republican Congress. I expect Mueller to have evidence so strong that the country is shocked and between 66% and 75% will be demanding that Trump be held accountable.

The deal will be made, Trump will declare it was all the Deep State attempting to get him, he will maintain his innocence through the end, and will be willing to step down, only because he has “already made the country great again” and staying in office longer “will only hurt the country” – when in reality, Trump is doing it as the best possible way to ensure that he does not end up in prison, and retains some fraction of whatever wealth he claims to have.

Trump will then attempt to build some sort of media empire from the outside, though his “magic” effect on his strongest supporters will wane, there will still be that 20-30% that believes anything Trump says, and supports Trump through everything.

The entire matter will near rip the Republican party in two, those who favor Trump through it all, and those who favor America through it all. It will require congressional investigations that will rival the Church Committee in scope and length, about how this level of corruption was allowed to happen, and how deep did it infuse the Republican party. Many laws, and perhaps a constitutional amendment, will be made, prohibiting some of the worst abuses.

It is merely my best guess, and I look forward to hearing people’s thoughts in the responses.

 

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24 COMMENTS

  1. Don’t be offended, but … I think this rationalization of tRump’s and the GOP’s future, which is really the most notable aspect of politics today, is all wet and weak. Not only could I write my own predictions, which I think would be more reasonable and logical, but I could do it in less than 1/4 of the verbosity you used. The requirement to write a thousand word article has so screwed you that you lost all credibility by me.
    As usual, the thousand words, sometimes even higher, requirement destroys MANY articles that could have made a lot more sense without the requirements.

    • Don’t be offended, but just go fk yourself, okay? If you’re as fantastic as you say you are, you should have no trouble finding a website that will pay you to write for them – and then do it. In fact, you can write a reply right here, as your article, the one that would be so much better than this.

      No one required me to write a 1,000 word article, btw. I have no idea how many words it is and no idea where you’re getting the concept it had to be 1,000 words. In fact, my main worry was that my editor would object to the length. Instead he supported it 100%. I wrote it this afternoon, simply thinking, and wanting to be comprehensive, because the subject is serious. If it’s not for you, whatever, nothing is for anyone. Is it perfect, “New Yorker-Worthy” – nope, but that wasn’t my intention, either.
      To take time out of your day to write a personal note, starting with “no offense” and then describing how much better you are? Well, Big talk, is easy. Doing it, much harder. Let me know who forced you to read this, and I will both give that person a slap on the wrist and I’ll refund the money you paid as a waste of your time.
      Now, given all your free time, go tell someone else how cool you are.

      • Thank you for standing up to the ugly trolls who lack the intelligence and insight to appreciate your accurate analysis. As an author and frequent commenter on six social media sites I often encounter people who attempt to defame, disparage and undermine my professional opinions. Most often I ignore or block them…as is recommended. There are times when it is absolutely appropriate to just say Fuck You to ignorrant son of a bitches!

  2. This is a brilliant analysis and I fully concur with your conclusions. I have been a close observer and am convinced the most damning impact on the Trump presidency is the mountain of evidence he has committed impeachable crimes and we now suspect those crimes may have been committed while in office. Following the sources of money collected for the Trump inaugural and the recent Avenatti disclosures are a source of optimism that he may be forced to resign from office as Avenatti himself has predicted.

  3. Lately we hear Trump talk about making all his campaign promises fulfilled, and the ones that weren’t, was Congress’s fault. So he will then say he is ‘’ the best ever and corrected all of Obama’s mistakes” so now I’m going to trade my presidency for a full pardon from all of Mueller’s investgation” Again, I have done what you, America! Asked me to do!!! HE goes back to NYC A HERO!!

      • The story goes that he’s been laundering money in Eastern Europe for over 20 years, the LAST thing he wants is his taxes and/or finances looked at, and Jason is spot on, he most likely won’t be impeached for much of anything especially by his cowardly party, it’ll be if and when the truth about the money comes out, if at all, I read a story not long ago where during the recession of 2008, this man spent, in cash mind you, over 400 million on real estate, who does that? Bazillionaires DON’T do that, it’s just not financially responsible, is it? SOOOOOO where’d it come from? and what’d he do for it? or promise to do for it? No US bank wants to do business with him or his org, just douche bank and they’re connected to so called undesirables. All his properties said to be over priced crap, make no profit, fire traps, he bankrupts his company over and over to get out of debt, then goes right back in. No, most likely he will “step” down for the good of the country that HE made great again, and then be pardoned by Penis after being criminally charged with oh, tax evasion, money laundering, bank fraud, and on and on. But wait, what about his sidekicks, wannabes, and those uh oh god so damn qualified senior advisors you know, sons, daughter, son in law. Kushner, what a piece of work, ahhhhhh I’m not going there my head is already going to explode! Just kick them all in the ass on their way out the mf’ing door! Correct me on anything and everything I may be wrong on, this is just my opinion and surely means nothing!

  4. Great article. I’m Australian not American. I have been following US politics since DT was elected because I simply could not believe that someone like him could be president. I have extensively researched US politics, read judgments, the Steele dossier and many other literally thousands of pages of opinions, articles and any other information I could find in an attempt to get a broad picture. I believe you are spot on with your opinion. I said to my partner a couple of months ago, I do not believe he will be impeached. I do not believe he will go to prison. Tragically not. He has done untold damage to the USA and its image abroad. I feel your pain. I watch unfolding events with immense interest and wish the best outcome for the USA.

  5. THANK YOU FOR YOUR VERY THOUGHTFUL OBSERVATIONS. YOU HAVE A MUCH MORE THOROUGH GRASP OF EVENTS AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. MY QUESTION IS WHY DOES TREASON NOT COME INTO PLAY IN YOUR DISCOURSE?

  6. I think you wrote a well thought-out opinion.
    Very plausible.
    What’s missing from it though,..IMHO,…is the excruciatingly large number of Republicans in the Administration and the Congress, who will be going down also.
    And this includes Mike Pence.
    I believe that Bob Mueller opened up a series of closets during his investigation,..and massive numbers of skeletons have fallen out.
    THAT,….IS WHY THIS HAS BEEN A YEAR AND WILL SEE SEVERAL MORE WEEK/MONTHS.
    I pray Bob Mueller survives this and brings this filth to justice.
    This is not politics.
    I truly believe Trump and many many others conspired,..under direct orders from Putin,..to destroy the credibility of The United States and to harm as many Americans as possible,..before being forced out,..or,..Trump and the others would be exposed and their crimes presented.
    He may also have had his life threatened by the thugs he owes money too.

    In any event ..I enjoyed your opinion. I just added my 3 cents worth.
    Take care.

  7. Interesting analysis and prediction. I see perhaps and impeachment in a Dem House, but agree, no conviction in the Senate trial. I agree that Trump’s presidency ends when he resigns or refuses to run again – with a pardon somewhere in the mix.

  8. Trump is guilty of bribery, because with Cheeto, it’s always about the money. And, as we all know, bribery is clearly an impeachable offense. I believe Trump will resign right after the House impeaches him, thus avoiding a Senate impeachment trial.

    Putin was supposed to be Trump’s sugar daddy–after Trump presumably lifted sanctions on Crimean oil, it would have enriched Putin to the tune of $500 billion, thus making make Putin (easily) the richest man in the world.

    THAT didn’t happen because Congress specifically blocked the action. But the dirty unanswered rumor is…Trump would have received a kickback in the billions (as much as $45 billion) from Putin, thus making him the second richest man in the world. Perhaps Mr. Mueller already knows this. Back channels in the Seychelles?

    So, I believe Donny Sr. is now looking at the prospect of a bankrupt future. So deserving, since his entire life has been a giant Ponzi scheme.

  9. Watergate took 2 years to come to fruition Why you and others seem to think that at this point in time is the coming to the end is foolishness.

  10. I think, and believe that trump will retire saying he has accomplished all of his campaign promises he has made and congress is at fault for not supporting or passing his other campaign promises!! And if mueller does find something that he grant him a full pardon

    • It’s possible that D. T.’s ‘retirement’ will come in the form of an actual heart attack (or stroke) or a faked one…A fake stoke might be seen as ‘sympathy’ bringing…but a fake heart attack would make the required acting job much easier…Then he can make points by being ‘strong’ and resilient enough to almost immediately start ‘TRUMP TV’…

  11. After seeing what Trump and others are doing and getting away with, and reading all the discussion and arguments about possible ways to try to stop him, or negotiate polite ways to remove him from office, why would anyone in our country obey any laws? How are normal citizens supposed to accept the different treatment afforded us versus politicians? Or are you admitting that we have our own ‘ruling class’ who are just above the law? I get a kick out watching the talking heads engage in the discussion of how to protect the orange douche-bag, and not even mentioning the fact that the she needs protection only because he is guilty!!!! The Republicans once again have subverted the focus away from the important fact, and the Dems just follow the bait.

  12. I am sure I can speak for the majority of the sane people in this great country when I say that I sure as hell hope you are right. At this point I don’t really care how it is done but let’s get this dictator out of office before he destroys what little respect from the rest of the world this country has left. I am ashamed to be an American.

  13. This is a completely plausible possibility given what has been going on in the news even recently.
    The big question is … will the Russian tapes ever be released? Not that that would have any effect on any outcome, because people will just say that the tapes were ‘doctored’ – but that is really the sensationalist news that everyone is wondering about.
    Russia would not release them because it would show with a shadow of a doubt how Russian coercion works and how really good they are at it.
    Too bad. Would make the story of the century – proving the Steele dossier’s allegations.

  14. Gday, im an Aussie who’s followed American politics for decades as it has such an impact on our economy and to some degree our culture. What i still cant understand is, HOW this idiot DT is still in power ????. This fool is the most dangerous man on the planet!. Our Indonesian, Malaysion ans south east Asian neighbours are putting vast amounts of resourses into their armed forces. We are doing the same.

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