If the economy recedes in late 2019 and 2020, Trump might not make it to November 2020.
I know nothing about economics, and so I am not going to even fake an analysis of where the country stands right now, except to note that we have had near miraculous growth since President Obama’s initiatives took root in late 2009-2010. Economic growth has not been too fast, perhaps not fast enough initially. But it was sufficient to lead Obama to victory in 2012, and got Hillary Clinton more votes in 2016. Growth normally doesn’t continue as long as it has. We are long overdue for a retraction.
It is almost impossible to get rid of a president, no matter how bad, in a great or even “good” economy. Americans are fundamentally self-interested, and that is understandable. When Americans feel their own lives are “on the right track,” then what goes on internationally or even politically, cannot overcome economic certainty and comfort.
It is almost impossible to reelect a president in an economy that is retracting. Jimmy Carter won a Nobel Peace Prize, he was perhaps too mature for this nation in his fiscal and environmental policies, and yet he faced a devastating world-wide downturn and lost to “sunny days again,” Reagan. George H.W. Bush truly did run a war as well as one can be run, and then got the hell out. He oversaw the destruction of our Cold War nemesis, the Soviets, and Germany reunited. But the economy had slowed, substantially. Both Carter and H.W. Bush got beat, relatively soundly, in their attempt to get reelected.
Trump has done three significant things while in office. He appointed grossly conservative judges, from District Courts to the Supreme Court. He has demolished the administrative state, from environmental laws to business regulations. And he signed a tax cut massively slanted to the rich.
That is it, that is the list of his accomplishments. The past due notice on those tax cuts is coming, ask Ronald Reagan, and ask George W. Bush. Tax cuts slanted to the very wealthy work for a year, maybe two, and then the bill comes due. Because they never, ever, trickle down. Never. Usually the bill is a shrinking economy, but it can come as it did in 2008 with a virtual free-falling economy.
Do not think that the wealthy people who run this country don’t know this fundamental truth. They just make too much money during that year or two to resist the impulse. If things get too bad, as they did in 2007 and 2008, the wealthy will make money while getting themselves bailed out by the government, somehow.
The rich got theirs from Trump. They are now likely tired of Trump. Every self-respecting, half-literate person in this nation, not focused on abortion as the only issue, must be looking around at the international troubles that seem to be bubbling-up, from Central America to Kashmir to Hong Kong, to Russia and wondering when the big hammer will slam through the desk. Instability, is a killer. Big business has too much riding on predictable returns to allow for big surprises.
Right now, this type of person looks abroad and sees instability. They look at home, the market and see instability. They look at farmers and see pain. They look at the president and see someone tweeting about his reception in El Paso, his night in Ohio, his this, his that. Learned people see historic instability in a detached president, one who declared a needless trade war because “they’re easy to win,” one he is losing.
That shit gets old real fast, even for people who have supported Trump. The moment it looks like it might cost them money, staring with Wall Street and ending on Main Street, people will run for the hills.
I am not an economist, but I will promise you this.
If the economy shrinks between now and November 2020, if we are in a recession, there is not a single chance that Donald Trump can win. Carter and H.W. Bush were “real presidents” and they lost. Imagine what might happen here.
I hope it doesn’t take a recession, they cause too much pain. I would rather the economy be good and we rid the country of him anyway.
But if the economy really tanks, and now I am talking about a full blown recession, Trump will be impeached and then removed. He will not make it to November of 2020. Republican senators will be looking at a stuffed goose, honking on twitter. If by May of 2020, it looks like Trump’s economy has soured for good, those Republicans will be looking for any alternative to Trump.
No one here should hope and pray for a recession. We should be asking our representatives to continue to fight for things that might save us the pain. But no one here should hide their head in the ground, either. When things begin to change, as they have over the last two weeks: shootings, falling markets, international turmoil and hurting farmers, as you note these signs of economic turmoil, do not be afraid to point out such troubles to a Trumper around you.
Because Americans are fundamentally self-interested. “Owning the libs” was fun for them when everyone felt wealthier. But when money is slipping out of people’s pockets, people get tired of any game. Trump’s support is near unbreakable among Republicans, until it is not. It can happen fast, much faster than any of us appreciate. That tremor beneath your feet is real, we just don’t know yet if it is a passing truck, or an earthquake.