Combat continues as major breakthroughs have yet to occur in the areas of operation. The east has attacks, counter-attacks, and probing for encirclement. Weapons shipments continue. DisinformationΒ abounds as Russia spins the recent test of a new ICBM.
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Complete defeat of Russia’s armed forces is also a path toward ending this horrific war. But that is not the fastest path to peace. And Ukrainians, not outsiders, must decide what path to take. Both paths, however, require more & better weapons. So outside mission is clear 2/ END
Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna.Β Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and artillery support but are continuing to build the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Russian forces additionally made grinding progress against remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupolβs Azovstal Steel Works and announced plans for a May 9 Victory Day parade in the city β indicating Russian forces will declare victory in Mariupol by that date at the latest.
Russiaβs offensive in eastern Ukraine secured minor gains in the last 24 hours, taking parts of the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna.
Ukrainian forces reported the presence of small numbers of Syrian or Libyan mercenaries fighting in Popasna (eastern Ukraine), likely individual recruits fighting under the umbrella of the Wagner Group rather than larger units.
Russian forces made incremental advances in Mariupol and continued to set conditions to declare victory in the city by βat the latest β May 9.
Russian forces made minor advances around Izyum but have not secured any major breakthroughs.
To the south ofΒ #Izyum, theΒ #RussiansΒ have pushed into the village of Dibrovne (circled in white) and the area is now contested. π·πΊ assaults on several smaller villages in the area were repelled byΒ #UkrainianΒ forces.
To the south ofΒ #IzyumΒ #RussianΒ forces were stopped before reaching the city limits of Dovhenβke.Β #UkraianianΒ troops inflicted heavy losses on the attacking π·πΊ, who retreated after suffering too many casualties.
InΒ #Popansa,Β #RussiansΒ continued their assault on the city, but thus far have been unable to take the city center.Β #UkrainianΒ armed forces have been holding their lines and inflicting heavy losses.
To the east,Β #RussianΒ forces have captured Torsβke and are consolidating gains in the area prior to a likely assault onΒ #Zarichne. π·πΊ will have difficulty crossing the Zherebets River asΒ #UkrainainsΒ have taken adv of choke points like these to great effect in the past.
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Please, please let them make it to the safe place ππ»ππ»ππ»
These buses are waiting for people from Mariupol. Occupants agreed to provide humanitarian corridor for them.
β Oleksandra Zubal πΊπ¦ (@OleksandraZubal) April 20, 2022
Subordinate main effort β Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
Russian forces made marginal gains in assaults against the Azovstal Steel Plant on April 20.[3] Video footage depicted Russian Naval Infantry and other mechanized units fighting on the outskirts of the plant.[4] Russian aircraft continued to heavily target the Azovstal plant.[5] Pro-Russian Telegram channels claimed that DNR militia and potentially Russian Special Operations forces are “clearing” the Azovstal Plant of Ukrainian sources, but we cannot confirm if Russian forces have been able to take portions of the plant itself.[6] Notably, DNR-appointed occupation authorities of Mariupol announced on April 20 that Russian and DNR forces will hold a βVictory Dayβ parade in Mariupol on May 9.[7] Russian forces may undertake hasty and poorly-organized offensive actions to clear Azovstal before this date.Β www.understandingwar.org/…
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Russia-Ukraine war latest: Ukraine offers unconditional talks on Mariupol as west warns of Russian cyber-attacks β live https://t.co/UrYpR7Nrki
Evidence that #Russian Submarines are launching Kalibr Cruise Missiles at #Ukraine
Nod to image analysis via @COUPSURE. This is part of a pattern of activity involving multiple reloads of weapons during the war. pic.twitter.com/gUXon2ehhn
Meanwhile on Russian state TV: host Vladimir Solovyov threatens Europe and all NATO countries, asking whether they will have enough weapons and people to defend themselves once Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine comes to an end. Solovyov adds: “There will be no mercy.” pic.twitter.com/fCN3vfZy4N
The Russian authorities are trying to cover up the true number of Russian casualties.
According to reporting by @istories_media, doctors treating Russian military personnel on the border with Ukraine are being forced to sign non-disclosure agreements. https://t.co/pPNWWqMhTs
“Russian forces may be preparing to conscript Ukrainian citizens.”
Ukraine says Russian forces are planning “pseudo-referendums…to declare a forced mobilization and throw ‘mobilized’ Ukrainians to the hottest parts of the front.”
“25 teenage girls were gang-raped; 9 are now pregnant. Elderly women spoke about being raped by Russian soldiers. The bodies of children were found naked with their hands tied behind their backs, their genitals mutilated.” A harrowing read, by @Amie_FR. https://t.co/Src1yKlxG3
A video that broke me today: a russian missile hit this blind grandma’s house. She doesn’t know her house has been completely destroyed, and asks the soldier to close the door because it’s cold. pic.twitter.com/TLpQWxloRm
β Yana Morozova πΊπ¦ (@jane_in_vain) April 20, 2022
Ukrainian paratroopers destroyed an armored group of the elite motorized rifle brigade from Tomsk, the 21st separate Guards Red Banner Omsk-Novobuzhskaya Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Central Armed Forces of the Russian Federation https://t.co/LY5FR3iMT6pic.twitter.com/lJh40ibPcy
Russian state media broadcasts footage of βMariupolβs deputy mayorβ claiming that the city is excited about preparations for the Immortal Regiment on May 9 (a V-Day celebration co-opted by the Kremlin). This is Victoria Kalachiova, a Eurosceptic ex-city-councilwoman from OPZZh. pic.twitter.com/kHU1eUHl3O
Iβm reporting from on-the-ground in #Mykolaiv, which is now suffering more shelling than at any point in the war as #Russia ramps up attacks. Here a row of offices has been struck. Across the road are houses.
βAre there any military targets near here?β I ask.
βNo,β is the reply. pic.twitter.com/eblT2czTCd
There are huge water shortages inΒ #Mykolaiv. Here, a crowd of people lines up for water from a truck in the parking lot of a supermarket.
The locals here tell me they remain defiant.
This ladyβs T-shirt says: βWe dont give a fuck about tanks and APC, we are fromΒ #Mykolaiv, we are volunteers.β
Over the past few weeks Russia has struck civilian targets with huge ordnance. This crater is made by aΒ #RussiaΒ parachute bomb that struck a child rehabilitation centre.
The ruins of the Hotel Ingul inΒ #Mykolaiv. Another civilian building destroyed far from any military targets I can see.
The back vote of the shelled Hotel Ingul. In the foreground is a childrenβs playground.
Interviewing the mayor ofΒ #Mykolaiv. βI move constantly. donβt sleep in the same place two nights in a row. All I need is my gun and a place to wash.β
Mayor ofΒ #Mykolayiv: βIn the beginning Iβd get messages from Russians telling me to surrender or face the fate ofΒ #Mariupol. I told them: either go home and live or come here and die. Welcome to hell, motherfuckers.β
βThe Russians donβt understand that we live in a democracy. One man canβt decide for everyone. Even if I wanted to surrender, which I would not do. The people would never accept.β
βLook, we are fighting for our families and our land: we are overmotivated. The Russians are fighting only to die on the orders of Putin, the 21st century Hitler. They are undermotivated.β
βThis is a clash not betweenΒ #UkraineΒ &Β #RussiaΒ but between civilisations. One that wants to cure cancer & go into space & the other only interested restoring a Soviet past.β
βWatchΒ #RussiaΒ propaganda & understand that everything is backwards: they fight fascism by bringing fascism; they liberate by enslaving. When they sayΒ #UkraineΒ is planning a chemical weapons attack you know thatβs what they are planning.β
I leftΒ #MykolaivΒ to go to the villages on the frontlines of the war. Here destruction is everywhere. But life jas to go. Incredibly this store, in a bombed out building, is still open.
Here the war is almost constant. This village has been shelled twice today. Destruction is everywhere.
Amid the ruins of a bombed out building an old woman seems to have lost her mind. “Everything is CHAOS” she screams before breaking into song.
Here, by the front, one understands – beyond the rhetoric – the wanton & incontinent violenceΒ #RussiaΒ unleashing. Everywhere you look is destruction. The sound of shelling rumbles overhead.
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As the Battle for Donbas is unfolding, much has been said about the problems Russians might encounter with logistics, equipment deficiencies, lack of motivation and reinforcements, etc.
One aspect I want to emphasize is the challenge to Russian command.
π§΅:
β Used T-72 salesperson πΊπ¦ π€ππ€#NotOurTsar (@Mortis_Banned) April 20, 2022
First, here is a map to appreciate the sheer scale of the thing.
It involves at least 4 different axes of advance spread across 2 Russian military districts and now involves elements of at least 4 Russian armies, 2 “separatist” corps and a tank division.
The scale and complexity is unseen since, well, WW2.
Operation Uranus featured 11 Soviet armies (even though the headcount involved was an order of magnitude larger).
The Russian Army has not ever performed or trained for operations this large and complex.
The Georgia war was fought with just one (58th) army, the 2014-2015 Donbas operations were of similar scale if not smaller.
Russian exercises rarely involve more than one military district (2-4 armies in each). Vostok-2018, the largest exercise since the Cold War, pitched two military districts (Central and Eastern) against each other, but a multi-district coordination was never practiced.
Typically Russian exercises involve a strategic defense followed by a frontal counterattack, not large WW2-style encirclements that the Russians seem to be shooting for.
Add to this that many exercises are highly choreographed, as many things in the Russian military.
General Dvornikov, rumored to be Russia’s overall field commander, does not have more experience with this than anyone else.
He is seen as successful in establishing army-air-naval interoperability in Syria, but he only ever had a local corps under his command.
Smarter people than me have wondered how Dvornikov will structure his command. The options that he has is either overburdening his Southern Military District HQ or creating a new command structure from scratch (which would require expensive communications)
tl;dr: the Russian army has neither the experience nor readily available capability of conducting such a mega-offensive as we seen unfolding right now.
They may still pull it off, but this and other issues will translate into blunders and higher casualties.
/end
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Following the rigged presidential election and mass protests in 2020, #russia planned “special tasks” for its First Tank Army on the territory of Belarus.#specialoperation, “special tasks” and all kinds of “special measures” were a trademark of the Soviet #EvilEmpire. 2/3
β MFA of Ukraine πΊπ¦ (@MFA_Ukraine) April 20, 2022
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Putinβs assault on Ukraine is an unprovoked, premeditated and
barbaric attack on Ukrainian citizens and the democratic foundation of
our societies and the rules by which we coexist. #Democracyallies#StandWithUkrainepic.twitter.com/Vq3UkEhT1V
β European External Action Service – EEAS πͺπΊ (@eu_eeas) April 20, 2022
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For thirty years, Germans lectured Ukrainians about fascism. When fascism actually arrived, Germans funded it, and Ukrainians died fighting it.
Ukrainian tractors in action. They do not require long bureaucratic approvals, unlike other types of heavy weapons and military equipment from our Western partners, which we so desperately need to destroy the enemy.
Image by Ukrainian fArmy pic.twitter.com/SvbLjWV2ZT
Our Director of Research, @alesherasimenka, is this week’s guest @OxfordSparks podcast. He discusses how #misinformation about the war in #Ukraine is spreading and what various platforms are doing to prevent it.
β Programme on Democracy and Technology (@OxDemTech) April 20, 2022
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The performance and role of SpaceX’s Starlink in Ukraine is one of the most interesting aspects of this war. It also demonstrates the huge advantage the US has with innovative high-tech private companies. pic.twitter.com/wzS0tBLmoQ
It is now 8am and the Sun has Risen on the 57th Day of the Russian Invasion in the Capital city of Kyiv, it has been more than 1 Month yet Ukraine continues to Live and Fight on, Glory to Ukraine! πΊπ¦πΊπ¦
