Larry Sabato is a pollster and his blog Sabato’s Crystal Ball has bad news for Lindsey Graham and Susan Collins, to wit, Graham’s seat has been reclassified from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” and Collins’ seat is now “leans Democratic” from “toss up.” Collins is trying to save face desperately by not backing Trump’s plans to confirm a new supreme court justice before the election. Her actions are likely too little too late.
As for Graham, evidently he’s banking on the supreme court nominee battle to glide him home to victory. I guess we’ll see if he knows who his electorate is.
— The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg introduces an explosive new issue into the 2020 contests, although it may not fundamentally alter the race.
— Based on trends in public polling, and with a potential assist from Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, we’re moving that state’s critical Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
— The single electoral vote from the sprawling ME-2 is now a Toss-up.
— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is in greater danger of an upset, and his race moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. The court fight could save him, though.
Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes
Senator Old Rating New Rating Susan Collins (R-ME) Toss-up Leans Democratic Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Likely Republican Leans Republican
Graham is pretty obviously in fix it mode. Even though he skated easily to reelection last time, he now faces a credible threat from Jaime Harrison, who is outraising him. Graham took to Fox News to beg for money.
Lindsey Graham is just now realizing that crawling two kilometers up Trump’s colon won’t actually keep him safe and warm through November. https://t.co/nS7sCUm1Qq
— The Hoarse Whisperer (@TheRealHoarse) September 22, 2020
I’m not going to pretend to know the electorate of South Carolina, but if the Lincoln Project and Hoarse Whisperer think Graham’s got problems, I’ll go along with that. It’s definite that he’s made some interesting choices. He was dear friends with both John McCain and Joe Biden at one point and he’s turned his back on them both to be Trump’s lap dog. I can’t imagine that’s going to end well for him.
I think that Susan Collins is toast. I think McConnell knows it and he told Collins to go ahead and make a brave eleventh hour stance to save her seat, because he didn’t need her vote. Not trying to start conspiracy theory here, just speculating, because that’s how much I trust that woman — not at all.
These two races in particular are going to be interesting to watch. Cory Gardner and Martha McSally are both down and unless something amazing happens, it’s likely they’ll stay there.