Just  pay attention to that middle paragraph β€”  the rest does not really matter β€” 

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If you were Russia even now β€”  you might move on one of two points. You could maybe hit south for a land bridge to Crimea OR you could try and strike north to collapse the capital at Kyiv. Neither movement was likely to work β€” logistics are compromised either way and the mud was going to fuck them along with a whole shitload of pissed off Ukrainiansβ€”  but it is at least a strategy.

But honest to god β€” they are going to weaken in the north AND south (if that report is right) β€” in an attempt apparently β€”  to encircle some maybe Ukrainian army in the middle.  Like a Falaise gap or something. But there is no gap. This is where the encircled becomes encircled β€” does not even happen much in military history β€”  because it is so fucking stupid. They make themselves the ham in a ham sandwich. Because they get hit both directions, with no logistics in a very hostile territory. I mean really β€”  split your forces where both sides were already fucked. SO now you get a half a force that was screwed to begin with. What could go wrong?

Just keep their bombers down and Kyiv is pretty much spared for the most part. And if they really do this β€” war sure won’t last long.  Just shut down the vertical war here. Armor has to pull back. Do this. They are spent. Ukraine already figured they would fuck this up.

This war β€” was lost strategically from almost the beginning.  Maybe we can turn off the death soon too. Why do those people have to die in a war lost a long time ago??????????? The Ukrainians are going to die β€” those Russian conscripts are going to die β€” for what?

This whole fiasco will be taught in war college for decades β€”  about what not to do in war. Makes General Bragg look like a fucking genius for sure. 

I know. Really.  They are so fucked. Just end this killing.

When a force gets less than 70% effective β€” even the Germans surrendered. I think they are there β€” or real close to it. For example β€” if RU has lost 15,000 dead β€” it is times 3 wounded. How many deserted β€”  how much of the RU force is just exhausted and unable to go anymore. All ineffectives.

That is exactly what this means. I am so looking forward to some BS military experts explain just why they got this war so wrong.  Our military knew better β€” a lot better. And they mostly said so β€” I know thought so.  I was even one of them a long time ago as a junior officer.

And frankly the entire doomsday take on how great the Russian military was β€” is a fucking joke. Maybe they need to do a war before they pretend to know how it really works. It is a whole lot more than stick figures on a map.  You ever see how they really die? β€” they can just fucking shut up. They so piss me off. This is no game. And war is not a map. It sure gets real β€” fast.

Now β€” I can still smell cordite from then β€” rest of my family smelled decaying people. SO I think I am pretty lucky. I know those people are not going to be so lucky. My kid came thru his war smelling death too.

And now β€” I even got a masters in military history β€”  I can even teach this shit. BUT living it is a whole lot different then studying inter-war theorists or the like.

You do not know me β€”  if or not to believe me β€” I get that. Make up your own mind how you think this thru β€” plenty good to me. I bet some other vets still smell cordite though. It is a strong smell you will never forget. Like something burning?  Maybe some of you can describe it better than me. I would sure rather just forget it.

Just IMHO.

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