The Republican tax law is bringing in far less money than claimed—but it’s not an accident

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WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 04: U.S. President Donald Trump (C) congratulates House Republicans after they passed legislation aimed at repealing and replacing ObamaCare, during an event in the Rose Garden at the White House, on May 4, 2017 in Washington, DC. The House bill would still need to be passed by the Senate before it could be signed into law. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

The New York Times is at its best when it delves into long-form journalism describing the behind-the-scenes of legislation, regulation, governance, science or so forth, stuff not premised on the anonymous grievances of “senior” officials who find it useful to leak to reporters arguments too ridiculous to say in public. The Times’ look at the efficiency with which big U.S. corporations were able to extract a host of tax breaks from the Trump administration’s “regulators” in the wake of the hastily scribbled-together 2017 Republican “tax cuts” is a good example of this. It has specific corporate names, specific lobbyist efforts, and the specific tweaks they won to undermine whatever pretense the Republican law had of “closing loopholes” or, more critically, meeting the revenue claims the Paul Ryans of the party blustered it would.

It is important because, as we all know, the overall effort has ended in a budgetary disaster. That is not overstating things; government coffers are expected to be down a trillion dollars in 2020, which is less a fiscal problem than an act of budgetary terrorism.

So go, read that and come back. Back now? Great. Let’s pick this apart a little. Some small bits first:

“Republicans were racing to secure a legislative victory during Mr. Trump’s first year in office.” Eh. Republicans were racing to use unified Republican government to push forward a longtime dream of the Ayn Rand wing of the party: murder effective government through orchestrated neglect. Rep. Paul Ryan, the House Speaker at the time, had goals taken directly from Grover Norquist and other hard-right conservatives who have for decades expressed open contempt at government doing anything for anyone that did not involve bombing them; the explicit technique favored has been, since Reagan, to slash government revenues to unsustainable new lows, then use the resulting deficits to argue that steep, vicious cuts are required—for social services. For food aid, for Social Security, for Medicare. For infrastructure: Why should the government build transportation networks and hubs, rather than let the “free market” decide which roads should be built and how much it could cost to drive on them? For education, and science, and moon landings and the rest of it.

This is not a hidden agenda, and the unwillingness of the press to report it as an agenda despite literal decades of Republicans eagerly explaining their intent remains baffling. It may be that today’s reporters are too young to even remember its origins. It may be that the effort to avoid editorializing on a policy that, editorially speaking, would seem to rank somewhere a notch above sociopathic requires reporters to feign naiveté if the strategy’s Republican advocates can give even a hint of plausible deniability.

That leads to the more fundamental problem: It seems an error to claim that any of this was unforeseen. It was certainly foreseen. That Republican revenue claims, and Republican claims that “new” taxes on corporations would balance out the gargantuan new tax cuts given to the topmost one percent, were inflated if not outright fraudulent was warned of from the first drafts.

The law was “by all accounts, sloppily written”, says the Times, which is the reason that lobbyists have been able to absolutely gut much of the purported loophole-closing Republicans bragged of. This wasn’t an accident. It could have been patched before the bill was voted on; it was not.

That the Republican administration overseeing the implementation of the bill and, in specific, Trump’s version of the Treasury Department would be quite eager to accommodate lobbying efforts intended to exclude the very largest corporations from the new laws supposedly meant to target them is not an accident. It has been the operating procedure of each installed cabinet member; it heralds, again, from the same archconservative insistence on “freeing” corporations from taxes and oversight both that has been a hallmark of every modern Republican administration. What the Trump era adds to the mix is that the Trump team does its surgery not with scalpels, but with earthmoving equipment. Plausible deniability is for centrists and cowards.

What the Times has documented, then, is the after-the-fact crossing of the t’s and dotting of the i’s that was absolutely sure to happen, when House and Senate Republicans crafted the up-yours version of a tax policy, using regulations to strip whatever promises of fiscal responsibility the crafters blustered about before and during the votes.

“The Joint Committee on Taxation, the congressional panel that estimates the impacts of tax changes, predicted that the BEAT and GILTI would bring in $262 billion over a decade,” says the Times, but the actual results will be “tens of billions” less than claimed.

You will note, throughout the piece, that there seems no push by Republican lawmakers to “fix” the new holes being so lavishly drilled through their revenue plans. Even though they could. And even though the Democratic House would no doubt be willing to assist.

The budget deficit, meanwhile, has exploded to a staggering $1 trillion. It will be met, when Republicans next lose the presidency, with Republican demands that something is done about this outrage that somehow happened under Republican watch, according to the Republican plan, as a result of Republican legislation forced through via reconciliation measures so that Republicans could best steamroll over the other party. Conservatives will then demand we spend less on fixing the roads, and less on feeding the poor, and that Social Security is either gutted or at the very least given to Wall Street as seed money for whatever new gambling effort the markets will next invent.

And then they will propose another corporate tax cut. And again, the Paul Ryans of the party will lie, outright, to claim that the next one will fix all this up for sure.

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5 Comments on "The Republican tax law is bringing in far less money than claimed—but it’s not an accident"

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Rutokin
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Rutokin

It always takes democratic control to bring back the financial concerns of this country. Look what Obama had to do with the auto bailout. That paid off. The tangerine turdmuffin’s farm deal only helped the big corporate farms, the family farmers have lost so much more. Those payments will not pay back like Obama’s did. The trickle down plan has never worked at least with republiclowns.

chris whitley
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chris whitley
The trickle down prosperity never worked period. Maybe with AOC we will get some Democrats that won’t fall for that whopper again. The really bad thing about this round was that it specifically was meant to give rich whopper tax cut and the rest of us a whopper bill to pay. And yes the farmers got screwed. The best one I remember is there is a group from South America that invests in farming here. They get money in South America to help them compete against us. Then up here they get bailout money meant for Americans. Then they get… Read more »
Elli
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Elli

This picsture shows all the crooks we have in the Administration. They all need to be booted out of office. They are all a bunch of liars.

J.M.
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J.M.

I’m not investing in anymore boots and shovels, it’s exhausting. Good-night.

Dick Panico
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Dick Panico

So what’s new ? The last time ( Bush ) did this ,
we had the greatest recession in modern history.
It’s likely another one soon .
Trickledown , the mantra of the fools .
Greed , (Trump’s ) honesty and integrity.
Trump and Greed , go together, like (poop and stink )!