The last round of tariffs, J.P. Morgan analysts estimate, will bump costs to consumers from $600 after the first two rounds to $1,000. That’s eating up the majority of tax break of about $1,300 from the 2017 tax cuts.

J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. equity strategist, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, says it’s particularly bad for consumers as opposed to farmers who are getting Trump’s bribes to make up for their losses because “there is no simple way to compensate consumer.” This third round are expected to begin September 1 and the remainder, the ones Trump delayed because he doesn’t want the bad press for a war on Christmas, on December 15. This round, says Lakos-Bujas, will be particularly hard on consumers. “What distinguishes China Phase III tariffs from preceding tariffs is the impact to Consumption and Capital goods whereas previous tariffs focused more on Intermediate goods. […] This suggests that the expected consumer impact should be larger in the latest round.” That’s analyst speak for stuff consumers tend to buy more of—shoes, electronics, clothes, toys—are in this tranche of tariffs. Delaying a chunk of that until December 15 might not do the trick.

Therefore, Lakos-Bujas is predicting that the administration finds a way out. “We believe there is a good chance they end up reversing their decision and finding a way to reach some common ground with Chinese negotiators,” he said. This round of tariffs will come at a “much higher cost for the U.S. administration” in the run-up to the 2020 election, the bank’s analysts agreed. Therefore, they believe there’s “a good chance they end up reversing their decision and finding a way to reach some common ground with Chinese negotiators.”

Since Trump’s partially blinked once already, that’s possible. Or it could be wishful thinking. These guys want to keep a much friendlier Republican administration in 2021.

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This is a Creative Commons article. The original version of this article appeared here.

2 COMMENTS

  1. Good thing I dont need much and what I do buy is second hand at auctions and yard sales…. Trump is such an idiot but he is who Satan put in, this is his system afterall.

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