Tag:TheTrump"Base"

The Trump “base” revisited.

You know, for 22 months, we had Robert Mueller coming out of our ears. Mueller was like the weather, he was everywhere. The media helped to fuel this feeding frenzy by specifically referring to “the Mueller investigation” on a daily basis, even when absolutely nothing had happened that day. But believe it or not, we have had another media fueled national obsession that has gone on even longer than the Mueller investigation. And that obsession is the Trump “base,” Since November 9, 2016, the media has been fixated on this mythical creature, this silent, hidden army, that like a swarm of termites, toppled the house of democracy. There are two different aspects of the Trump base that the media loves to chew on like a dog with an old pork chop bone, who is the Trump base, and how big is the Trump base? And like most things Trumpian, the medias commentary on the Trump base tends to be riddled with hyperbole and exaggeration. How big is the Trump base? Everybody has their own view, and mine hasn’t changed since the 2016 primaries. From where I’m sitting, Trump’s actual ‘base” is between 32-34%. How did I come up with this low ball figure? Simple. It’s what he was running in the pre primary and early 2016 GOP primary polls. In both parties, the primaries are an almost purely base affair, only the “true believers” show up to vote. And from Labor Day right on through the early primaries, Trump was remarkable consistent, at 32-34%. When I wrote in November of 2015 that Trump could actually win the nomination, it was simple math. Trump was running at 45^, nobody else in the field was clearing double digits. With the early states being “winner take all,” Trump could bank enough early delegates to make him impossible to catch once the herd culled down. Which happened. Trump started clearing 50% when he became the apparent nominee. Yeah, and I was a Bulls fan back in the days when you could walk up to the ticket window a half hour before game time and buy any ticket you wanted. Nothing creates fans like winning. I have seen nothing in the last two years to make me change my mind, in fact, exactly the opposite. Trump won the electoral college with a minority 47% of the popular vote. And where has he been mired for most of the last two years? At between 38-44%.But the important thing to bear in mind is that the Trump base really is the Trump base. In 2018, the Republicans lost the national popular vote to the Democrats by more than double the amount that Trump lost the national vote in 2016! Not only has Trump failed to do what every winning President in history has done, namely to try to expand his base for the next election, Trump has managed the dubious distinction of actually shrinking his base by sending traditional “loyal” Republican voters fleeing in disgust. That is a mean trick, and unfortunately for Trump, it’s only going to get worse for the next 18 months, because for Trump, it’s not about winning, it’s about rallies. As long as he’s serenaded by drooling mouth breathers with chants of “Lock her UP!” at rallies, everything is going according to schedule. So, what is the actual Trump base? From where I’m sitting, it’s made up of […]

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