Tag:Swing states

Report: Trump in Major Trouble in Mid-West State He Had Won Big, Broader Problems?

It took Republicans and their need to please Trump to invent the term “electoral college landslide” to describe one of the closest elections in American history, one in which Trump came in second with respect to total votes. I find it critical to remember how narrowly Trump won, because it is easy to forget. He governs like he was unanimously elected, and anyone arguing otherwise is citing “fake news.” Thus it is, that when AP has a report that Trump is in major trouble in Iowa, a state he won comfortably, it is extremely significant. Per Rawstory: In 2016 Trump easily defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Iowa, wrapping up 93 of Iowa’s 99 counties, but times have changed. According to former Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsak, “They’ve gone too far to the right and there is the slow movement back. This is an actual correction.” Umm, only if you view “too far right” as synonymous with “insane” and “tariff-crazed.” Iowa has perhaps suffered the greatest damage under Trump’s “easy to win” tariff war with China, and I suspect they don’t appreciate it. But the damage is not coming from the agricultural communities so much as from the suburbs and exurbs. “Iowa’s metropolitan areas, some of the fastest growing in the country over the past two decades, have given birth to a new political front where Democrats saw gains in 2018. The once-GOP-leaning suburbs and exurbs, especially to the north and west of Des Moines and the corridor linking Cedar Rapids and the University of Iowa in Iowa City, swelled with college-educated adults in the past decade, giving rise to a new class of rising Democratic leaders.” The consensus is that “Iowa is in play.” Iowa has only six electoral votes, and will likely not swing the election on its own. But the lesson is in the emerging importance of those darn suburbs, with those college-educated people who aren’t as racist, watch the news and don’t particularly like Trump. Iowa has growing suburbs and it is giving Trump’s campaign problems. Wanna know another state with lots of suburbs and soccer moms that aren’t racist? Texas. Yes, Texas. It has become increasingly purple, and though no Democrat has won Texas since LBJ, the 2020 Democratic nominee has a chance at winning Texas for the same reason that Iowa may be in play. Simply put, Texas swung way to the left in 2018, and may be poised to go further in 2020. The state’s increasing competitiveness is due in part to its diversifying population, since people of color are more likely to support Democrats. The Census Bureau data put the state’s Hispanic population at nearly 40 percent. Trump is also struggling to win over higher-educated and wealthier voters in the suburbs. Immigration will likely continue to be a top issue for voters in the border state. When you put Hispanic immigrant children in cages, and then campaign in a state that is 40% Hispanic, you are going to have – deservedly so – huge problems. And here’s the good part, if Texas goes Democratic, forget Republican presidents for a long time. Texas has 38 electoral votes, second only to California. The reliably Republican nature of Texas has almost offset the advantage that Democrats have in California. If Republicans now lose Texas, […]

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