Tag:Republican Debates

Why the Republican Primary Matters Enough to Scare Trump

A great article brought to you by the underappreciated political analysts at Vanity Fair will convince you that the Republican primaries, the primaries occurring in states not succumbing to Trump’s effort to suppress them, may impact the 2020 presidential election just as much as the Democratic primary. No one here ought to be surprised that Trump’s support remains soft in the overall Republican vote. We have noted the lesson of the “cult leader,” who will be followed beyond all reason, right up until he is not, and then nothing can rehab the initial hold. We have covered that aspect plenty. There is another element to the equation that I haven’t appreciated. Many of Trump’s voters (the people who don’t where MAGA hats and scream about “Q”) these “soft Republicans” have not have even heard or read about many of Trump’s most damaging controversies. Many may not know of Trump’s insatiable need to profit off his conflicts between business and government. They might not know that Trump insisted upon meeting Putin alone while also grabbing the interpreter’s notes, or the shocking number of lies, including the horrid poll numbers of late, the “real” Mueller findings, and on and on. Even if some of these people did hear references to each of the above, it would have come from a Democrat mentioning it on Fox, only to have some Trump loyalist dismiss it as fake news and move on, quickly. But, in a primary, some Republicans may end up hearing some of these god-awful truths; that we’re a trillion dollars poorer as a nation, we’re not respected – at all – on the international scene, that we Americans are paying for the Chinese tariffs, and the economy is slowing. They will hear it from fellow Republicans, even ones of dubious character, and no chance to actually “win.” The article hammers home another point that I hadn’t fully appreciated. The “soft Republican” voters in Iowa and New Hampshire (especially New Hampshire) might want a “Trump rejection-vote, a safe one, one that won’t put a Democrat in the oval office, but will send a message; “Not my guy.” Added up, and a Republican primary challenger could conceivably get 15%, even maybe 20%. The number seems like nothing, because it obviously isn’t close enough to “winning,” but one is invited to imagine the news slamming the nation had a Democratic challenger garnered double digits against Barack Obama. It would be huge news because it exposes the candidate’s own internal weaknesses. Moreover, look over the comments in Trump’s Twitter feed sometime, the single biggest “strength” Trump seems to bring to the MAGA heads isn’t any “policy” or official act, no it is that Trump “owns the libs,” constantly driving us insane. They love that, because they hate us liberals. But, if Trump shows some weakness within his own party, and the weakness stems from people learning the extent of Trump’s grease-hauling, train-wreck fire of an administration, maybe Trump isn’t “owning” anyone much anymore. And that failure, which we have noted many times – and so does the Vanity Fair article – could collapse Trump’s entire movement. A Republican analyst states that Trump is a guy walking around with a paper bag full of water as support. He is keeping it all in right now, but when it leaks, it all comes down. […]

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