Tag:Politics'DemocraticPrimaries

Two names to watch out for.

It ain’t over until it’s over   Yogi Berra A little while ago, I wrote that I personally was entering a “new phase” in how I looked at the upcoming primaries. As they got closer, we’d start to see more actual on-the-ground polling in the earliest states, and that’s how elections are actually decided, state by state. I said that from then on, I was going to start calculating more based on those early primary polls, as opposed to the more generic national polls. That tree is starting to bear some fruit. There are several things in these early polls that look just about what I thought they’d look like, but also some indicators that there may be some serious roiling of the waters yet to come, especially in early states. Here’s some of the thing’s I’ve noticed. For one thing, the race seems basically stable. Biden, Warren, and Sanders seem to be in pretty much a pick-em race, with Warren and Biden normally topping the list. Also, Mayor Pete is having an uptick in Iowa, which I said he might, since he had put a  lot of ground troops in, and Indiana was close enough to Iowa for a little South Bend news to leak in by osmosis. But one thing was a little surprising to me. While the field appears basically stable, a large percentage of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire say that they may well still change their minds before primary day. Some of this may be that there are still so many flavor-of-the-month candidates in the race that people are still taking their teaspoons, before deciding which half gallon to take home from the store with them. Also, one poll showed that even in 2019, one of Elizabeth Warren’s major hurdles is electability. Even for the Goddess Of Plans, there is still a mental mountain to climb there. The combination of the numbers staying so tight in their bands for the front runners, along with the majority of voters saying that they are still open to changing their minds before polling day, that combination is making me think that there could be another dynamic that emerges here, and one that could benefit two particular people who aren’t getting much attention. I’ve written previously that there are three basic lanes, there’s the “traditional” lane, which Biden has to himself, with it’s current 27% or so. There’s the “far progressive” lane, which has Sanders and Warren sharing about 42% or so of the vote. And then there’s the “moderate progressive” lane with still close to a dozen candidates in it. And I’m starting to think that that particular lane is where the action may be for a while going forward. The voters who are occupying that lane are there for a reason. They’re there because Biden is just a wee too “old school” and stodgy for them, but Warren and Sanders are too far “out there” on the left for their comfort zone. Some of the lowest-if-the-low are slowly beginning to shuffle off to Buffalo. And from where I’m sitting, as long as there are still “moderate progressive” candidates in that lane, that is where the stragglers from the departing candidates will stay. Look, none of the bottom tier candidates have much support, otherwise they wouldn’t be bottom tier. But as more of […]

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