Well, it looks like we’ve come full circle, 25 has become 2. And after all of the screaming and yelling, hair pulling and eye gouging, we ended up exactly where most pre primary polls indicated we would, Biden vs Sanders. Ain’t democracy grand? And while I’m stunned by the speed and decisiveness of the results of last Saturday and Super Tuesday, I’m not surprised that it occurred. After all, starting with the African American community in South Carolina, led by their favored son James Clyburn, and following that resounding victory, the people of 10 other states on Super Tuesday, all the voters did was exactly what everybody had been waiting for them to do all along. They coalesced behind a single candidate. And that candidate was Joe Biden. South Carolina on Saturday and Super Tuesday were watershed moments. One of two things was going to happen. Either we were going to have a socialist Democratic candidate for President of the United States, or we weren’t. Clyburn sounded the alarm, moderate candidates who saw it wasn’t their time agreed, the voters responded, and the seemingly impossible became possible. And just an FYI, since October we’ve been chipping in to Amy Klobuchar’s campaign every month, so our favorite candidate was one who took one for the team, and we’re proud of her for that. I know that it probably drives you crazy how I sometimes seem to get bogged down in the minutiae of things, but damn it to hell, sometimes that’s where the really important shit is hiding out. And in reporting on Tuesday from Virginia, North Carolina, and Alabama, there was something that came out over and over again that I think might just be the “secret weapon” for Biden going forward, not just for the remainder of the primaries, but for the general election as well. Reporters for MSNBC spent a lot of time interviewing black voters leaving the polls in those three states, and there was a strange similarity in what they uncovered. In almost every case, voters who waited until election day to vote, broke almost universally for Joe Biden. And when asked why they chose Biden, they almost always gave the same answer. They were convinced by Clyburn’s endorsement and the results on Saturday to go for Biden. And when pressed for a specific reason why they chose Biden, the answer was almost always the same, they wanted to restore a sense of normalcy to the presidency and the country, and they wanted a decent man to be president again. Hell, even bomb throwing pundit Bill Maher said in a comedy special last year, I’d give anything for a president who bores my balls off! You can argue a lot of things about Joe Biden, one way or the other, but the two things that you can’t argue are his decency and his normalcy. Look at it this way, Michael Bloomberg was the only candidate to personally visit every Super Tuesday state, and it ended up costing him about $20 million per delegate that he collected. Biden won 10 states on Tuesday, spent no money on advertising, and didn’t even visit more than half of them. And he won blowouts, because people knew exactly what they’d get with Biden, and it was exactly what they wanted. This is something that Biden can use […]
Geez, I live for this shit! Half of the time, I’d rather watch Super Tuesday than the Super Bowl. Especially with all of the last minute twists and turns that this years race as thrown at us. But even if you don’t get down into the weeds tonight with me, there are still a couple of simple things that you can watch for that will give you an overall moderately accurate picture of how the different candidates are doing. First things first. Even if you don’t gamble, most people are familiar with what an “over/under” vet is. Let’s say the over/under for the game is 52.5. If you think that the two teams combined will score more than 52 points, you bet over. If not, then you bet under. The half point is there to prevent ties. According to MSNBC, when it comes to Bernie Sanders tonight, consider his over/under to be 600. If Sanders comes out of tonight with at least 600 delegates, then he remains the front runner, and likely has enough delegates to remain at least competitive with Biden throughout March and April, when the primary states become more Biden friendly in terms of population and integration. The more over 600, the stronger a front runner Sanders will be seen as. But if Sanders falls under 600 delegates tonight, while he may still be the front runner, he’ll be a weak one. The farther under 600 he fails, the weaker. This is because from mid March through early April, the calendar is Biden friendly, with states with larger black populations, as well as other places where Bernie may struggle. Here’s a for instance.Florida is later this month, a delegate rich state. Considering how many of Florida’s Cuban and Latin American population fled “socialist” paradises to come here, little wonder Sanders is struggling there. For another thing, use simple addition. When you look at the vote counts coming in from various states, look at Bernie’s total. Now. look at Biden’s and Bloomberg’s, and combine them. If the Biden/Bloomberg total is higher than the Sanders total, then Bernie is in deep kim-chi. Remember, Bernie is the far left candidate trying to create a socialist “movement. What he gets is what he gets. But Biden and Bloomberg are both moderates. Bloomberg got into the race as a last minute alternative to Sanders. If Biden does well tonight, then Bloomberg likely skedaddles, and throws his support to Biden. If/when that happens, then Biden should logically pick up almost all of the Bloomberg votes in upcoming primaries. If Bernie can’t out poll the combination of the two, then he’s going to have real problems securing the delegates needed for the nomination, because he can’t clone socialists. Watching those two simple things will let you get a pretty good sense of who’s having a good night, and who’s struggling. But here’s a couple of general interest things that might add to your enjoyment. In California, the magic number is 3. If Sanders is the only one who crosses the 15% threshold in California, then he figures to net about 330 statewide delegates right off of the top. If Biden can also cross 15%, then Sanders’ statewide rake drops like 80 points to 250. But if a 3rd candidate, say a Warren, or a Bloomberg, or even a postmortem Buttigieg manages […]
Sometimes people in Washington get it plain wrong!
If conservatives support police killing citizens without justification, climate denial, fact denial, science denial, racist and misogynistic behavior, or a litany of other absurd points of view about numerous important issues, we call them out.