2020 may be the opposite of what you’d normally expect.

I never seen such a thing!   Moe Howard Politics has a lot of old sayings and old traditions, mainly because it’s so old. And one of the most universally understood and accepted traditions is that there’s just something about presidential elections. Never mind that congress actually does the heavy lifting, having that name at the top of the ticket makes all the difference in the world. In fact, wide swaths of voters in both parties simply sit at home and skip the midterm elections for the simple reason that there’s no president on the ballot. Because of that fact, a great deal of care goes into selecting the presidential candidate. And not just in hopes of winning the presidency. The old adage is that a strong, popular candidate at the top of the ticket can bring out voters who might not show up otherwise, and that effect will help all of the candidates in that party down ballot. That actually makes a lot of sense, and that’s probably why it’s pretty well accepted. But because I’m so closely involved in observing this glorious combat on a daily basis, I pick things up. And after the results of last nights off year elections in Virginia and Kentucky, I noticed something, a pattern. So I stepped back and looked at it through a wider lens, over a longer period of time. And I’m seeing a pattern that I think may show that the outcome of the 2020 presidential election may be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before in terms of the ultimate decider. In 2016, with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the ballot, nationwide the Democrats beat the GOP in the popular vote by almost 3 million votes. But the very next year, in 2017, with no presidential candidate on the ballot, the Democrats in Virginia out polled the GOP statewide by more than 200,000 votes, literally coming within a random name draw of tying the House of Delegates. In 2018, with no presidential name on the ballot, the Democrats flipped 40 seats, and more than doubled their nationwide vote domination over the GOP. And last night, in Virginia and Kentucky, once again with no presidential name on the ballot, the Democrats completed the statewide sweep of Virginia government, and flipped a governor’s seat in a state that Trump won by 30+ points in 2016. You all know my old saying, once is an accident, twice is a habit, and three times is a fetish. How in the hell did the Democrats manage to maintain that momentum, to keep driving large numbers of voters out to the polls year after year, with no presidential candidate to drive enthusiasm? Well, they did it the old fashioned way, with qualified, personable candidates, and good old fashioned sweat equity. They built their campaigns from the ground up, with grassroots support, and maintained their independence in the minds of voters. They talked to anybody, any time, anywhere. And they knocked on doors. Lordy, did they knock on doors. One woman running for a delegates seat in Virginia literally dropped 15 lbs from the simple effort of knocking on as many doors every day as her legs and knuckles would tolerate. Oh, and my personal favorite, the woman who went viral and got fired from her job for flipping […]

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