Charlie Cook Said It, Not Me. What It Means.

Friends, you have to buy. Enemies you can get for free   Old German saying Politically, I choose my friends carefully. When it comes to politics, I take pride in my work, I don’t want to hear what makes me feel good, I want to hear what is. And as a result, there are three people I trust when it comes to the national mood, and polling in particular. There is Nate Silver at 538.com, there is Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia with his Crystal Ball, and there is Charlie Cook, who publishes the Cook Political Report. Those are my go to guys when shit gets real. Like his brothers, Sabato and Silver. Charlie Cook is neither Democratic nor Republican, the numbers are his religion, and he follows them faithfully. And he has the record to back up his predictions and reporting. And being a careful man, Cook avoids hyperbole and superlatives. Which makes what just appeared in The Cook Political Report even more shocking. Because, based on everything that Cook and his staff are looking at, they are coming to the conclusion that what we are looking at come November is nothing short of a Democratic Tsunami. And I mean that Charlie Cook is looking at everything! Cook isn’t just looking at national presidential polling, or battleground polling, he’s also looking at Senate polling, national mood polling, district polling, and most under reported and under appreciated, fund raising. But based on everything that Cook and his staff are looking at, they are coming slowly to the conclusion that what we’re looking at is a massacre of the Republicans at the hands of the Democrats in November. Full stop. This is why that’s important. Donald Trump is delusional, as are his followers, and nothing that Charlie Cook is going to say is going to sway him or his supporters ome iota, it’s all just FAKE NEWS! But one level below Trump, you have a whole shit load of incumbent GOP Senators that are all vulnerable , and they are all reality based. And as career politicians, they are pretty much immune to Trump’s bullshit. Unlike Glorious Bleater, these vulnerable Senators actually pay attention to reality based polling and numbers. And they’re all going the wrong way. In what alternate universe does a former state Democratic Chair poll 42-42 against GOP powerhouse Leningrad Lindsey Graham 4 months before an election in blood red South Carolina, and out fund raise him two quarters in a row? The thing that has to be most unsettling for these candidates is the fund raising numbers. One of the benefits of incumbency is having a built in donor base. The fact that these candidates are being brutalized in fundraising by local and national grassroots fund raising efforts has to worry them. And at long last, you can add in The Lincoln Project firing off ads at GOP Senators who have for so long enabled Trump’s lunacy. The handwriting is on the wall. Pedal to the metal, just do the work. The signs are there, and more and more people are starting to see it. Trump’s mental and political breakdown are going to lead to a brave new world. Keep the pressure up and watch the dominoes tumble. To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity […]

Democrats’ Grade on Impeachment Proceedings: C+

The final impeachment vote within the House will be formal and stirring, but it is also preordained and the end of the House process. Donald Trump will be the third president in our history to be impeached. That will leave a mark. They had to impeach Trump, of course they did. At issue was whether it is, or ever was, okay for a president to use his office to extort foreign interference in our elections. The answer should obviously be “no,” at no point should a president use his office to unfairly gain an advantage in an election. Ask Nixon. The Democrats made the decision, went through the necessary procedures and got it done. For that, Nancy Pelosi and her caucus deserve credit. It was not a given that they would ever bring impeachment proceedings. But I cannot forgive the Democrats for leaving so much on the table, including much of the truth, which could have made the Democrat’s case far more forceful. I give them a C plus, just a hair above average, and I mean a hair. The Democrats get above average marks primarily out of the early investigation. Adam Schiff made a brilliant decision in originally deposing the witnesses in secret. We are here today, on the precipice of the most historic vote in our political age, in large part because of Schiff’s courage in doing so. The effectiveness could be seen in the enraged eyes of Republicans. They knew damned well that without any ability to coordinate the story, the process would yield something akin to the truth and Trump Republicans are not used to having to worry about the truth. The Schiff committee’s open questioning of witnesses was adequate. No more. To the extent that the open hearings produced any courage or emotional force, it came from the witnesses themselves, especially the women, Fiona Hill and Ambassador Yovanovitch, whose composure and bravery shook the country. I was terribly disappointed with the Nadler committee. The process itself felt entirely railroaded.  I suppose that was inevitable given a timetable that I still don’t understand. Republicans, time and again, scored points by noting that they didn’t get enough of a voice in the matter. I am not sure what purpose the law professors served, but whatever it was, it backfired. The Republicans called for Jonathon Turley to testify, and Turley gave the Democrats huge ammunition in the proceedings, noting time and again that the only problem was the evidence and “thin” file. The Democrats failed repeatedly to pound on the fact that the file itself would be much thicker had Trump not hidden in a corner. Moreover, Democrats failed to highlight over and over that if proven the extortion of a foreign leader was an impeachable offense, something Turley admitted. Republicans spent the entire time in the Nadler committee complaining that the process was unfair to them. Do I think that Republicans deserve to “get what they wanted?” Of course not. But as a strategic matter, Republicans tend to hang themselves whenever given enough rope. Which witnesses were they going to call that would have helped them? Schiff? Good friggin’ luck. He would tear them apart. Hunter? Entirely meaningless, the public would see it as a total distraction, they’d never call him. If the Republicans wanted a day for “minority […]

Oops. Nunes Used PAC Money to Spoil Himself With NBA Tickets, Limos and Big Steaks

Devin, Devin, Devin, come on, man. This is embarrassing. It appears that you are going to go through some things, if you know what I mean, Ace. Per ABC News, mooo: House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., used funds from New PAC, his leadership political action committee, to purchase steak dinners, limo rides, and nearly $15,000 in Boston Celtics basketball games tickets, Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings show. Now, none of this is  illegal, don’t be silly. But just because something is legal doesn’t make it a good idea. Apparently Nunes needs a refresher course on “appearances,” especially when one spends so much time engaged in attacking others’ integrity and corrupt nature. New PAC dropped an additional $3,593 at the 4-star Omni Parker House hotel on May 8, the same day that the fund purchased tickets for the Celtics’ playoffs against the Washington Wizards. 2018 quarterly filings for New PAC show a number of more recent luxury expenditures. On March 9, bills at seven different restaurants in Las Vegas totaled over $7,000. Devin, good freeeeking luck next time you beg those PTA members for the $50.00 check that is so desperately needed. Nunes likely spent years assuring his donors that they should give him money because he is so effective in “owning the libs!” and the money will be used to “beat Elizabeth Warren and stop socialism.” Now Devin’s donors will respond with; “How does going to an NBA playoff game on my dime end-up beating Elizabeth Warren?” Unless Nunes took Warren to the game … True, much of the money is raised through wealthy corporate donations, but even corporate donors with loads of cash know that cash doesn’t grow on trees. They want to know that their money is well invested to maximize the return they sought. Treating oneself to NBA play-off games and one hundred dollar steaks may be alright once a year to celebrate a giant tax cut, but living the high life generally will not be seen as “maximizing” the value of the corporate donation. It looks like nothing more than luxuriating because one can.  It is one thing for a regular asshole like Donald Trump to gorge himself on other peoples’ money. It is quite another for someone charged with investigating “corruption” to do it. It looks bad. Apparently, Devin Nunes either never factored “appearances” into the equation, or simply doesn’t care. At this point, it doesn’t matter. He is going to have to justify what he did that deserved such fantastic self-rewards. But more importantly, it will make his fund raising much more difficult in the future, and that is what is really going to infuriate Devin. Having had a taste of the good life, hot dogs eaten in the cheap seats can feel like real punishment. But it actually isn’t real punishment. We will find out soon enough whether Nunes will face real consequences. For now, we can safely say that he most certainly will “go through some things.” **** Peace, y’all Jason jmiciak@yahoo.com and on Twitter @MiciakZoom

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