Watch For A Rare Phenomenon In Texas This Year

A rising tide lifts all boats   Ursula Faw Beto O’Roarke has been on MSNBC several times in the last few days, and he’s been wriggling and bouncing around so much, I swear he must be wearing Depends. And why not? He sees the possibility of a lifelong dream coming true. For generations, the dream of […]

One word after last night. Gridlock.

*Full Disclosure* I did not see the entire debate last night, although I caught most of it. So, if there’s something that you saw that struck you as critical that I don’t talk about, it simply means I missed it, sorry. Several people had good nights, in fact their best of the campaign. Amy Klobuchar for one. Beto O’Roarke for sure. And Pete Buttigieg had a whole series of snappy single or double sentence zingers that landed. And Joe Biden was the best he’s looked so far, swatting away criticism and jabs as the ineffective mostuiro bites that they were. Elizabeth Warren ruled her roost, with nobody directly challenging her, which will have to end soon. Sadly, we’ve seen the last substantive, front runner laden debate for the year. Because the DNC made the ridiculous and short sighted decision to leave the criteria for the October debate the same as the September debate, we are going to have at least two, if not three, useless bottom feeders like Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, and possibly Tim Ryan cluttering up the stage, once again forcing multiple nights, and tearing apart the people we really need to see competing against each other directly. Just a few observations. First, Beto moved the goalposts on the gun debate last night. He forcefully came out and stated, “Hell yeah! We’re gonna take your AK-47’s, and we’re gonna take your AR-15’s! Those have no place on American streets!” Based on the crowd response, in gun friendly Texas yet, that is now the ultimate goal of Democratic gun control, removal of assault weapons from the street. And while the position is unlikely to survive into the general election, what stating it directly did do is to make “voluntary” assault weapons buybacks a more moderate, centrist position. Personally, I have no problem with Beto’s stance, since anybody who sleeps with their AR-15 ain’t voting for a Democrat regardless. While Beto stole the show with his passion on the gun violence issue, I believe the best smack down of the night was presented by Pete Buttigies. Bernie was busy being Bernie, foaming at the mouth about the evils of private insurance, and demanding that only he and the federal government could provide healthcare. Mayor Pete advocated for private insurance options, with a public buy in option for Medicare, and then he stomped Bernie into the mud. He said something like,” If people like their present insurance, they can keep it. If not, they have the option to get Medicare. If the majority of Americans opt for the Medicare option, it will become Medicare for all, because nobody will buy private insurance. I trust the American people to make intelligent decisions regarding their healthcare, why can’t you?” The crowd ate it up, and Bernie’s enraged response only made him look silly. Forget the polls, here’s how the top tier really shakes out. Joe Biden is in first, Elizabeth Warren is in second, and Bernie Sanders is in third. I know, most polls show Bernie ahead by a point or two, but here’s why I think it doesn’t matter. In the next month or two, the field is going to start thinning out. A lack of airtime, leading to a lack of oxygen, leading to a lack of fundraising, is going to start winnowing the herd. A good number of […]

About that poll.

You all know the poll I’m talking about, the one from CNN that shows pretty much anybody not named Warren kicking Trump’s pasty, orange tufted ass out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue next November. And Warren herself is only 1 point behind, well within the margin of error, so I wouldn’t start using Mozart’s Requiem Mass for her stage entry music just yet if I were her. Biden, Bernie, Beto, Harris, and even Mayor Pete all have their way with Trump in the new poll, and all but Buttigieg are outside of the margin of error for the poll. But when you look a little closer, there are some indicators that contain even more positive news for the Democrats, both individually and writ large, even this early in the game. I’ll take halfsies! In the poll, Biden, Beto, and Bernie all top the 50% marker. This is important for two reasons. The first one is psychological. Nothing gives you confidence quite like looking in the paper and seeing that over half the country likes you. Hell, I get all warm and fuzzy if I get the thought that half of my readers tolerate me. Also, once that 50% marker is breached, it normally takes something more serious to cause a candidate to drop back below it again, success breeds success. But the second reason is even more important, at least to me. I have scoured my brain, and I covered this shit more closely than a lot of others, and try as I might, I cannot recall a single poll after the convention that showed Hillary Clinton getting over 50% of the vote. She rather stubbornly seemed to cap at about 48.5%. A;so, she was seldom if ever able to grow her lead over Trump to the point where it was outside of the margin of error in most polls. The fact that 4 current Democratic candidates, Beto, Bernie, Kamala Harris, and Biden are all outside of the margin of error, while Buttigieg is barely within the margin at 3%. This may signal Trump fatigue. “Electability” is not an issue, at least not yet In most polls recently, by far and away the #1 issue for Democratic voters in a potential candidate is electability. I myself recently wrote at some length that it didn’t matter how great the plans and programs of the candidates were, they didn’t mean jack if the candidate didn’t win! But that doesn’t seem to be an issue yet, not when you have 5 different candidates that can beat Trump at this early stage, if the polling is to be believed. Also, remember this. This poll was a binary choice, Trump vs (insert name here), among random voters. Let’s take Beto for an example. In his 52%, those weren’t just Beto voters, you had Bernie voters in there, Kamala voters, Biden voters, all of them. But when faced with a binary choice, that didn’t include their preferred candidates name, they didn’t cop out to “no opinion,” or “another candidate,” they immediately pulled the trigger for the named candidate with a “D” after his name. As long as the Democratic candidates don’t savage each other in the primaries, this will make it easier for the party to heal united coming out of the convention. Home, home on the “range” If you’re a Trump […]

The Democratic Presidential Primary “Wild Card”

There ya all go, trying to think along with me again. What a waste of time. By now, you should all know that my mind is wired like a telephone switchboard put together by a 4 year old. You call your Aunt Lucy in Chicago, and end up talking to a hand laundry in Honolulu. Youse guyz are all sitting around wondering what kind of unheard of political name I’m going to pull out of my ass and present to you as the mystery :wild card” candidate of the upcoming subway rush hour crowd that will be the Democratic primary field for 2020. But that’s not what I’m talking about at all. We can all agree that the Democratic primary is going to be a WWE style battle royale. There’s nothing wrong with this. The more the merrier as far as I’m concerned, when it comes to ideas and solutions to the problems that confront this country, not even including the Cheeto Prophet. My only hope is that when all is said and done, the Presidential primary on the Democratic side is just like the congressional Democratic primaries of 2018. When it’s done, it’s done, and then there’s the kumbaya moment between the combatants that allows everybody to proceed on the same page to victory in November. MA Senator Elizabeth Warren was on Rachel Maddow last night, having her first national interview since announcing her exploratory committee to check out a 2020 Presidential run, and she said something that set off alarm bells in my head. It wasn’t anything to do with foreign relations, the economy, or any of the other issues that the candidates will be eye gouging and kidney punching over in the coming months. But what she said could cause a civil war within the party itself if it isn’t resolved properly. Warren told Rachel that if she decided to run, she was vowing that she would take no campaign contributions from Super PAC’s or self funding billionaires.I have no problem with this, it was a strategy that worked out quite well for Democrats in the 29018 midterms, a differentiating line between them and their special interest soaked GOP opponents. But then she kind of threw down the gauntlet, and “hoped” that all future candidates would lock step with her and make the same pledge.This is an internal issue that the Democratic party is going to have to come up with a solution for, soonest. I wrote time and time again in 2018 about how effective of a weapon this position was for Democratic challengers, being able to flaunt their independence, and loyalty to their constituents, since they had sworn fealty to no one else in return for financial backing. It was an effective weapon when facing a Republican opponent. But Warren is raising the possibility of this becoming a real, and central bone of contention between candidates of the same party. And that’s not good. From my point of view, the real problem here isn’t ideological, it’s generational. The vast majority of insurgent candidates running in the House races in 2018 were younger, and had never run for any kind of public office at all. As such, they had no access to the existing donor class, or inherent knowledge of how to solicit them. It was […]

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