Look. I know I have a difference of opinion with some of y’all. Once I got off of my fainting couch in 2016, and looked at the numbers, I realized that the actual national polling was spot on for the election, it was 77,000 puddle heads in three states, less than 1% in each state […]
The Trump campaign’s October surprise that was in the works, with John Durham “proving” that the 2016 campaign had been unfairly spied upon by the FBI may just have been blunted, if not rendered moot altogether. The bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee just released it’s fifth and final report on Russia’s “aggressive, multifaceted effort” to interfere in the […]
A month is a lifetime in politics Political adage The above statement says it all. For decades, if not longer, it has been shown that the only thing that has a shorter memory span than politics are hockey goaltenders, baseball pitchers, and football quarterbacks. All of them strive to immediately forget any misstep, because they know that so will everybody else when the next thing they do comes out right. At least, it used ti be true. Generations of politicians in both parties have shut down the government, but never in an election year. Their defense was that so much happens so quickly in politics, that a year from the original event it will be forgotten. The impeachment of Bill Clinton is a perfect example. When the GOP House opened the impeachment hearings a week or so before the 1998 midterms, the GOP got pilloried. And yet, a mere two years later, the Supreme Court handed the White House to George W Bush. If every wife had a political memory, every husband would be a happy camper, and the sofa would only be used for naps. But not anymore. In the era of Trump, it’s like a dogs life, minutes are measured in years. The sham election of Emperor Numbus Nuttus sparked such outrage, and such intensity that the old axiom is dead, maybe for good. And the Republicans’ blithe refusal to recognize this new world order is going to be their downfall. When Trump and the GOP looked at the mammoth protests on the day following Trump’s inauguration, their response was Fuck it, they’ll be pissed off at something else by this time next week. But they didn’t. They were still as pissed as hell two years later in 2018, and if anything, they’re even more pissed off today. A part of it was the election itself. The election of 2016 was such an assault on the will of the American people that it couldn’t be ignored. In 2000 only a handful of Florida votes separated Bush and Gore, but in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the national ballot by 3 million votes! The American people felt that they got screwed, and when people believe they’ve been screwed, especially by the government, that tends to stick in their craw for a good, long time. So that is a part of it. But the other, much more important part of it is the nature of Donald Trump himself. Maybe the Republicans could be right, maybe people would move on, and memories would fade, if only Donald Trump didn’t insist on making himself so un-fucking-forgettable! Every single thing that Trump does, and every single word that comes out of his filthy sewer hole is a new and fresh assault on the decency of America. Before people could even begin to burn off their collective mad, it was the Muslim ban. Followed by the ACA repeal vote. Followed by the tax cut giveaway. Which begot the child separation policy at the border. And let’s not forget his statement on Charlottesville, and his cavalier statement regarding the death of Heather Heyer. Any one of these would have required time to fade, but with Trump, he kept piling them on, one log after another, so that what began as a bonfire is now threatening to become Trumpageddon for His Lowness and the Republicans. And […]
Open with your second best joke, and close with your best Rule of Comedy You know, you can spot ’em a mile away. They’re the ones who are so self contained and oblivious that they can sit there and watch a car skid off of the road in a rain storm, and then still try to do a power skid at 90 mph through the same curve. And the thing of it is, they’ll do the same damn thing again the next time around, in identical circumstances. Donald Trump just doesn’t get it. He doesn’t realize that his presidency is a freak of nature, a one time confluence of events that were a perfect alignment of a fluke. Like winning the championship at the buzzer with a 3/4 court shot, it can never be duplicated. Trump was the perfect “What the fuck” candidate at the exact moment people were fed up with the status quo, going up against a candidate who couldn’t even unite her own party, and still he lost. Until a hidden hand swept in and moved the goalposts. But in Donald Trump’s mind, he’s the greatest political genius since, oh, I don’t know, since ever? In Donald Trump’s mind, all he has to do to recreate the miracle of 2016 is to do exactly the same thing all over again, only more. Because, as a failed reality show host, Trump knows better than anybody that the longer the show runs, the wilder you have to get to sustain interest. But like that 3/4 court shot, Trump doesn’t realize that he can never recreate those exact conditions again. 2016 was his one shot at fortune and glory, and he made the most of it. In 2016 Trump went up against the perfect candidate. Trump didn’t have to be popular, although he was to his hardest core base, simply because Hillary Clinton was so unpopular with every Republican in the world. In 2016, Republicans would have voted for a serial sexual predator rather than another Clinton, and it turns out that they did. And Clinton carried just enough baggage with Democrats that when they thought it was in the bag, they just didn’t bother to show up to carry it over the finish line. Trump was able to drag Clinton down into the same most pit of unpopularity that he wallowed in nationally, simply because she was already almost there. And even if Bernie Sanders had won the 2016 primaries, I find it likely that Trump still would have won, simply because Sanders was such a divisive character in the Democratic party that Democrats would not have united strongly enough behind him either, for stealing Hillary’s shot at history. But you’re not in Kansas anymore, Dorothy. This isn’t 2016, it’s 2020. Hillary isn’t going to be on the ballot anymore, and Bernie isn’t very likely to be either. In 2016, nobody actually took you seriously, not even your own party, but in 2020, you’re as serious as a heart attack, buddy. Nobody is taking you or your racist base for granted anymore. And while the Democrats are still falling in love with their individual primary candidates, they seem to have gotten the memo. Polling continues to show that ehe Democrats as a party will fall in line with whomever the candidate is this time. Trump’s shtick is getting old. And even […]
“Facts don’t lie. The numbers don’t lie.” Science doesn’t lie.” People keep talking about all of the things that never lie. Maybe that’s why they’re like sunlight to a truth vampire like Donald Trump. Or maybe there’s another reason why he hates some of them, especially numbers that don’t lie. Back in 2016, President Bone Spurs notched 62,984,828 votes, which was good enough for 46.1% of the vote. However that fell 3 million votes and 2% shy of Hillary Clinton’s vote totals nationwide. However, when you factor in those 77,000 clueless wonders spread across WI, MI, and PA, it was enough to hand him the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in the electoral college. His Lowness absolutely fucking hates those numbers, but he doesn’t bother to try to deny them, falling back on the conspiracy theory drivel of millions of illegal immigrants that cost him the popular vote tally. Fast forward to the midterms of 2018. Forget about flipping the House, or losing ground in the Senate, forget all of that other shit. The critical takeaway in 2016 was that even though it was an unusually high turnout for a midterm election, it was not a Presidential year turnout crowd. And yet, in 2018, the Democrats garnered more than 6 million votes than the Republicans did. Here’s where I’m going with this. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 4 million votes, which assayed out to a 2% difference, she won 48-46. Oddly enough, that 46% that Trump got in 2016 was the high water mark so far for his presidency, and there’s nothing to indicate that this is going to turn around in the next 15 months. So, Trump hit his high water mark of 46% in 2016, and lost by 3 million votes, or 2% points. As we speak, Donald Trump is hovering right at about 42-43% in most major polls. Guess what? The Democrats won nationwide in 2018 by more than 6 million votes. If 3 million votes in 2016 was good enough for a 2% win, then logic would say that an extra 3 million votes in 2018 should assay out to another 2% points, right? And if 46-42 = 4%, than that dovetails almost perfectly with the difference in Democratic votes in 2018, 4% points, and where Trump is in the polls right now, 42%, or 4% points lower. Trump loves to boast that his unshakable base earned him the White House in 2016. That’s nothing more than the usual Trumpwellian bullshit we’ve all come to know and loathe. In fact, Trump cobbled together that measly 77,000 votes in those three states with a combination of “soft” GOP voters who held their noses, and disaffected independents and Obama Democratic voters who voted for change. That’s how Trump got to 46% in the first place. But i the last 2 1/2 years, Trump’s obnoxious behavior, and reprehensible policies have driven that 4% of voters away from him like a bunch of spring lambs when the Judas ewe farts in front of the barn door. And Trump has already signaled that he has no intention of doing anything over the next 15 months to woo them back, firm in his delusion that his “base” is enough to get the job done. Remember, Trump won in 2016 by 77,000 votes spread across […]
Well, you sure as hell won’t hear this one being nattered over on the Fox and Friends comfy couch any morning in the foreseeable future. Axios is reporting that a newly released study shows a direct correlation between Russian troll Twitter activity and Trump’s poll numbers during the 2016 election cycle. The study, which was conducted […]
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