Support for stricter gun control laws is opening up a lead over the opposition one mass shooting at a time. Or, when they come as close together as El Paso and Dayton and Gilroy, two or three mass shootings at a time.
Civiqs survey data shows a tie into 2016, with support for stricter laws taking the lead between the Charleston shooting and the San Bernadino shooting. Orlando’s Pulse nightclub shooting widened the gap between support and opposition. Then Las Vegas. The Parkland shooting and the activism of its teen survivors created a major spike, going from 52% in favor and 41% opposed to 60% in favor and 33% opposed. While that spike eroded significantly after a few weeks, the gap between support for and opposition to stricter gun control laws has mostly stayed above that pre-Parkland level—which had already been a significant change over two years, and in particular was still elevated post-Las Vegas.
Now, in the wake of Gilroy and El Paso and Dayton, the margin of support is opening up again. It now stands at 55% in favor and 38% opposed, a 17-point margin.
Many polls show even stronger support for specific policies like universal background checks.
But how many more mass shootings will it take for the lines in this graph to get far enough apart that even Mitch McConnell can’t ignore it?