If this Democratic panic keeps up over the last couple of national polls, I’m gonna go out and buy stock in companies that make adult incontinence products. I learned a long time ago that national polls in a midterm election are about as useful as the best man at a wedding. I’ve been a best man at a wedding, and the whole problem with it is that you never get the chance to prove that you’re the best man.
There are two recent national polls that are causing mass hysteria among Democrats, pollsters, and talking heads, the President’s popularity, and the generic congressional ballot. Both of them are useful only as bulk filler because there isn’t another royal wedding to obsess over this week. Come out from under the bed, take this tissue, sit down, and let’s look at each one of them calmly, shall we?
Presidential Popularity Poll – This poll has driven news cycles for 15 months for one reason, and one reason only. Because Trump is such a drastic anomaly. Most new Presidents, of either party, waft into Washington on a gossamer cloud of bonhomie and good will. There is a reason for this. That’s because most people realize that once a new President is elected, politicians will shut the fuck up, go back to Washington, and leave us alone for at least the next two years. Who can’t get behind that? You go guy!
But since day one, trump’s numbers have been a poster child for why tyrants like Putin and Xi hold sham elections. Trumpenstein’s popularity started out in the toilet, and then the nation pulled the chain. But suddenly now, after 16 months of inactivity, futility, and scandal, his popularity is ticking up! What gives?!?
There is a simple reason for this, the worst didn’t happen. When Trump won, there was a whole country of Republicans that didn’t want anything to do with him. Mainly because they didn’t want to be associated with him when he went down in flames. So, they either dissed him in the polls, or just didn’t reply to the polls. But a funny thing happened on the way to Armageddon. Nothing.
Despite Trump, and not because of him, Obama’s legacy economy is still chugging along. Unemployment is low, we haven’t gone to war with North Korea, or anybody else new, and they passed the tax cuts, puny as they are. Some of those who were hiding in the closet are now starting to tentatively come out and say, “Hey, actually he doesn’t suck as bad as I was afraid of! Yeah, I guess he’s doing OK.” By July or August, when gas prices climb up over $4 a gallon, when soy farmers see their beans rotting in the holds of cargo ships because China canceled their contracts, when Mexico retaliates for Trump’s steel tariffs, and consumer prices rise, and unemployment ticks up, the bloom will be off of the rose. And when October rolls around, and people see their premiums for their healthcare in 2019, Trump will be right back in the low to mid 30’s again.
And one more thing I’d like to point out. Trump is at 44%! Oh Noz! News flash. If his numbers tick up another 1.5%, Trump will be right back where he was on November 9th, 2016 after he lost the popular vote by 3 million people. Trump is not getting more popular, he is simply trying to claw his way back into the good graces of the minority of the country who voted for him, and then dropped him like a two day old diaper. And just by the way, Trump isn’t even on the ballot in November.
2018 Generic Congressional Ballot – Why are we even looking at this? The poll asks voters all across the country who they would like to see control congress next year, Democrats or Republicans? WHY? Come November, not a single one of those people is going to elect the 2019 congress! They are going to elect one representative, and maybe one Senator. The Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take over control of the House in November, and every one of those seats will be determined by the voters who live in the district, and not a random conglomerate of folks across the country who just happened to answer their phones.
And the future is bright. With the help of a detestable child molester, Doug Jones flipped a Senate seat in Alabama, a southern state as red as a baboons ass. In PA-18, Conor Lamb flipped a seat in a district that Trump won by 22 points, and that was specifically gerrymandered to prevent a Democrat from ever winning it. In Virginia in 2017, we flipped something like 17 delegate seats, and missed flipping the 18th only due to a highly suspect recount ruling. In states across the country, Democrats are flipping GOP seats in state and local special elections, and no end is in sight. You wanna win 23+ seats in November? Quit worrying about what the entire country thinks, and get your ass in gear in your district! Because, that is where each critical battle will be fought.
I remain confident of a blue tsunami in November for one reason. Because Democrats finally get it. Fat, lazy, long unopposed GOP incumbents are scrambling madly for a broad national “message” to run on. Things like Neil Gorsuch, or “I love Trump.” or that lousy $1.46 a week tax cut. Democrats across the country are campaigning on schools, jobs, local fracking, and fixing potholes. Let me ask each and every one of you a simple question. What is going to be more important to you in November, Neil Gorsuch, or making sure that the crossing gates work so you don’t get creamed by a train coming around the bend with no warning? I thought so.
A very sage reader of mine reminded everybody in a comment in my earlier article today that a tidal is always preceded by the tide going out. Remember those pics of people walking around 1/2 mile out in Tampa Bay last year before the hurricane hit? And on Friday, Steve Kornacki on MSNBC reminded everybody that in 2010, the Democrats actually led the generic ballot before they got waxed for 63 eats in that same November.
The adage goes back almost to the creation of this form of government, “All politics is local.” And never is that more true than in midterm elections. The outcome of this election will be won in the trenches of each individual district, not in national sentiment. Patience, grasshopper. The day of reckoning is coming, but each of us must work to obtain the desired outcome.