For those who don’t want to scroll through the tweets (because of all the graphs, I did not use an app to consolidate), here’s a summary:

First, the author, Kamil Galeev, is associated with The Wilson Center and went to high school in Moscow. Seems credible to me. He has many threads dedicated to the war and what led up to it. For example, Putin attacks countries when he feels like he’s losing support at home, so that was probably a large factor in his decision to invade. Also, Putin, who naturally fears a coup, may have deliberately weakened his own military, which explains some of the poor performance.

Second, this thread focuses on Russian demographics. Basically, Russians don’t have a lot of draftable males, and those who choose or are conscripted may not be the best. Manpower-wise, the Russians are being forced to turn to mercenaries and minorities. This brings up interesting points (some of which are mine). They may not be that loyal to Putin, which means they can be bought. It also makes me wonder — if Putin is so hell-bent on white supremacy, which does seem to be a motivator — what the hell he thinks he’s doing, by sending Chechens to kill Ukrainians?

Third, Galeev gives suggestions on how to sabotage the fighting force: bribe them to leave the army, especially after committing acts of sabotage. They don’t have to go to Ukraine to sit in a POW camp, but could be sent to other places. Bed, food and cash are things that would appeal to many of these soldiers.

Now, for those who want the details:


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Note Kamil Galeev does not have English as a first language, so confounds its with it’s. He gets it right in the next tweet. 

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Large families in the past

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Not the most qualified people! This is partly by design by Putin; he fears a military coup.

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That’s gotta sit strangely with the white supremacists!

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Assume that above “bad” should be “bed.”

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Many other threads can be found from Kamil Galeev.

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