On Saturday, a piece I wrote called “Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain Is the Only Thing That Will Save Us” was published in both Daily Sound and Fury and PolitiZoom. I received a few comments criticizing the fact that the article was too lengthy. It was suggested that it should have been split into three parts.
I answered one of these comments and I will expand on what I said here:
You are right. However, my three main topics flow from the first to the second and on to the third.
The first section is based on an excellent article in The New York Times called “Trump Wants to ‘reopen America’. Here’s What Happens If We Do”. It is an interactive article online that allows readers to make their own assumptions about certain factors related to the Coronavirus and compare alternative results. I highlight the likely outcome if we ALL take an aggressive approach and shelter-in-place for 90 days.
Based on my assumptions, when the Pandemic is over, there will have been about 5.7 million cases in the United States, resulting in 85,000 deaths. Contrast this to my calculation of almost 107 million cases and 1.6 million deaths if President Trump succeeds in persuading the American people to let up on their vigilance by Easter Sunday.
It is clear to me that Trump has only two objectives. The first is to get re-elected and the second is to start making money again from his real estate holdings.
I beg you to ignore Trump and take your cues from the medical experts instead. Your mayor and state governor are the people to whom you should listen. Please follow their instructions. Be prepared to shelter-at-home for 90 days and please impress upon your kids that their future depends on themselves.
Last night, there was a party going on across the street where I live. It wasn’t a large party, but I saw women holding their young children while walking in the yard. This is NOT the time for extended family get togethers, or for any travel that is not absolutely necessary.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s foremost infectious disease expert, just predicted “millions of cases” and between “100,000 and 200,000 deaths”. He has the toughest job of all because, if he isn’t circumspect, his megalomaniac boss will fire him!
As a CPA, I have a lifetime of experience in dealing with numbers. I know that even 5.7 million cases and 85,000 deaths are a lot. But, based on a population of 330 million people, 5.7 million is about 1.75%. Using the “glass-half-full “ analogy, there is a better than 98% probability that the disease will spare you. If you practice social distancing, the chances are therefore very much in your favor that nothing bad will happen if you just go out for groceries once or twice a week. HOWEVER, ALL THIS IS ONLY TRUE IF YOU, YOUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS EXCERCISE CAUTION ALONG WITH ANYONE ELSE WITH WHOM YOU MAY COME INTO CONTACT, IF AND WHEN YOU MUST LEAVE YOUR HOME.
Sheltering-at-home becomes much easier if you don’t panic or become overly depressed.
Accordingly, in the second part of Saturday’s article, I explain why anyone who becomes unemployed and was earning under $75,000 if single- or $150,000 of household joint income- ( i.e.85% of Americans) should have enough coming in from extended unemployment benefits to cover household living expenses for at least the next 4 months. (Some people will actually bring in more money by staying home and not working!)
Finally, in order to provide further assurance that it pays to remain as calm as you can, I explain that most people will find that their living expenses over the next four months will be significantly less than before . In this last section of my article, I highly recommend doing or redoing family budgets. I assure you, household expense numbers are not rocket science.
Together, we will win this war-in spite of the incompetence of our “Commander-in -Chief.”