On Polls, Three-Ways, Democrats in Disarray, and Republican Advice

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CNN / YouTube Sen Elizabeth Warren pitches anti corruption...
CNN / YouTube

So, Monmouth released an earth-shaking poll earlier today, as noted by Urs. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have shot up the polls to share a 20% lead, each, while Vice President Joe Biden pulls up just one point short at 19%.

We can trust this one more than some. This is Monmouth, some of the most respected pollers out there, and even though the margin for error is still 5%. It is solid enough that we can take it as gospel that the Democrats have – for all practical purposes – a three-way tie at the top, which is stunning.

I am not writing on behalf of the Politizoom staff or site, one way or another, with regard to taking any side commenting on what the latest poll “means” in a larger sense. Every writer can do that personally, or as an editorial group, and I likely will do so at some point.

That said, “what it means” is pretty self-evident, as explained by someone who knows far more than me, via Politico:

“The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden. But they are swinging more toward one of the left-leaning contenders with high name recognition rather than toward a lesser known candidate who might be more in line with them politically.”

Well, okay, that – too.  But I couldn’t help but notice that the “liberal” wing now has the support of 40% of Democrats, minimum, before one even factors in the percentages of some of the underlings that fall more on the progressive side.

The progressive wing outnumbers the moderate wing at a 2-1 ratio. That ought to be the headline.

It also says that 40% of Democrats believe that either Warren or Sanders is just as “electable” as Joe Biden. Indeed, these Democrats have some reasons for believing such.

if one looks to the last three Democratic presidents, they all came from obscurity, as up an coming contenders, Carter, Bill Clinton and Obama. When one looks at the Democrats who came up short, they were the icons rooted in machine politics, the people everyone considered “next in line”: Gore, Kerry, and Hillary. Our “elected” candidates share a common link, they were a controversial and dangerous choice, until they weren’t.

Do the winners sound more like Warren and Sanders? Or Joe Biden? True, the only candidate to have gone up against Trump was Hillary, who had to run against two decades of Republican branding, and two years of Russian branding. Perhaps just about any Democrat could beat Trump this time around.

And it is not that I have any issue with Joe Biden, I just do not see him as inherently “more electable” than someone like Warren or Sanders. Biden is perhaps the most likeable of all our candidates, and a fine person. He just may not be the best one to smack back at the chosen one. I sort of relish seeing Elizabeth Warren – a teacher – taking Trump somewhere he’s never been, to school.

The poll also shows that Democrats are demonstrating some needed immunity to the “recommendations” originating from the right. When Republicans “warn” Democrats about going “too far left,” you can bet that it is not because they want what is best for the Democratic party. They simply see themselves as able to deal more effectively with Joe Biden rather than facing a fairly persistent and insistent Elizabeth Warren or the always animated Sanders.

Watch Joe Biden go full left-wing firebrand in 4-3-2-1 …

Watch Warren and Sanders become increasingly embraced by those focused upon “beating Trump” … as if any Democrat isn’t focused on exactly that.

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Peace, y’all

Jason

jmiciak@yahoo.com

 

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