New analysis suggests COVID-19 deaths massively underreported, especially in the South

trevormccallin / Flickr Donald Trump Der Buhmann und die...
trevormccallin / Flickr

Because Donald Trump is the angel of death, people are dying in numbers that would have been inconceivable just a few short months ago.

We’re rapidly approaching 100,000 officially reported coronavirus-related deaths in the U.S., and Donald Trump thinks it’s time to reopen our churches, ostensibly so people can thank God for the steady leadership of Donald Trump, who’s handled this plague like a real pharaoh. (I’m actually wondering if I should start browsing online shopping sites for umbrellas hardy enough to handle a sudden downpour of frogs, because Trump’s heart — and brain — are still clearly hardened.)

Unfortunately, it turns out the actual number of dead might be considerably higher than the official number.

The Surgo Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit that “integrate[s] ideas and approaches from multiple disciplines to examine stubborn problems in a new light,” recently did a deep dive into U.S. COVID-19 cases and concluded that the official picture is likely a lot rosier than reality:

At Surgo Foundation, we’ve analyzed county-level mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to paint a more granular picture, highlighting disparities in death reporting that were previously unavailable. Now, for the first time since the pandemic began, we’re able to study excess death counts at the county level in the United States.

And what we’ve learned is disconcerting. Our data suggest that we may be especially undercounting COVID-19 deaths in Southern parts of the US. In more than 200 of the counties we examined, excess death rates were between two times to 30 times higher than reported COVID-19 death rates.

This is particularly alarming considering the number of states — particularly red states — that are beginning to reopen their economies.

So what does this mean with respect to actual numbers? Prepare to be further alarmed:

Across the 366 counties we examined, there were on average 51 more deaths per 100,000 people than the average for the same period in 2014–2018. If this rate held against the entire US population of 328 million, this would amount to over 167,000 excess deaths this year to date.

In some cases, the Surgo Foundation reports, the discrepancies between reported COVID-19 deaths and unexplained excess deaths were particularly striking:

In some counties, this number is far higher. In Lee County, Mississippi, for example, the COVID-19 death rate is 31 per 100,000 people, but the excess death rate is 398 per 100,000 — about 13 times higher.

We also observed that a number of counties in the Southern US … have very low reported COVID-19 death rates, but high excess death rates, even if they’re not as extreme as they are in Lee County. This raises the possibility that deaths resulting directly from COVID-19 are being underreported.

Given the persistent lack of testing in some (dare I say “most”) areas of the country, it seems downright criminal to be reopening the economy right now, especially if the Surgo Foundation’s numbers are credible. As the foundation notes in its report, “Undercounted death tolls give policymakers a false sense of security about the safety of reopening the country, and put residents at risk.”

Ah, but Donald Trump’s reelection is at risk, and that’s all that really matters to him.

So how many more members of his flock will he send to the slaughter? Looks like we’re about to find out.


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4 Comments on "New analysis suggests COVID-19 deaths massively underreported, especially in the South"

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Big surprise – excess mortality vs reported COVID-19 deaths is an issue globally, however only in the US it’s also fodder for the presidency/election

The undercount is intentional in the red states to give the public a false sense of security. Abbott here in Texas knows that the deaths are increasing. They were up to nearly 50 per day until the last week & now it’s in the teens per day. How can that be? We’re finally testing more, # of infections are going up, 75% of the ICU beds in a nearby major city are occupied but the # of dead Texans is going down? Abbott doesn’t want to pay unemployment, can’t afford it, they don’t pay state tax down here & they’re… Read more »

ALL our government institutions,departments, etc. have been corrupted by trump and supporters. I absolutely do not trust any data coming out from any of them. They ALL belong in prison. Seek the truth and stay safe.


Trump must
be brought up on charges of crimes against humanity.