My Challenge Goes Out to Donald Trump

That Trump DIDN’T say  was that he would convey his blessings on  those governors who choose to open for business later than May 1^st. In fact, this afternoon,  he changed course and  proceeded to threaten to “close down”  any states that refuse to reopen on his demand. I wonder if he possibly could have thought” Hey, wait a minute , I may be doing them a favor!” (Not likely, I guess.)

At the time I am writing this, Worldometers, an internet site that keeps track of total cases and deaths by state (as well as internationally),   shows a total of 673,215 cases in the U.S. and 34,384 deaths.

For the past few weeks, I have been composing  articles in which I have calculated projected infections and deaths to the end of October based on medical experts’ analyses.

Assuming an infection rate whereby one infected person will pass on the virus to 2.2. other people, here are the numbers yet again:

If we open the country on                       May 1               May 15

Number of infections by late October   2.9 Million           1.1 Million

Number of deaths                              83,600                       35,900

The projected infection  rate  based on

673,215 cases now is                          4.3 times               1.6 times

If the infection rate jumps from

2.2 to 2.3:Infections by late October    10.5 million            2.9 Million

Projected to die                                    280,100                  92,000

10.5 Million cases over the next few months would totally destroy our ability as a nation to provide healthcare. And, if you think our economy has suffered so far, well, it’s possible that you ain’t seen nothin’ yet…

I know that the impatient redneck assholes who can’t stand  being told what to do and hate sitting at home when they could be out  carousing in their neighborhood bars aren’t going to read this-assuming they can actually  read. But if you are reading this, PLEASE pass my message  on to the mainstream media. (I find that there is too much reporting and not enough analysis.)

Those of us who are willing to listen to well-meaning leaders like  Governors Cuomo in New York, Whitmer in Michigan and Newsom in California are really the ones who should be shouting “Don’t Tread on Me” from the rooftops.

As careful as one may be, there is always  the risk of  contracting  the virus from someone who has it but is asymptomatic.(Once a week, I go to the grocery store during senior hours.) Nevertheless,  I don’t want to assume the risk of interacting with anyone who has consciously abandoned all efforts to stay safe.

Today, The New York Times reported on  the question:

“How will we know when to reopen the country?”

The Times referred to an American Enterprise Institute report,  compiled by Scott Gottlieb (former FDA Commissioner), Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson .

The experts staked out four goal posts for recovery:

1.Hospitals in each state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care.

2. Each state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms.
3. Each state must be  able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.

4.There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

So, here is my challenge to Donald Trump since he appears ready to throw caution (and our well-being) to the winds:

Donald, I dare you to leave the “shelter” of the White House and  visit the first three states that open up on or before May 1 for one full day each. During your visit , I dare you to shake hands with 500 of your ardent followers in each state. It would be great for your re-election chances if you could also kiss some babies wherever you go.

One condition, though: Nobody wears a mask or gloves. (This gives new meaning to the expression “let the gloves come off”.)

Remember, buddy, if the medical experts are right and you’re wrong, a lot more Republicans will succumb to Covid-19 than Democrats!