Before I can share my challenge to Donald Trump with you, let’s quickly review what happened recently — if I can get my head to stop spinning.
That Trump DIDN’T say was that he would convey his blessings on those governors who choose to open for business later than May 1st. In fact, this afternoon, he changed course and proceeded to threaten to “close down” any states that refuse to reopen on his demand. I wonder if he possibly could have thought” Hey, wait a minute , I may be doing them a favor!” (Not likely, I guess.)
At the time I am writing this, Worldometers, an internet site that keeps track of total cases and deaths by state (as well as internationally), shows a total of 673,215 cases in the U.S. and 34,384 deaths.
For the past few weeks, I have been composing articles in which I have calculated projected infections and deaths to the end of October based on medical experts’ analyses.
Assuming an infection rate whereby one infected person will pass on the virus to 2.2. other people, here are the numbers yet again:
If we open the country on May 1 May 15
Number of infections by late October 2.9 Million 1.1 Million
Number of deaths 83,600 35,900
The projected infection rate based on
673,215 cases now is 4.3 times 1.6 times
If the infection rate jumps from
2.2 to 2.3:Infections by late October 10.5 million 2.9 Million
Projected to die 280,100 92,000
10.5 Million cases over the next few months would totally destroy our ability as a nation to provide healthcare. And, if you think our economy has suffered so far, well, it’s possible that you ain’t seen nothin’ yet…
I know that the impatient redneck assholes who can’t stand being told what to do and hate sitting at home when they could be out carousing in their neighborhood bars aren’t going to read this-assuming they can actually read. But if you are reading this, PLEASE pass my message on to the mainstream media. (I find that there is too much reporting and not enough analysis.)
Those of us who are willing to listen to well-meaning leaders like Governors Cuomo in New York, Whitmer in Michigan and Newsom in California are really the ones who should be shouting “Don’t Tread on Me” from the rooftops.
As careful as one may be, there is always the risk of contracting the virus from someone who has it but is asymptomatic.(Once a week, I go to the grocery store during senior hours.) Nevertheless, I don’t want to assume the risk of interacting with anyone who has consciously abandoned all efforts to stay safe.
Today, The New York Times reported on the question:
“How will we know when to reopen the country?”
The Times referred to an American Enterprise Institute report, compiled by Scott Gottlieb (former FDA Commissioner), Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson .
The experts staked out four goal posts for recovery:
1.Hospitals in each state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care.
- Each state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms.
- Each state must be able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.
4.There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.
So, here is my challenge to Donald Trump since he appears ready to throw caution (and our well-being) to the winds:
Donald, I dare you to leave the “shelter” of the White House and visit the first three states that open up on or before May 1 for one full day each. During your visit , I dare you to shake hands with 500 of your ardent followers in each state. It would be great for your re-election chances if you could also kiss some babies wherever you go.
One condition, though: Nobody wears a mask or gloves. (This gives new meaning to the expression “let the gloves come off”.)
Remember, buddy, if the medical experts are right and you’re wrong, a lot more Republicans will succumb to Covid-19 than Democrats!