Perry Bacon Jr wrote an interesting article in FiveThirtyEight that details how a Blue Wave in the midterms sets up Trump on a path to impeachment. Clearly, the current set of Republican sycophants aren’t interested in impeaching Trump:
But here’s the thing: The conditions are developing for the U.S. House to be considering Trump’s impeachment less than a year from now, even as Democratic Party leaders are actively trying to downplay this possibility. There are four things that clearly would have to happen for the groundwork for Trump’s impeachment to be set. All four are plausible, but none is guaranteed. And two will largely be determined by this fall’s elections.
There are four things that have to happen for the House to be considering impeaching Trump by this time next year:
- Dems win the House in November. An obvious first step, since the vote on impeachment proceedings start in the House and the Republicans have shown that they favor party over country, especially those in the House (Devin Nunes, I’m looking at you).
- The House Democratic caucus becomes pro-impeachment. The current leadership is downplaying impeachment, mostly because they know they can’t get it done. Al Green has tried twice and he’s only gotten 66 of the 218 votes needed. But things change mightily when victory is a possibility. The key here is that the Dems decide that impeachment is the best way to go, instead of pursuing other ways to neutralize Trump.
- A pro-impeachment speaker leads the Dems. Pelosi is in line for this job, but she is fairly controversial and may not return as the speaker even if the Dems win. In any case, whoever becomes the speaker, a pro-impeachment stance is a must.
- Dems can decide on impeachable offenses. There are various offenses for which Trump could be impeached: being unfit for the job, obstructing justice in firing Comey, and the emoluments clause. Impeachment is a political process, and politics must play out so that the Dems can come to an agreement on the approach.
Are we less than a year away from impeaching Trump? It could happen even without Robert Mueller bringing down the legal hammer from his investigation. It starts with the Blue Wave in the 2018 midterms, and it ends with Trump facing impeachment charges in late 2018 or early 2019.