Friends you have to buy. Enemies you can get for free
Last week, before my relapse, I wrote an article on how Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg were actually performing a public service with their carpet bombing of the nation’s airwaves with their TV ads.Not two days after it went up, Rachel Maddow showed a mind blowing graphic on her show that dealt exclusively with what I had written about. God knows, her research capabilities are far superior to mine, and my appreciation for her efforts and results is boundless. Basically, what she found is what I stated, that it’s working.
First, a quick recap of the generalities, and then a bit deeper of a dive into some interesting specifics. Rachel’s research showed that during the reporting period that they looked at, Trump had spent just over $6 million in advertising. This was more than just two “mainstream” candidates on the Democratic side, Andrew Yang, whi spent I believe about $8 million, and Mayor Pete, who topped $10 million. But the graphic had to be reconfigured to show Steyer’s insane $67 million in advertising, and Bloomberg’s truly ridiculous $137 million. Nevermind the Democratic field, between the two of them, Bloomberg and Steyer outspent His Lowness by more than 30-1!
In my article, I highlighted the fact that both Steyer and Bloomberg were spending heavily in states that were not early voting primary states. In fact, Mike Bloomberg has forsaken the first four primaries, and started advertising in the Super Tuesday states and beyond. I noted in the article that this was beneficial, not just to Steyer and Bloomberg, but to all the Democratic states, because the ads opened with a heavy slap at Il Douche, before switching to the specific candidates, and were running in states where Trump’s presence was light, if not non existent. This meant that the ads were framing Trump negatively, and often, with no offsetting response from Trump.
But thanks to Rachel, and some recent polling, we can now see exactly how this works, at least in Steyer’s case. Over the weekend, Tom Steyer pulled a rabbit out of his ass and qualified for tomorrow night’s debate. He did it by grabbing a 12% share in Nevada, and a 15% second place share in South Carolina. Those were two impressive hauls, but with all thing, the devil is in the details, and it’s easily understandable when you do a little comparison shopping.
In both Iowa and New Hampshire, Steyer is pootling along at a less than stunning 3-4% in most polls. This is because while they may not be spending as much, all of the major candidates are up and running with ads of their own in both states, and the local networks and stations are reporting on each candidates live appearances in the state. Basically, his message is being diluted by the advertising and news coverage that the other candidates are receiving.
But n Nevada and South Carolina, Steyer has an empty field in front of him. As most of you know, I live in Vegas, and it’s impossible to go through an hour without getting slapped with at least one Steyer ad. And since there a certain number of people who will respond to a poll question by saying the first name that comes to mind on the subject, his ads are putting his name front and center in voters minds. Try this little experiment. Start looking at Nevada polls starting late in the week after the Iowa caucuses, and the South Carolina polls starting late in the week after the New Hampshire primary. The logic is simple. Following the Iowa caucuses, candidate ad spending will move on to the next state in the schedule, Nevada, and South Carolina after the New Hampshire primary. I’m betting that you’ll see Steyer’s poll numbers drop back to low to middle single digits once the competition for airtime increases in those states, and personal appearances increase.
But in one sense, it really doesn’t matter, because the net effect is the same. Both Steyer and Bloomberg are carpet bombing the airwaves in states that Trump hasn’t even thought of yet, and the effect is brutal. As I noted, the ads leave other Democratic contenders alone, and each starts with a hard shot at Trump before pivoting to the candidates point of view. When you see these, you’ll know what I mean. If you take out the candidates personal plea, and replace it with filler, you have ready to go Super PAC ads, heavy on healthcare at the moment. And where is Steyer spending heavily nw? How about Arizona, which is nowhere in sight yet on the calendar. Think Trump is responding?
And don’t think that El Pendejo President isn’t paying attention. As a panelist on MSNBC sad earlier today, Trump must have spent a ton of time watching the football playoff games over the weekend, because suddenly he’s fixated on Mike Bloomberg. I watched all four games over the weekend, and every third or fourth ad was a Bloomberg ad, hammering Trump on healthcare and preexisting conditions. All of a sudden today, Trump is slamming his loser former nemesis Bloomberg on Twitter, and tweeting out how it was him who personally saved people with preexisting conditions. Jeez, getting a little diaper rash there, Donnie Depends?
And it only gets worse for Der Gropinfuror, because over the weekend, both Steyer and Bloomberg made emphatic public statements that, even if they personally exit the race, their money and their organizations are in it to the end. Let’s not forget, one of Bloomberg’s good will gestures to the Democrats when he got into the race was to create a cash cow fund for other down ballot Democratic candidates, refillable as needed.These guys have the kind of actual billions that Widdle Donnie can only dream about, and both have made it clear that for these two Blues Brothers, taking down Trump is their mission from God.
And it isn’t just the money either, both of these guys are superb businessmen, and in ways that will hurt the most. Mike Bloomberg has spent half of his life putting together an analytics network that can’t be topped, and I doubt that Tom Steyer built and ran a successful brokerage firm by being a slouch in the analytics department himself.Between the two of them, they’ll expose Brad Parscale for exactly what he is, a pathetic, third rate, nothing little wiener. And Tom Steyer has shown the kind of organizational skills, not only with the online impeachment effort, but with his voter registration and GOTV drive in 2018 that could signal a true game changer.
God, I love it when a plan comes together. And while, as I’ve previously stated, neither one of these guys is my primary choice for President, I’d certainly vote for either one over Traitor Tot. But if these two are good to their word, then the paradig of the entire general election cycle may be shifting beneath our feet, and I think Trump knows it as well. And it won’t be all about the Benjamins, baby. Their logistial and ground support is something the GOP will have no answer for. And thanks to Rachel’s outstanding research, we can get a glimmer of how at least some of this may start to play out.
To know the future, look to the past. before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen