Manchin and Synema have voted both times supporting the reasonable Warnock compromise bill (backed by Beto and Abrams/Obama etc).
Manchin has made it clear he is ok with painful talking filibuster and does not see it as “weakening or destroying the senate”.
Manchin and Synema have voted for both budget resolutions. Pelosi is holding firm on the House and the 9 democrats are just making noise about what comes first. They will vote for the actual bills.
Chuck Schumer and Bernie Sanders have been firm that they will be done and sent to the president for signing.
Biden will keep on bringing good news (student loan cancellation plus forbearance, covid vaccine/mask/boosters, and people remembering his speech as ending the forever wars started by Bush/Cheney and worsened by Trump).
Between now and December 31st, there will be a turnaround in approval ratings. He will be 55-40 by peak 2022 midterm campaign season/debates.
2024 peak election season will be 60-35(36) and 2028 election season 66(67).
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