Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Updated 7:08 PM ET, Tue November 23, 2021
(CNN)It’s the absolute worst-kept secret in politics: Donald Trump is full-speed-ahead on a 2024 presidential bid.The latest evidence came Tuesday when Politico reported on polling conducted in five swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — pitting the former President against current President Joe Biden.The polling was paid for by the Trump super PAC “Make America Great Again, Again!” which is the real name for the organization. CNN does not typically report partisan polls as they are paid for by, well, partisan candidates.
The data, according to Politico, showed Trump ahead of Biden in each of the states by margins ranging from 3 points (Georgia) to 12 points (Michigan).
The numbers, while clearly encouraging for Trump, are less important than the fact the polling is being conducted at all.
What surveys in those five swing states are clearly meant to make clear — to anyone and everyone considering a run for the 2024 GOP nomination: Trump is the prohibitive favorite in any such race.Enter your email to subscribe to the CNN Newsletter The Point with Chris Cillizza.close dialogSign up for CNN’s
.“Poll after poll clearly demonstrates that former President Donald Trump is still the 800-pound gorilla in the GOP and would be its 2024 nominee should he run,” Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the polls, told Politico. “This new data clearly shows that today the voters in these five key states would be happy to return Trump to the White House and send Biden packing.”
Much of what Trump and his allies are doing at the moment, with the 2024 election nearly three years away, is trying to keep the field clear for the former President.
They know that ambitious politicians — Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Josh Hawley of Missouri to name two — are circling the 2024 contest. And the Trumpists want this message sent to those pols as loudly and clearly as possible: This is Trump’s race to run, not yours.