Cook Political Report: Trump may be “close to the point of no return”

James Currie / Flickr Donald Trump Rally...
James Currie / Flickr

Cook Political Report released its latest Electoral College outlook. Add this to the growing Everest of bad news for Trump.

Some highlights:

  • Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and NE-02, previously tossups, are now “Lean Democratic.”
  • Maine-AL moves from “lean Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” while ME-02 moves from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
  • Georgia moves from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”

The full breakdown is here. With these moves, Biden now has 279 electoral votes in the solid, likely or lean Democratic category, compared to 188 solid, likely or lean Republican votes for Trump. In Cook Political Report’s analysis, Trump would need to sweep all of the toss-ups and then scoop up at least 11 “lean Democratic” votes (presumably NE-02 and either Minnesota or Wisconsin).

In other words, at this point, Trump would need to thread the needle to win another term. And according to Cook Political’s Amy Walter, a lot of Republican strategists know it.

Republican strategists we’ve spoken with this week think Trump is close to the point of no return. A couple of others wondered if Trump had reached his “Katrina” moment: a permanent loss of trust and faith of the majority of voters.

In talking with strategists on both sides this last week, it’s also clear that Trump is dragging Republican congressional candidates with him as well.

Reportedly, Trump is trailing in districts where he romped in 2016, and a lot of second-tier and third-tier Democratic Senate candidates are printing money.

Small wonder that, as Walter puts it, “this election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave.” In other words, unless Trump can right the ship, he could potentially get Goldwatered, Hoovered, or Landoned.

Giving my age away here—but were Democrats panicking like this in, say, 1972 and 1984? Those seem to be the only elections I can recall in recent times where it was already clear the Democrats were getting stomped. The only difference is that at least in those years, the Democrats still had some infrastructure. The Republicans don’t seem to have much of that left now.

Thank you to all who already support our work since we could not exist without your generosity. If you have not already, please consider supporting us on Patreon to ensure we can continue bringing you the best of independent journalism.

Leave a Comment

4 Comments on "Cook Political Report: Trump may be “close to the point of no return”"

avatar
newest oldest most voted
James Simcoe
Guest
James Simcoe

I’ve seen polling on ‘538’ that trends Florida and Arizona Democratic. My count is @ 330 electoral votes for Biden.

Mary
Guest
Mary

Everything Trump touches DIES!

Independent
Guest
Independent

The republicans ain’t got no plan

drjillinNH
Guest
drjillinNH
He’s beyond saving, redemption, acculturation, potty-training, speaking in complete sentences, and playing a winning game of golf, so it’s genuinely wonderful he’s going to lose the next election bigly – HUGELY! Except for three new miles of beautiful wall, handily killing 100,000 more Americans (so far) by doing nothing, poisoning the planet by discarding all water, soil, air regulations assuring a livable planet for a few hundred years more, losing 5,000 little children wrenched from their families and losing them, ALL HE WILL have actually ACCOMPLISHED is losing the US presidency by receiving an embarrassing percentage of votes, in November….and,… Read more »