Thursday, July 18, 2019
AFP news agency / YouTube Polls open in New York for...

About those polls

*Sigh* No, I am not about to start prognosticating on the basis of some recently released poll or other, so don’t you roll your eyes at me! But it’s kind of a fact of political life, you can’t have an election, or even a campaign, without polling. Although imperfect, polling is the most effective way we have of obtaining a “snapshot in time” of how the body politic feels about a particular issue, candidate, or match up. And of course, a poll is only as accurate as its methodology. Right now, almost all polling being conducted is in the 2020 Democratic primaries, which only makes sense considering, proclamations from the ghost of William Weld notwithstanding, Trump is running unopposed. When looking at these polls, people love to keep preaching from the mount that “it’s early yet.” And indeed it is, but not that early, Most candidates have been running around like nuts now for the last 5-6 months, making speeches, shaking hands, snarfing local delicacies, and polling at 0-1% is not a positive sign. True, the Vegas Golden Knights came within 3 games of winning a Stanley Cup in their first year, but the smart money wasn’t on them. But as much as the polling is centered on the Democratic primaries, we are seeing some national polling, as well as some early “battleground state” polling of head-to-head match ups between Trump and the “top tier” Democratic candidates. And it is that context that I want to point out something that I think a lot of people are missing, and it really should be considered. A new poll just showed all 4 top tier Democratic candidates beating His Lowness nationally. I don’t have it handy, but I believe the numbers were something like Biden 52-43, Sanders 51-44, Warren 48-43, and Harris 45-44. Yes, I know that it’s freakin’ early yet, but none of these are good news for Trump, if for no better reason than Trump is the most purely “set in stone” opinion President in modern history in terms of his popularity, whereas most of the Democratic candidates have “room to grow” with people who don’t know them that well yet. There is plenty of time for voters to change their minds and warm to Elizabeth Warren, or Kamala Harris, but very few people are going to change their opinion of Donald Juan Trump. Now, here’s the part that nobody is thinking about, and personally, I think it’s very enlightening. In the latest poll I just saw, a NBC News-WSJ poll, Je Biden was leading the pack at 26%, Warren was at 19%, and Harris and Sanders were tied at 13%. Most recent polls have been consistent with this one, with individual candidates fluctuating by 2-3%. But here’s the McGuffin. Think about it for a minute, right now Joe Biden leads the Democratic pack with only a quarter of the Democratic primary voters backing him, and yet 52% of national voters have him cleaning Trump’s clock! Bernie Sanders actually cracks a smile on a day when he can hit 15%, and yet 51% of American voters have him kicking Trump’s ass! None of the top tier Democratic candidates have anything even approaching a lock on the nomination yet, but whoever one actually reaches the promised land already has a plurality, if not a majority of the […]
Guardian News / YouTube Five times Donald Trump refused to...

You thought the last 2 1/2 years were the worst? Dream on.

Forewarned is forearmed   14th century Latin proverb So, you thought that with the Epstein moon once again circling Alpha Trumpori 1, we had finally reached the depths of the depravity of the Trump administration? Well, as Bachman-Turner-Overdrive used to warble, “B-b-b-baby, you just ain’t seen n-n-n-nuttin’ yet.” Although we are more than halfway through the first, and please Dios, only Trump term, the worst is yet to come. There are several reason why I say this, and while none of them are reassuring, they are all logical, and fit in with facts as we already know them. For starters, Trump is nothing if not predictable. Since the day he slowly farted his way through Gucci silk down that golden escalator in Trump Tower, to the adoring applause of paid “supporters, Trump’s pitch has been carefully crafted to be music only to the ears of the misbegotten souls who find his dreck palatable. He speaks to a forgotten, or unattended group of the downtrodden, chock-a-block replete with grievance, fear, and hatred. This is why Trump held so many rallies during the campaign, and holds so many now. He is constantly on the lookout for new, more sensational crimes and grievances to lay before his supporters. He uses these rallies not only because his insecurity requires constant ego gratification, but also as a sounding board for something new to rile up his llama brained followers. If he trots something out at a rally, and it stirs up the base, he’ll use it again and again. If it falls flat, he’ll try another one the next time. His followers tend to have the attention span of newborn puppies, so constant stimulation and distraction are required. Since his miraculous electoral college victory, Trump has stunned political historians, analysts, and talking heads for being the first President in history who, upon winning, did not pivot to the middle to increase his base to better his chances for reelection. Instead, Trump has relentlessly pivoted even further in the direction of his howling mob, and away from the mainstream. The problem with a pack of rabid dogs is that they require a steady supply of fresh meat. The impending ICE raids are just the opening salvo of a descending stairway of cruelty, especially to “the others.” Second. Trump is unchained. This occurred two ways. First, say what you want about political carp like Reince Priebus, John Kelly, Rex Tillerson, and the rest. Whatever their sins, they were a restraining influence on Trump’s worst excesses. But by a combination of attrition, as well as Machiavellian back stabbing, all of those restraining influences have been removed,replaced by toadying sycophants whose Tantric chant is “Let Trump be Trump,” turning him over to the tender mercies of racist Rasputin’s like Stephen Miller. Trump is now free to indulge his most base whims. Last November completed the transformation. In the 2018 midterms, the GOP lost the House, but that was actually a boon for Trump. Trump didn’t lose many Trumpaholics in safe red districts. What Trump lost were more traditional conservatives like Char;ie Dent, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and Carlos Curbelo, House members who didn’t even hold steerage class tickets on the SS Trumptanic. But what they did represent were a block of about 30-40 more traditional Republicans, who properly outraged, could raise their voices in […]
WMNF Community Radio / Flickr Joe Biden in Tampa 2011...

Biden’s biggest “edge”

We are still “early in the process” as orating noggins like to opine, but not quite that early anymore. Most candidates have had 4-5 months to take up temporary rotating residence in the early primary states, and we have the first round of debates under our belts, along with a couple of fund raising cycle reports. And as I like to say, tempus does fugit.” The latest poll from NBC News/WSJ has produced some expected results, but also some surprises. For starters, while some widely expected candidates have surged to the “top tier,” surprisingly several early favorites like Booker, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, and O’Rourke have failed to be able to get their message across, or generate traction in the field. And now that the novelty has worn off, and other candidates are “stealing his thunder,” Sanders has become mired firmly in third, and in some polls fourth place. Hell, he isn’t even in the top three in fundraising, which was his proudest achievement in 2016.And my favorite one is the fact that only 12% of Democratic primary voters have “locked in” on any one candidate, meaning that nobody is safe. But the one category that jumped out at me is the one that provides Joe Biden with his best “secret weapon.” Right now, the dominant characteristic that Democratic voters are looking for in a candidate is that dreaded and nebulous concept of electability. From day one, Biden has been the prohibitive favorite in that category. Long after the field has winnowed down to a half dozen or less, the dominant question in Democratic voters minds is going to be, “Which of these people can best fuck Trump’s shit up?” It’s hard to see how anybody topples Biden from that throne. Kamala Harris cleaned his clock on national TV in the debate, and he still doubles up on her in the polls in electability. The real problem for the other candidates is Biden himself. Joe Biden is to Democratic politics what that sweater, and those slippers were to Mr Rogers. He is a warm, fuzzy sense of comfortable familiarity. Bernie Sanders has been around in congress almost as long as Biden has, but until he started bellowing about free college, and Medicare for all in 2016, most voters outside of New England couldn’t have picked Bernie Sanders out of a police lineup. But everybody knows “Joe”, and from long before he became Barack Obama’s wing man. Biden comes by his electability edge the old fashioned way, he’s battle tested in the national eye. In 2008, in a wonderfully gaffe free performance, Biden carefully and respectfully put Caribou Barbie in the corner with a dunce cap on her head in front of a national television audience in the Vice Presidential debate. And in 2012, he laughingly “malarkey!”ed fellow Irishman Paul Ryan out of town on a rail. Biden is a well known entity on a high pressure national debate stage. So, what is Biden’s secret sauce in his electability edge? The comparison between Trump himself. Biden is everything that Trump is not, He’s open, engaging, friendly, smiles often, he’s knowledgeable, and most of all, he’s authentic. He comes across as being confident, qualified, and capable, and does it without seeming to be arrogant or haughty. And the thought of sharing a stage with Biden has Trump’s manhood shriveling up like a […]

Kamala Harris has an interesting conundrum.

OK all a y’all, go ahead, give ma a ration of shit about Alex Acosta and my prediction. But hell, how was I supposed to know that somebody so craven and cowardly as to publicly debase and humiliate himself yesterday would suddenly grow a pair overnight, and tell Trump to fuck off. Live and learn. But now, on to my main aimless meandering for the day. A look at the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday shows some surprising results, reconfirms somethings we already thought we knew, but it also exposes what could be a somewhat surprising, and also troubling tactical conundrum for Senator Kamala Harris going forward. The poll hows that Harris has ridden a wave of popularity from her trouncing of Joe Biden in the debate to a solid, statistical tie third place with Bernie Sanders. This is not surprising, since Harris showed on a stage in Miami, in front of 18 million viewers, that she can disassemble and repackage an old, white guy. And if she can do it to Biden, she can do it to Trump. from the day he announced, and even before that, his candidacy has been powered by his incredibly strong support in the African American community. In every poll, he has at least lapped, and in some cases double lapped his opposing candidates in support from African American voters. And if you’re going to win not just the White House, but the Democratic nomination, you’re going to have to do it with the support of black voters, especially black women voters, and they have been solidly in the corner of Biden from day one. How did Harris turn Biden into Da Vinci’s The Dissected Man on Stage in Miami a couple of weeks ago? She did it by hammering him with his self confessed chumminess with white, segregationist Democratic Senators, and by helping to put the kibosh on forced federal busing, both of which should be sensitive and compelling issues for African American voters. But while the NBC News/WSJ poll shows Harris surging nationally, a look at a specific breakdown number shows a problem for Harris. When you look at the poll among African American voters, Biden still leads Harris by a strong 37-17 margin, still lapping her in the poll. And this is a serious problem for Harris. Personally, I think that Biden’s popularity with black voters is far oversimplified, and monolithic. Because Biden has leaned somewhat on his being Obama’s wing man for eight years, there is a tendency among some people to think that his support in the black community is tied solely to that. But that isn’t true. Biden was in fact an active and powerful advocate for civil rights issues long before Obama picked him as a running mate, and long before it became politically popular, especially among some white voters to do so. When Harris attacked Biden on those grounds in the debate, the effect seems to have been, at least partially, “So? Who are you girl? Biden was fighting for African Americans while you were riding that bus to school.” The black community has known Joe Biden for more than 35 years, and has long ago come to peace with him, Anita Hill and all. In order to bypass Biden in the polls, Kamala Harris is going […]

Son v. Son-in-Law As Don Jr. and Jared Jockey for Top Dog Position In...

It’s well known that anybody Jared doesn’t like, he persuades wife Ivanka to help him eliminate. Jarvanka, thus far, have done away with Steve Bannon, Reince Priebus, John Kelly, Rex Tillerson, H.R. McMaster and possibly Don McGahn. However, one of the people in Jared’s scope now, purportedly, is none other than Don Jr. So, how […]

Trump Gloats On Economy, Writes Himself 3rd Person Love Note

Donald Trump congratulated himself Saturday on strong economic indicators continuing, which he believes will handily carry him into a second term of office. Our Country is the envy of the World. Thank you, Mr. President! https://t.co/2h8mvu16YX — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 6, 2019 You may recall Larry Kudlow admitting to Chris Wallace on Fox […]

Post debate, what next for the Democratic front runners?

Well, that was exciting. In the first round of Democratic debates, if they proved nothing else, the Democrats proved that they’re not going to just stand around on stage like the Hall of Presidents at Disney World. But there is a caveat there for the contenders as well. Last Friday morning, an Iowa Democrat who watched […]
NRA / YouTube Wayne LaPierre NRA Donald Trump ...

Trump and the GOP’s next headache. The NRA.

It’s a moment tailor made for Cecil B DeMille. Charlton Heston, clad in a snowy white robe, and holding a long woof staff, climbs a dais, raises his arms on high, and spreads the sea of turmoil currently surrounding the NRA, leading the organization to the promised land. Ain’t happening Dooley. Heston is as dead […]
NowThis World / YouTube What Does The World Think Of...

LOL! A Disillusioned Trump Voter Vows To Vote ‘Straight Democrats’ In 2020

Now, here’s a hopeful sign. A Trump voter in Ft. Dodge, Iowa who voted for Trump in 2016, has a different point of view for 2020. Here’s a Trump voter in Ft. Dodge who’s going straight #Democrat in 2020. I’ll let him tell you why: pic.twitter.com/tKOdW2eMV4 — John Russell (@heyjohnrussell) June 29, 2019 Sounds like […]

Birtherism, Redux: Donald Trump Jr. Questions Kamala Harris’ Citizenship

The rotten apple doesn’t fall far from the rotten tree, to quote Jay Inslee, with regard to this incident. Donald Trump Jr. saw the following tweet on June 27. Kamala Harris is “not” an American Black. She is half Indian and half Jamaican. I’m so sick of people robbing American Blacks (like myself) of our […]

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