Lindsay Graham looks to be in some trouble in South Carolina, as the 4 most recent polls out of the state are now showing Lindsay Graham tied with Jaime Harrison or slightly behind in the state.
Two polls released Sunday morning show the state of the race, confirming the previous 2 polls showing trouble for Graham.
1. BC Research. Harrison 45%, Graham 43%.
7% are undecided, 5% go to third-party candidate Bledsoe.
Our new polling shows Jaime Harrison is starting to pull ahead of the long-time incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham. Though within the margin of error; momentum in South Carolina is clearly on the side of Harrison. Harrison is increasingly well-positioned to flip this Senate seat in a race that everyone must now place onto the list of most competitive races in the country. Harrison leads Graham inside the margin of error, 45% to 43%.
The reason for Graham’s weakness in this otherwise reliably red state? There are many. For one, Trump is relatively unpopular in South Carolina, and Graham practically crawling into Trump’s behind to make himself Trump’s reliable lackey turns out to be hurting him electorally. Sure, South Carolina is a red state but Trump is only ahead by 7.3% in the aggregate in the state, a state he won by 14.1%.
• A clear majority (55 percent) of voters now disapprove of the job Graham is doing and a similar 58 percent majority of voters say it’s time to elect someone new, while less than a third (32 percent) of voters feel he deserves to be re-elected.
• Strong headwinds are working against the incumbent as the vast majority (59 percent) of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
• The more voters in South Carolina get to know Harrison the more they like him and move toward supporting him for Senate. Meanwhile, Graham’s favorable thermometer is now at a cool 42 out of 100, nine points lower than Harrison’s rating.
When incumbents are in the low to mid 40s that usually spells big trouble as most of the undecided voters end up with the challenger, historically. What compounds Graham’s troubles is that he has high job disapproval and a strong majority of respondents, 58%, believe it is time to elect someone new while only 32% think that Graham deserves re-election.
Today is a day that so many people believed would never come: a new poll has us BEATING @LindseyGrahamSC by two points.
My life is proof the American Dream is alive and well. This campaign is yet another example of that. In 37 days, we are going to make history. ???????????????????????? pic.twitter.com/sQIzNLDvvL
— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) September 27, 2020
2. Yougov. Graham 45%, Harrison 44%.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the group is in South Carolina, a reliably Republican state where Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison has pulled almost even with incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham. We find Graham just a point up, with more South Carolina voters saying he agrees with Mr. Trump too much, rather than the right amount.
The other 2 recent polls showed the race exactly tied or at just +1% for Graham.
3. Quinnipiac, Graham 48%, Harrison 48%.
SOUTH CAROLINA: SENATE RACE
Senator Lindsey Graham, who is seeking his fourth term in the U.S. Senate, is tied with his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. Forty-eight percent of likely voters support Graham, while 48 percent support Harrison.
Ninety-three percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the Senate matchup say their minds are made up, and 6 percent say they may change their minds.
Likely voters have a mixed opinion of Senator Graham, with 44 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of him, while 49 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Jaime Harrison, 47 percent have a favorable opinion, while 34 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
Likely voters say 48 – 24 percent that Harrison is honest, and they say 49 – 40 percent that Graham is not honest.
When asked if the candidates care about average people, voters say 55 – 25 percent that Harrison cares, while they are split when it comes to Graham. Forty-five percent say he cares about average people, and 48 percent say he does not.
“A victor by almost 16 points back in 2014, Senator Graham stares down the first real test of his Senate tenure. Outspent and accused by some of being a Trump apologist, he is in a precarious tie,” added Malloy.
Graham is underwater on favorability, 44% have a favorable opinion while 49% view him unfavorably, an unfavorable rating of -5%, while Harrison has a 47% favorable to 34% unfavorable rating, a favorable rating of +13%. Harrison wins big on “honesty” and on whether the candidate cares about average people.
4. Morning Consult, Graham 46%, Harrison 45%.
- Graham is tied with Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, 46% to 45%, consistent with polling since July.
- Graham leads Harrison among white likely voters, 58% to 32%, while Harrison has a 70-point lead among Black voters, 81% to 11%.
Turnout is key.
Graham has been polling neck and neck with his Democratic rival, Jaime Harrison, in a state otherwise viewed as solidly red. In the latest daily Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking, conducted Sept. 11-20 among 764 likely South Carolina voters, the race was statistically tied, 46 percent to 45 percent, consistent with the state of the contest since daily tracking began in mid-July. Harrison and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden both have 95 percent support among Democrats, while independents are split on the two races: Harrison and Graham are even at 39 percent, and Trump’s lead over Biden, 44 percent to 40 percent, in the presidential race is also within the sample’s margin of error.
Graham’s weakness compared to Trump in South Carolina polling has so far appeared to come mainly from Republican voters: While Trump has support from 93 percent of Republicans, Graham has support from 84 percent in the same poll — making him one of the worst-performing GOP incumbents up for re-election this cycle among voters from his own party.
While GOP strategists believe that the Supreme Court fight will ultimately help Graham in the state with conservative base voters Graham’s rank hypocrisy works against him, as he had a “read my lips” moment when saying “keep the tape” when he urged anyone to use his words against him if he turncoated on his statement that in the last year of a presidential term there should be no Supreme Court nomination and confirmation. And, turncoat he did in spectacular fashion.
South Carolina state Sen. Brad Hutto, the Democrat who ran against Graham in 2014, said the Supreme Court fight may help Graham with the GOP base, but it will also make him out to be a “flip-flopping liar” to those independents and conservatives who are not motivated by social issues, given Graham’s statements in 2016 opposing an election-year nomination of a Supreme Court justice. The message has been echoed by Harrison’s campaign and its allies in the days since Ginsburg’s death.
“That latter group is Jaime’s target,” Hutto said on Monday. “Jaime was never going to get base Republicans.”
For his part, Harrison is putting Graham’s shameless hypocrisy front and center:
My grandpa always said that a man is only as good as his word. Senator Graham, you have proven your word is worthless.pic.twitter.com/CvIDjHlWY8
— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) September 19, 2020
.@LindseyGrahamSC said: "The rules have changed as far as I’m concerned."
Proving that he was the kid on the playground who made up the rules for "Tag" as he played. ????♂️https://t.co/ZeDD59rHbM
— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) September 22, 2020
— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) September 25, 2020