Friday, July 10, 2020

Joseph "Murfster35" Murphy

Joseph "Murfster35" Murphy is a lifelong liberal political junkie. Being born and raised in Chicago, he is no stranger to bare-knuckle politics. He spent 20 years working for United Airlines, and another 9 as a fraud prevention expert for a large online retailer. He is the author of President Evil: The rise of Trump in the 2016 primaries and its sequel President Evil II: A Clodwork Orange. Joseph Murphy is a writer at Politizoom and a regular contributor to posts at Daily Sound and Fury. Email:

Charlie Cook Said It, Not Me. What It Means.

Friends, you have to buy. Enemies you can get for free   Old German saying Politically, I choose my friends carefully. When it comes to politics, I take pride in my work, I don’t want to hear what makes me feel good, I want to hear what is. And as a result, there are three people I trust when it comes to the national mood, and polling in particular. There is Nate Silver at, there is Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia with his Crystal Ball, and there is Charlie Cook, who publishes the Cook Political Report. Those are my go to guys when shit gets real. Like his brothers, Sabato and Silver. Charlie Cook is neither Democratic nor Republican, the numbers are his religion, and he follows them faithfully. And he has the record to back up his predictions and reporting. And being a careful man, Cook avoids hyperbole and superlatives. Which makes what just appeared in The Cook Political Report even more shocking. Because, based on everything that Cook and his staff are looking at, they are coming to the conclusion that what we are looking at come November is nothing short of a Democratic Tsunami. And I mean that Charlie Cook is looking at everything! Cook isn’t just looking at national presidential polling, or battleground polling, he’s also looking at Senate polling, national mood polling, district polling, and most under reported and under appreciated, fund raising. But based on everything that Cook and his staff are looking at, they are coming slowly to the conclusion that what we’re looking at is a massacre of the Republicans at the hands of the Democrats in November. Full stop. This is why that’s important. Donald Trump is delusional, as are his followers, and nothing that Charlie Cook is going to say is going to sway him or his supporters ome iota, it’s all just FAKE NEWS! But one level below Trump, you have a whole shit load of incumbent GOP Senators that are all vulnerable , and they are all reality based. And as career politicians, they are pretty much immune to Trump’s bullshit. Unlike Glorious Bleater, these vulnerable Senators actually pay attention to reality based polling and numbers. And they’re all going the wrong way. In what alternate universe does a former state Democratic Chair poll 42-42 against GOP powerhouse Leningrad Lindsey Graham 4 months before an election in blood red South Carolina, and out fund raise him two quarters in a row? The thing that has to be most unsettling for these candidates is the fund raising numbers. One of the benefits of incumbency is having a built in donor base. The fact that these candidates are being brutalized in fundraising by local and national grassroots fund raising efforts has to worry them. And at long last, you can add in The Lincoln Project firing off ads at GOP Senators who have for so long enabled Trump’s lunacy. The handwriting is on the wall. Pedal to the metal, just do the work. The signs are there, and more and more people are starting to see it. Trump’s mental and political breakdown are going to lead to a brave new world. Keep the pressure up and watch the dominoes tumble. To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity […]

Excuse Me, New Hampshire? Just A Word To The Wise.

Out damn spot!   William Shakespeare   Macbeth Hi New Hampshire, remember me? I few days ago I sent you guys a little love and commiseration about Saturday being your turn in the barrel. But I just learned something new, and now, unfortunately, it’s time for a little tough love. And unlike that ass gasket Dr Phil, we don’t do commercial breaks on this show. The Tulsa Department of Health didn’t really sugar coat it much today. In pretty direct language, they held El Pendejo Presidente directly responsible for what they call a spike in their coronavirus reporting. What makes this even more chilling is that Tulsa was already in the middle of a spike when His Lowness oozed in for a visit. I’m not going to repeat the numbers, you all know my coronavirus catechism by now. But the simple fact that the city of Tulsa was able to not only identify, but trace the contact point for the latest spike tells you two things. One, it ain’t good, and two, it’s only going to get worse. And now Swami Thunder Nuts is going to descend on Portsmouth, New Hampshire, like a plague of locusts, on Saturday. New Hampshire is not a natural fit for His Lowness at this point in the calendar. Trump narrowly lost New Hampshire in 2016, and it is not a deep red state where a large, friendly greeting is assured, hence holding the damn rally at an airplane hangar. And New Hampshire is different from Trump’s other recent visiting spots because it has busted its ass to keep the coronavirus under control. So here’s the tough love my friends. Portsmouth, and the state of New Hampshire? Donald Trump is a mobile coronavirus Golden Corral buffet. And you don’t even have to wait until Saturday, his advance teams have this nasty habit of testing positive for coronavirus wherever they show up. Do your constituents a favor. Do yourselves a favor. Do something! Look, I know that you can’t stop The Cheeto Prophet from plunking down onto the tarmac at Portsmouth for a visit, but you can control the event. That hangar is on city and state property. Sign an order mandating that facial coverings must be used while on the property, and that police will remove those who refuse to comply. Here’s even a better one. You know the hangar. Get the measurements. Calculate the total number of people that could be contained in that hangar within fire marshal limits. Then calculate how many people can be contained in that hangar with proper social distancing protocols, and strictly limit the attendance to that number. But you have to do something! All of you, the local and state governments, your constituents, all of you worked too hard and sacrificed too much to keep the virus under control to throw it all away at the whim of The Great Pumpkin. Because if you don’t, you’re all going to hate yourselves 21 days from now, when you have to stand in front of the cameras and solemnly announce that there is a spike in the coronavirus in Portsmouth thanks to Il Douche. Take the bull by the horns, and save your state. To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got […]
CBC News / YouTube Donald Trump talks possible impeachment Michael...

I Believe Mary Trump. Here’s Why.

Yeah, yeah, we did it. So what? We pre-ordered Marty Trump’s book last night. Nota Bene I have steadfastly refused to pick up a single one of the 26,289 books so far on Trump, his campaign, or his presidency. Why should I? I have spent the last 5 years in his hip pocket, paying close attention, mostly so I could sit down and tell youze guyz all about it. Why do I want to read about that shit in my spare time? But Mary’s book has an attraction that I’m just totally unable to resist. Not only is Mary the first actual family member to write about Trump, rather than a friend or employee, but she is also a certified, practicing clinical psychologist. She has spent her entire life observing and interacting with Trump, and as a psychologist, is actually qualified to make diagnoses of Trump based on his behavior and actions. And she does, long sections that were read last night were written dispassionately, describing things, and then providing a possible diagnosis. That kind of thing gets to me. Here’s a perfect example. One of the more controversial sniglets has to do with Trump’s college days. After high school, Trump attended Fordham University, but according to Mary, to increase his influence in his fathers company after graduation, he decided that only a diploma from the University of Pennsylvania would do, If only for bragging rights. Trump already had his sister Mary Anne doing his homework for him, but worried about his GPA, he hired a fellow student who was a whiz at tests to take his SAT’s for him to ensure he got into Wharton. This revelation floored me. Because to me it meant that, all the way back at the age of 18 or 19, Donald Trump had already chosen his path in life. And that path was being a lazy, useless moron, built entirely for image rather than substance. Any college degree that Trump obtained wasn’t worth the paper it was printed on, since he absorbed absolutely none of the information that was being imparted to him, but the fact that he paid for a degree from Wharton showed that he already knew the secret to starting higher up was a fancy college name. Fit that in with what we see every day. Of course, Trump and the White House are furiously disputing that claim in the book, along with pretty much everything else she writes. Good luck with that message, it would be easier if we didn’t have examples every day that tend to prove that what she is writing is true. But there’s actually a very practical reason why it would not be a good idea for Mary Trump to lie about this stuff. It could be disastrous for her. Trump, his sister Mary Anne, and his brother Robert all went to court and sued to try to stop Mary from publishing the book. Their reason was that she was violating a, what else with Trump?, non disclosure agreement she and her brother signed to settle a lawsuit regarding Fred Sr’s estate. While the judge ruled that publication could go forward, he has yet to rule on whether or not Mary is actually bound by the NDA. Mary’s reasoning is simple. She feels free to publish because the NDA is null and void, since the lawsuit settlement is based […]
GOP / YouTube Watch Live Trump Rally in Las...

Another Day, Another Trump rally. What Could Go Wrong?

I stood like this, ma. *boxers stance* But not for long.   Curly Howard I give up. I mean, we are truly crossing the line into the theater of the absurd. Even mental institutions will only catch a patient banging his head off a wall so many times before they move him to a room with nice soft padding. If all goes well(?) it looks like Saturday it’s Portsmouth New Hampshire’s turn in the barrel. After a couple of weeks of screaming, crying, and pouting about the abysmal performance and crowd at the Tulsa rally, Trump is climbing back in the saddle and galloping off to whack his head on another low hanging branch. First, a quick review. A couple of weeks ago, His Lowness held a pathetic excuse for a rally in coronavirus swept Tulsa, Oklahoma. He was slammed for the gathering in a closed venue, no masks, and a lack of social distancing, even though each person could have had their own row. He got hit harder when video showed event employees trying to move people closer together to make the crowd look larger for the cameras. The size of the spike Trump created at this circus buffet is unknown, it’ll take another week or so for those numbers. A couple of days later, Trump packs another 3500 young supporters (The Twitler Youth?) into a mega church in Phoenix, being as badly hammered as Tulsa, for an hour and a half. Again, slammed for no masks, and packing them in like sardines. Again we will have to wait for concrete numbers on the damage assessment for that rally to properly assess blame. But never let it be said that the Trump campaign is incapable of learning from past stupid mistakes. They did, so now they’re setting out to make a brand new, fresh, stupid mistake. Saturday’s rally is scheduled to be held at an open airport hanger. Masks will be handed out to attendees, and the campaign says that this time they’ll  be encouraged to use them. The rationale is obvious. By using an open venue, the campaign is hoping to stifle criticism for packing people together into enclosed places. The problem is that it’s a stupid idea, and it won’t work. First of all, the hanger is open on two sides, with two walls, and a roof, so already you’re cutting the air circulation capacity. And second, they won’t be able to practice social distancing, since the hangar will likely hold less than 5000 people, and if you set them up 6 feet apart, the crowd wouldn’t be worth the effort. The campaign is trying to reap the benefits of an outdoor gathering without taking the necessary steps to ensure personal safety. Outdoor gatherings are safer than indoor gatherings, but only when the rules are followed! Family units in a park or beach can sit together, but should still be maintaining a distance of at least 6 feet on all sides from outsiders. But the Trump campaign is going to jam them cheek-to-jowl together in that hanger, and claim it’s safe because it’s being held outside. The Trump campaign is going to catch shit for this stunt, simply because there has already been public pushback against it. The Mayor of Miami Beach closed the beaches for the holiday weekend specifically because it was impossible to […]

For God’s Sake, Just Call It What It Is!

After weeks of skull sessions and endless meetings, the Trump White House is finally ready to roll out their new media messaging strategy to deal with that pesky coronavirus thingy. The new messaging campaign? It’s here, learn to live with it. Really, that‘s it? One question. What the fuck do you think we’ve been doing for six months while you stumbled and fumbled around like a series of out takes from a Chris Farley movie? Suggestion. We actually don’t need seven words of GOP salad to make the same point, only two words. Total. Capitulation. That says it perfectly. Coming soon from a Trump rally stage near you; Just get used to the damn virus. Yeah, we took a half ass stab at it, but it was too hard. Fuck it, I gotta get back to campaigning. But if you’re alive in November, make sure to vote for me, cuz the stock market is doing great! Trump never took the pandemic seriously, because it was too complicated for his brontosaurus sized brain, and he couldn’t see how it would affect him.  But then the mostly national lockdown tanked the economy, and caught his attention. But he insisted on treating it as a political problem, which was the economy, and as a result he ordered GOP Governors to reopen for business to prop the stock market back up. Now, it’s out of control, so he’s just washing his hands of the whole damn thing. But it’s not only Trump that’s cashing in his chips. So is Ron DeSantis in Florida, Brian Kemp in Georgia, Greg Abbott in Texas, and Doug Ducey in Arizona. They all followed the Imbecile in Chief over the cliff on this thing, and now they’re desperately trying to paddle back to shore. All of them have clawed back some or all of the early re-opening of their states, and Abbott actually signed an order mandating facial coverings in public. But what’s the real GOP slogan when it comes to dealing with the coronavirus? Let the fucking thing burn itself out. Several weeks ago, in an article about these states throwing their doors wide open again, I predicted that the almost inevitable outcome of this tactic would be a war within the states. And that’s exactly what’s already starting to happen. The judge of Harris county in Texas, which contains Houston, had a stay-at-home order for the county, until Governor Abbott stripped her of that authority in order to re-open the state. She is now demanding that authority back so she can lock the county down again until this is under control. The sheriff in the meat packing county in South Dakota is at open war with the Governor over restoring restrictions there. Phoenix’s Mayor is hammering Ducey for the authority to shut Phoenix back up again. And the Mayor of Miami Beach is shutting things down outside on DeSantis’ orders, and almost daring him to object. This is happening in GOP states that rushed to reopen all over. And it’s something to keep in your back pocket in the next year or so. Because these Governors want nothing to do with that damn virus anymore, and I’m betting that they’ll be happy to cede that authority, in the hopes that it will fail, and they can say Say, I told you so! You’ll really see this start […]
Guardian News / YouTube Five times Donald Trump refused to...

The “Likability” Issue

Yesterday. All my troubles seemed so far away. Now I need a place to hide away   The Beatles   Yesterday It’s pure music to my ears. Over the last 7-10 days I’ve been hearing it more and more on both MSNBC as well as CNN, and unlike Don McLean’s American Pie, I never feel like changing the station when it comes on.   Both the White House, but especially the campaign are confused and tres irritated, because they can’t seem to formulate a coherent message to run on. They wanted to run on the economy, but even with the partial recovery of the stock market, they can no longer ride that horse over the finish line. Then they tried to pass the coronavirus off as some minor irritant that would one day magically disappear, but that isn’t working out either. And in that Vacuum, Trump is stepping in with even more virulent racism and nativism to fill the void, in direct contradiction of the national mood of the moment. The real reason for their stumbling and fumbling comes from the fact that after all of this time, they have yet to be able to come up with a handle for Joe Biden. Their original plan was to paint Biden as as corrupt as Hillary Clinton. But thanks to his inept stupidity, Trump got caught out in trying to extort the Ukraine into digging up existent or non existent dirt in such a public way, and the notion so thoroughly debunked, that it had to be pulled off of the table. Then they tried to paint Biden as old, feeble, and mentally unfit for the job. But seniors only had to compare the two side by side, and now Trump is losing the senior vote. They are reduced to hammering Biden on China, which isn’t resonating. The problem is that nobody really likes Donald Trump. How can you? The man is a pig on two legs. Even Trump’s supporters don’t really like him. That Trump’s supporters love about Trump is his persona. They love Trump because he says, and actually does the kinds of things that they’d love to say and do themselves, if only they didn’t have bosses and spouses to answer to. They live vicariously through Trump’s antics. 2016 was tailor made for Trump. Because a whole lot of people really didn’t like his opponent either, Hillary Clinton. Just think of your own office politics. It’s always easier to be acceptable when slamming the boss nobody likes than the one that buys pizza for the office. Trump didn’t have to make himself more popular, he just had to make Clinton less popular. And for a lifelong sexist, misogynist, and serial liar, and considering his base, it was doable. That won’t work in 2020 because too many people just flat out like Joe Biden. Is Biden the answer to every problem? Of course not. But over a 40 year history in politics, Biden has proven by consistency to be a decent, friendly, approachable, moral man of faith and compassion, and more than educated enough to handle the cascade of issues that beset a President. In other words, everything Trump isn’t. In the primaries, the #1 word that was on the lips of every pundit and Democratic primary voter was Elect-ability. Who could actually beat Trump in a long, grueling, negative campaign. But as the campaign has ground on, it turns out that likability has […]

The Gift That Keeps On Giving. Forever?

Oops, I did it again   Brittney Spears Because he will never take the safe way, never admit to an error, never think before he speaks, never think anything through before he acts, and most of all because he will never shut up!, both myself as well as a whole lot of other people like to refer to El Pendejo Presidente as The gift that keeps on giving. But according to one senior GOP strategist, we may not even know the half of it yet. A little earlier this evening, Kasie Hunt had veteran GOP strategists Matt Gorman and Michael Steele on Kasie DC. Kasie had run the chat through the current map, polling, and apparent difficulties facing GOP Senators up for reelection this year with Trump on the ballot. Then she moved on to the fact that Trump is already laying the groundwork for claiming in case he loses, and the possible embarrassment to the GOP if he refuses to concede. And that’s when Matt Gorman dropped a neutron bomb onto the set. He told Kasie something like, Kasie, that doesn’t really bother me. Whether he admits defeat and leaves, or whether he has to be escorted onto Marine 1 by the Secret Service on January 20th, either way he is not going to go quietly into that good night. For me the real fun begins on January 21st, when we see what Trump does next. Then he went into detail, and those details were cogent, intelligent, well thought out, and have to scare the living shit out of the GOP. His point was that Trump is an insecure national media whore, and even if he loses in November, will consider himself some sort of GOP elder statesman, or some such shit. Trump has already explored the option of starting up his own television network, and may in fact make that his platform. Or he could get his own show on FUX News, or at least be a frequent contributor. Or he could land at the Sinclair network. But wherever he lands, he will continue to tweet like 1000 bastard maniacs, and those tweets will be full of grievance. Which brings us to 2022. Trump will have two years to fester, and he’ll be loaded for bear. Through tweets, and from whatever other platforms he’s using, he will be vicious in tearing into GOP Governors, Senators, and any surviving House members whom he feels were not sufficiently loyal to him. Two years after his demise, GOP candidates may be faced with the unpalatable choice of having to swear fealty to a deposed madman, just to gain access to his base. And if he’s still alive and kicking in 2024, what’s to say that Trump won’t at least threaten, if not follow through and run for his second term on the GOP ticket? This is truly an apocalyptic scenario for The Lincoln Project, as well as the remnants of the traditional GOP that still exist out there. How do you begin to re-brand, retool, and rebuild when the disaster you’re trying to recover from is still plowing through the house like an 800 lb gorilla? It’s kind of hard to recover from cancer surgery when the damn doctor didn’t get the cancer out in the first place. Also senseless. The real tipping point in this possible crisis will be […]

When Simple And Safe Are Also Smart

The present is the living sum-total of the whole past   Thomas Carlyle When the Oval Office is about to become vacant, the election for a new President is commonly referred to as a change election. Normally, the country has had 8 years of the presidential administration of one party, and the election boils down to whether the people want more of the same, or a change. This was the case in 2016, when an actual minority if inattentive fools forced their opinion on the rest of the country. But normally, when a President is running for his second term, that election is almost always referred to as a referendum election on the performance of the current sitting president. The opposition candidate takes every pot shot that presents itself at the performance of the incumbent, who instead points to his many accomplishments, and lays out a vision for the next four years. God knows that is the kind of election Trump would like 2020 to be. That’s why he stumbles around, standing behind a podium in 2/3 empty buildings, tossing out whimsical and often nonsensical bullshit disguised as the positive accomplishments of himself and his band of flying monkeys. But consider this. Two weeks ago, His Lowness stood behind a podium at a rally and made positive accomplishments out of being able to walk down a ramp, and drink from a glass single handed, two things most people do without even thinking about it every day. The prosecution rests. But as much as Trump would like this to be a referendum election, it is actually going to be something else. It is going to be a contrast election. And it’s going to be a contrast election because it’s in Joe Biden’s best interest to make it one. Normally, the differences between the two parties are pastoral and ideological, and listening to the two sides is as comfortable and calming as reading the Sunday paper in your slippers. But because Donald Trump is so corrupt and corrosive, so vicious and petty, so spiteful and divisive, the most effective way to beat him to to offer battle weary voters a stark. linear.choice. And that’s what Biden is doing. Earlier today on MSNBC, Joshua Johnson played the new ad that the Biden campaign just dropped, on the middle class. When the ad was over Johnson said something like, When I watch that ad, I’m torn. On the one hand it features the middle class and is inspirational, classic Biden. But on the other hand it’s a replay of every Democratic ad for the last 50 years. Is Biden playing it too safe? No Joshua, he’s not. From where I’m sitting, Biden is running a bifurcated media strategy, and he’s doing it flawlessly. More and more frequently recently, when Trump says or does something stupid, or there is negative news or a controversy, Biden is taking directly to the airwaves. He slams Trump for his incompetence and the pathetic results, which covers the referendum part of the equation, but by continuing on to espouse simple, common sense solutions, he covers the contrast base as well. Likewise with the advertising, Trump’s aspirational ads are so blatantly and malignantly misleading that four Pinocchio’s should automatically pop up under the Trump 2020 logo at the end. But Trump’s attack ads can’t just attack, or they wouldn’t be Trump. Instead they’re sarcastic, nasty, and demeaning. Red meat for […]
Official U.S. Navy Page / Flickr Members of U S Navy Riverine...

The Mutiny of “The Bounty”

When the history of the 2020 election is written, it is the story broken by the New York Times, chronicling the scheme hatched by Vlad the Imp to pay a bounty for the lives of US soldiers in Afghanistan that may well have been the final nail in the Trump reelection coffin. For generations now, veterans and active duty military personnel have been two of the richest veins for the GOP to mine. And they worked hard at it. For generations the GOP has portrayed itself as the patriotic party, ready to shovel boxcar loads of cash at the military, and with an almost religious reverence for the veterans who served this country. And now it’s all coming down around their greedy, lying little ears. Donald Trump basically picked up a bullhorn, and bellowed, What a bunch of bullshit! From day one, Trump has done nothing but disrespect both the military as well as veterans. He removed a progressive VA Chief who was trying to drag the agency, kicking and screaming, into the 21st century. He disrespected the days of gold star widow of Sgt. LaDavid Johnson, sloughing off her pain with a cavalier He knew what he signed up for. Trump has repeatedly moved to politicize the armed forces, calling them his army, like some tinpot despot. And even worse, he took tens of millions of dollars of funds earmarked for improvement of bases, especially schools and daycare centers, to build his stupid vanity wall. And he let the Veterans Administration fall even farther into disrepair with a political hack appointee. But it is the crisis currently embroiling the Trump administration over this scandal about Russia paying a bounty for dead American soldiers that is going to have a catastrophic effect on the election. Because it is current, it is visceral, and it is intolerable. The Trump administration has fallen back on it’s traditional strategy of bifurcated bullshit. Call the whole thing a media and Democratic hoax, and then deny that the case against Russia hasn’t  been proven. There is no way that Trump will risk waking up some morning and seeing that Wikileaks has decided to drop a cache of documents showing how the Trump organization has been nothing more than a massive ruble laundromat for decades, obfuscate he must. But that obfuscation is about to tear Trump’s electoral map to shreds. Trump is already down double digits nationally, trailing in every battleground state, and states once thought safe are in play. Now, with that in mind, think about the number of major military installations in the United States, and the number of not only veterans, but families of active service members spread throughout the United States. Trump’s actions have just placed the entire eastern seaboard of the United States in play. There are major military installations in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida. And sailors, soldiers, and airmen know bullshit when they hear it. Trump already alienated the Navy by removing the commander of a nuclear powered aircraft carrier for pleading for assistance for his sailors stricken with the coronavirus. Trump has taken the military for granted from day one. Now, let’s just take a look at all of the military bases in Texas, and Arizona, states where Trump is struggling. The men and women who make the conscious choice to wear the cloth of this […]

Every Poll Has TWO Numbers. Why I’m So Up About Biden

If you ever get annoyed, look at me I’m self employed. I love to work at nothing all day   BTO   Taking Care of Business Many moons  ago, in my street rat days as a Chicago political junkie, I once went to a Democratic gathering. It was actually a cross between a seminar and a convention. My reason for going was to meet my idol, iconic Chicago political reporter, Mike Royko. Meet him I did, and it was everything I had hoped for. But I actually ended up spending a significantly greater amount of time with a man who did more to shape the way I look at politics, and especially polls, than anyone in my life. His name was Jacob Perlman, a successful Chicago Democratic strategist, and long time pollster, a subject that has always fascinated me. He was kind enough to sit down at a table with me, and kill off a couple of bottles of Old Style, while he initiated the rookie. And what he said is one of the reasons I’m so bullish on Joe Biden. Kid, he told me, there are actually two numbers in every poll, and the one you can’t see can be as important as the one you do. The poll number you see is the support for your candidate, but there are actually two kinds of support, hard and soft. And the soft number rises or falls exponentially from the hard number. Let’s say that your candidate has 40% support. Basically you can figure that about 3/4 of that is hard support, people are mostly locked in on him. The other 25% is soft support, maybe they just saw a yard sign, or a billboard, and his was the first name that came to mind when the question was asked. Those are people who could change their minds tomorrow. Now, let’s say your candidates support rises to 45%. That should bring his soft support to 35%, right? It doesn’t, it’s actually at 38-39.5%. Don’t ask me why. I think it’s because as a candidates support number climbs, more people wanna ride the winning horse, so they lock in. All I know is that it is what it is. The Holy Grail is, of course 50%. If you can hit that, then your hard support is 48-49%, and you’re gonna be in it to the finish line. If you can hit 53%, then your hard support is at or above 50%, and unless you’re a Republican in Chicago, there’s no way you can lose! After which he laughed in that way that only Democratic political insiders in Chicago can laugh, malicious glee brought on by a good, old fashioned fix. Jesus, that conversation must have been close to 40 years ago, and I’ve never forgotten it. Partly because as I’ve gone on in my life, I’ve regularly applied Perlman’s Principle as I call it to so many races I’ve watched, and never found it to be off by more than 1%. I don’t know why any more than he did, but as he so aptly put it, it is what it is. This is one of the reasons I’m so high on Biden’s chances, and why I basically said that it’s over as long as we don’t get complacent. The latest Monmouth poll has Biden 53-41% nationally. If you use the Perelman Principle, Biden is actually somewhere between 59-51.5% hard support nationally. But don’t forget, the […]

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