This Oxford model has predicted the winner of the popular vote for 16 of the last 18 elections. Including the 2016 election.
Here’s the link: www.cnn.com/…
Of course there are several caveats to it:
– Not even the most pollyannish of democrats expects Biden to get 65%. We live in a world in which the republican and the democratic candidates will get at least 40-45% of the vote. NO. MATTER. WHAT. A 10 point victory, either way, it’s almost impossible.
– As we all are painfully aware, the popular vote does not pick the president.
– trump and the GOP will do anything, including letting people die to win the election. Anything.
But all things considered, Biden must be feeling pretty good. And believe it is almost a certainty that he will win the popular vote (His margins in California and New York will be enormous). The question remains the fucking electoral college.