When one door closes, another one always opens
Well, better late than never I guess. With Bernie Sanders finally getting around today to formally announcing what the rest of us have known for weeks now, mainly that he ain’t gonna be President, the 2020 Democratic primaries are finally basically over. And while Bernie tries to console his followers with the pap that winning the war of ideas is somehow more important than winning the war for delegates, the rest of us can finally get on with
But thanks to the Republican party, if the Democratic primaries showed us anything, with the Wisconsin primary yesterday it showed us the future. And the future is that the 2020 Presidential election will be like nothing that has come before it..The corona-virus has already cast its pall over the 2020 election process, and that will only continue.
At some point in the future, the corona-virus is finally going to start to recede, like a tsunami that has burned its energy out. But even when the country begins its long trek back towards normalcy, the immediate result is going to be anything but normal. When business offices start to reopen, there may be mandatory testing required, and the great cubicle reoccupation may take place in stages. When restaurants start to reopen, it may be with social distancing restrictions, with an empty table between every two occupied tables. And when retail stores begin to reopen, it may be with employees at the front door, counting the people going in and out to avoid overcrowding.
But by far and away the last thing, the very last thing to return to normalcy will be mass gatherings. Things like movie theaters, concerts, sporting events and festivals. You know, things like mass political rallies. Because of the speed and ease with which the corona-virus spread, leaders are going to be abundantly cautious until there is an effective vaccine available for the virus.
Most political pundits, as well as most of us regular political junkies will tell you that pretty much all elections are base turnout elections. But up until now, the most tried and true method of doing that has been having the candidate jet around the country, talking to the masses and ginning up enthusiasm. But in the age of the corona-virus, that becomes a less and less likely proposition, and the candidates are going to have to find an alternate way to engage.
One would think that this would be a much bigger problem for Trump than for Biden. After all, El Pendejo Presidente gets his enthusiasm for the campaign itself by feeding off of the energy of 15,000 human broccoli screaming LOCK HER UP! But the simple fact is that in 2016, the Trump campaign took President Barack Obama’s groundbreaking work in digital and social media contacting, and took it to a new level, leaving Clinton and the Democrats in the dust. And this is the arena in which the 2020 campaign will most likely be fought.
So, even without the two legged veggie party tray, Trump should be sitting pretty with his already battle tested and tried digital campaign infrastructure. And he would be, if it weren’t for two words. Michael. Bloomberg. Bloomberg’s company was founded on analytics, it is the strength of his operation. And Bloomberg has already promised that vaunted analytics operation, and as much money as needed to keep it running at lightening speed, to the eventual Democratic nominee, in this case Joe Biden. Michael Bloomberg is the great equalizer when it comes to dealing with Trump’s digital media edge, and he’s a great one.
But there is still one more factor, and in fact the most important on, that can control base motivation. And that is the candidates themselves. Personally, if Trump is unable to hold mass rallies, I think he’s at a disadvantage. A part of his power as a motivator is for all of the little Trumplets and Trumpkins sitting at home to watch on TV a 15,000 person roller derby scrum, and feel like they’re part of some invincible army. Without those rallies on FUX News, they’re kind of adrift. Of the Democratic primaries showed nothing else, it showed that Democratic base voters don’t care who the goddamn candidate is, just so long as he kicks Trump’s ass. Biden is a perfectly acceptable candidate for them to rally behind.
But Trump’s biggest problem is in painting a contrast. In 2016, Trump won by making Hillary Clinton look even worse to voters than himself, which is a minor miracle, since His Lowness tends to look like what the dog spewed up after an all night 4 box Milk Bone bender. You can say what you like about Joe Biden, but the one thing that he’s not is a lightening rod to inflame Republican passions. That’s one of the reasons that Trump fears him so much, his persona may be the only one better baked in than Trump’s. You’re not going to motivate the GOP base with Biden.
Now Donald Trump on the other hand is a one car demolition derby that aims for all walls. Trump has done nothing but motivate the Democratic base since the day he befouled the Lincoln bible with his left hand. He motivated the Women’s March on Washington, he motivated with his Muslim ban, he motivated with his tax cut, he motivated with “Brewski” Brett Kavanaugh, he motivated with his inhumane border child separation policy. He motivated the Democrats to a blow out midterm election, and he’s motivating them, along with the suburban GOP voters he turned off now, with his Fuck It attitude in regard to the corona-virus response. Biden doesn’t have to be a superior motivator, because Trump continually does that for him. And just think, The Lincoln Project hasn’t even hit the airwaves yet!
There are miles to go yet, and obstacles to overcome, but with the domination of the corona-virus on the news, November will be here before you know it. Personally, I feel better, and a little more confident because of two of the things I talked about above. Michael Bloomberg will be a huge factor in balancing the scales on digital advertising and messaging. And while there just isn’t anything in Joe Biden that drives the GOP base insane, everything about Donald Trump motivates the Democratic base. Don’t touch that dial.
To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen