This is Merrick Garland’s yearbook:
apropos of nothing, here is Chief Judge Merrick Garland's high school yearbook entry pic.twitter.com/o1eTIimh5F
— Mark Jia (@MarkZJia) October 1, 2018
As you can see, it has none of crude, misogynist madness that is in Kavanaugh’s. It illustrates the stark contrast between a nomination from Obama, and one from Trump. It’s neat, but each nominee seems to be a reflection of the president who nominated him.
Kavanaugh’s nomination has already damaged the Supreme Court. If the allegations against him are substantiated, which I believe they are, it will cause further damage.
I’m going to game out the most hopeful scenario for Democrats if Kavanaugh’s nomination falters this week.
Republicans could still save themselves and whatever little semblance of non-partisanship the Supreme Court enjoys, by nominating Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court seat previously occupied by Anthony Kennedy. It would right an enormous wrong done to Judge Garland, whose nomination was not considered by McConnell’s Senate, and it would be a consensus pick, ideal for Kennedy’s swing vote.
I know, it’s unlikely to happen, unless Democrats sweep all the toss-up Senate races and no confirmations move forward in the lame-duck session.
The target Senate calendar for the rest of this year has the following breaks:
- Oct 8:
- Oct 9 — Nov 12: Election break
- Nov 19 — Nov 23: Thanksgiving break
- Dec 14: Target adjournment date
Once this week is over, we have 9 working days before the senate recess for the election. There are then 5 working days before Thanksgiving recess and another 15 before the Christmas recess. 29 days is likely not enough time to confirm a Supreme Court justice. Maybe McConnell keeps the Senate in session till Dec 21, that adds another 5 days.
But if the Republicans have lost the Senate handily, it’ll be tough to regroup and get a nominee through in the 20-25 days after the election. Here’s the thing, this hopeful scenario only happens if we work our butts off in the eight (yes, there are EIGHT) Senate races which Cook Political rates as “Toss Up”:
- Florida: Bill Nelson
- Indiana: Joe Donnelly
- Missouri: Claire McCaskill
- North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp
- Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema
- Nevada: Jacky Rosen
- Tennessee: Phil Bredesen
- Texas: Beto O’Rourke
The first four are currently held by incumbent Democrats. The last four are held by Republicans. A credit to Democrats, four of these candidates are women.We need to win at least 6 of these eight seats to control the Senate. I’d like it if we won all eight.
This will only happen if we work like hell to GotV between now and November 6th. Believe it or not, millions of voters don’t know when the election is and don’t have a plan to vote. I can tell you that with complete certainty because I’ve been working GotV for months for one of these candidates and I see it every day.
If you want to see a better Supreme Court, if you want to see a better future, please send some support towards these candidates. Money helps, time helps even more. Their campaign websites all have donation and volunteer links, use them. Please.
- Bill Nelson (FL)
- Joe Donnelly (IN)
- Claire McCaskill (MO)
- Heidi Heitkamp (ND)
- Kyrsten Sinema (AZ)
- Jacky Rosen (NV)
- Phil Bredesen (TN)
- Beto O’Rourke (TX)
One final note, there’s another race which is at risk, Bob Menendez’s re-election bid in New Jersey. This should be a lay-up, but Menendez continues to be dogged by a serious corruption scandal. The latest poll has him with a slim 2 point lead in a deep-blue state. Let’s not put ourselves in this position again.